Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Wed Jun 30 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is located about midway between the west coast of Africa and the Windward Islands. This system is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms that continues to show some signs of organization. Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next few days while the system moves west-northwestward at about 20 mph. Interests in the Windward and Leeward Islands should closely monitor this system as it will likely be moving through that region on Friday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. 2. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a tropical wave located just east of the Lesser Antilles. Significant development of this system is unlikely while it moves quickly westward to west-northwestward at 20 to 25 mph, passing through the Lesser Antilles today and then across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea later this week. Regardless of development, this system could bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of the Lesser Antilles during the next day or two. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
Tropical Storm Danny. Advisory Number 2A
BULLETIN Tropical Storm Danny Intermediate Advisory Number 2A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042021 800 PM EDT Mon Jun 28 2021 ...DANNY MAKES LANDFALL JUST NORTH OF HILTON HEAD ON PRITCHARDS ISLAND SOUTH CAROLINA... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.3N 80.5W ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM ESE OF BEAUFORT SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SW OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Edisto Beach to South Santee River South Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Danny was located near latitude 32.3 North, longitude 80.5 West. Danny is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue during the next day or so. On the forecast track, Danny will move inland across southern South Carolina and east-central Georgia tonight and early Tuesday morning. Data from NOAA Doppler radars, earlier reconnaissance aircraft, and surface observations indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is forecast, and Danny is expected to weaken to a tropical depression later tonight and dissipate by late Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. A wind gust of 34 mph (55 k/h) was recently reported at Beaufort Airport in South Carolina. The minimum central pressure based on surface observations is estimated to be 1010 mb (29.82 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Danny can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in the warning area during the next few hours. RAINFALL: Danny could produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall with locally higher amounts along the immediate coasts of Georgia and southern South Carolina. This region has been dry, limiting potential widespread flooding impacts, however, local flooding impacts, especially in urban areas along the southern South Carolina and Georgia coasts, cannot be ruled out at this time. Farther inland, 1 to 2 inches of rainfall is possible across Upstate South Carolina, the Piedmont of Georgia, and into northeastern Alabama. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Port Royal Sound, SC to South Santee River, SC...1 to 3 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. TORNADOES: An isolated tornado will be possible this evening along the South Carolina coast.
Tropical Storm Danny . Update Statement
Tropical Storm Danny Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042021 305 PM EDT Mon Jun 28 2021 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... Doppler radar data from Charleston, South Carolina, along with preliminary data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft, indicate that the depression has strengthened and is now Tropical Storm Danny. The maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. A Weatherflow station at Folly Beach, South Carolina, recently reported a wind gust of 41 mph (66 km/h). SUMMARY OF 305 PM EDT...1905 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.2N 79.7W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM ESE OF BEAUFORT SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 325 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1014 MB...29.94 INCHES
Tropical Depression Four. Advisory # 1A
Tropical Depression Four Intermediate Advisory Number 1A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042021 200 PM EDT Mon Jun 28 2021 ...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING TROPICAL DEPRESSION LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.2N 79.3W ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM ESE OF BEAUFORT SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.92 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Edisto Beach to South Santee River South Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Four was located near latitude 32.2 North, longitude 79.3 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of the tropical cyclone should make landfall along coast of South Carolina within the warning area later this evening. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is expected today, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm before it makes landfall. Rapid weakening is forecast after landfall occurs. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is currently investigating the cyclone. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1013 mb (29.92 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Four can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area by late this afternoon, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. RAINFALL: The depression could produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall with locally higher amounts along the immediate coasts of Georgia and southern South Carolina. This region has been dry, limiting potential widespread flooding impacts, however, local flooding impacts, especially in urban areas along the southern South Carolina and Georgia coasts, cannot be ruled out at this time. Farther inland, 1 to 2 inches of rainfall is possible across Upstate South Carolina, the Piedmont of Georgia, and into northeastern Alabama. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Port Royal Sound, SC to South Santee River, SC...1 to 3 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.
6/28 Tropical Update.
Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Mon Jun 28 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. A well-defined low pressure system located about 190 miles east-southeast of Hilton Head Island, South Carolina, is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms mainly west of the center. However, any additional increase in organization of the thunderstorm activity would result in the issuance of advisories for a tropical depression or tropical storm later this morning or afternoon. The low is forecast to move west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph, and the system should reach the coast of southern South Carolina or Georgia by this evening. If advisories are initiated, then tropical storm warnings could be required for a portion of the Georgia and South Carolina coasts with short notice. Regardless of development, a few inches of rain are possible along the immediate coasts of Georgia and southern South Carolina through Tuesday. An Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. 2. A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is producing a small cluster of showers and thunderstorms over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean. Some slow development is possible through the end of the week while this system moves quickly westward to west-northwestward at about 20 mph, likely reaching the Lesser Antilles Wednesday night. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
6/27 Tropical Update (8pm)
Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Sun Jun 27 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. A small low pressure system is located about 425 miles east-southeast of Savannah, Georgia. The associated shower and thunderstorm activity has become less organized since earlier this afternoon, becoming displaced to the northwest of the surface center due to strong upper-level winds. The low is forecast to move quickly west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph, crossing over the warmer waters of the Gulf Stream Monday morning, and it has some potential to become a tropical depression or tropical storm before reaching the coast of Georgia or southern South Carolina by Monday evening. If the system becomes more organized overnight or on Monday, then tropical storm warnings could be required for a portion of the Georgia and South Carolina coasts with short notice. Regardless of development, a few inches of rain are possible along the immediate coasts of Georgia and southern South Carolina through Monday night. An Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system Monday afternoon, if necessary. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. 2. An area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is producing a small cluster of showers and thunderstorms over the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. Some slow development is possible through the end of the week while this system moves quickly westward to west-northwestward at about 20 mph, likely reaching the Lesser Antilles late Wednesday or Wednesday night. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
6/27 Tropical Update
Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sun Jun 27 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. An area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave located over the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean more than 600 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a small area of showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is possible through the middle of the week while it moves a little faster toward the west and then west-northwest at about 20 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. 2. A surface trough interacting with an upper-level low is producing a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms about 600 miles east-southeast of the Georgia coast. Surface pressures remain high across the area, and significant development of this system is not anticipated due to dry air and unfavorable upper-level winds. The disturbance is expected to move westward today, and then west-northwestward at about 15 mph on Monday, reaching the coast of the southeastern United States by late Monday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
6/26 Tropical Update
Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Sat Jun 26 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave located over the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Some slow development of this system is possible through the middle of next week while it moves a little faster toward the west and then west-northwest at about 20 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. 2. A surface trough located a few hundred miles southwest of Bermuda is producing a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Surface pressures are currently high across the area, and significant development of this system is not anticipated while it moves westward and then west-northwestward at about 15 mph over the next few days, reaching the coast of the southeastern United States late Monday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
6/24 Tropical Update
Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Thu Jun 24 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity is decreasing this morning to the east of a small area of low pressure located more than 100 miles east-southeast of Barbados. Increasing upper-level winds are likely to prevent further development of this system during the next couple of days while it moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph. This disturbance could produce increased shower activity and some gusty winds while moving across the Lesser Antilles over the next couple of days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. 2. A strong tropical wave has emerged just off the coast of Africa this morning. Although ocean temperatures are still relatively cool over the tropical Atlantic Ocean and are only marginally conducive for development, a small tropical depression could form by early next week while this system moves westward to west-northwestward at about 15 mph across the tropical eastern and central Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
6/22 Tropical Update
Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Tue Jun 22 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Showers and thunderstorms have increased in coverage associated with the tropical wave located more than 500 miles east of the Windward Islands. Some additional development of this disturbance is possible over the next couple of days before upper-level winds become less conducive for further organization by Thursday. The system is expected to move westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.