Tropical Storm Elsa Local Statement Advisory Number 24
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL AL052021
509 AM EDT Tue Jul 6 2021
This product covers Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia
**TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT ACROSS INTERSTATE 75
CORRIDOR AND COASTAL SOUTHEAST GEORGIA**
NEW INFORMATION
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* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Baker, Bradford,
Coastal Camden, Coastal Glynn, and Union
- The Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm
Warning for Central Marion, Gilchrist, Suwannee, Western
Alachua, and Western Marion
* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Central Marion,
Gilchrist, Suwannee, Western Alachua, and Western Marion
- A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Baker, Bradford,
Coastal Camden, Coastal Glynn, Eastern Alachua, Eastern Marion,
Echols, Hamilton, Northern Columbia, Southern Columbia, and
Union
* STORM INFORMATION:
- About 440 miles south of Jacksonville FL
- 24.1N 82.4W
- Storm Intensity 60 mph
- Movement North-northwest or 340 degrees at 12 mph
SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------
Tropical Storm Elsa is forecast to track northward toward the west
coast of the Florida peninsula today and move into the northern
portions of the peninsula late tonight into Wednesday, weaken, and
then move northeastward through southeast Georgia Wednesday. Some
of Elsa impacts will begin to affect the region as early as this
afternoon and evening with rainbands moving up from the south. Gusty
winds of 40 to 50 mph will be possible ahead of Elsa in the showers
and thunderstorms today. Sustained tropical storm force winds will
arrive later tonight into early Wednesday morning for counties along
and west of Interstate 75. Heavy rainfall and saturated grounds will
enhance the flood risk over inland areas of northeast Florida and southeast
Georgia. Rainfall amounts near 2 to 4 inches with higher amounts to
6 inches are possible. An isolated tornado will be possible over
portions of northeast Florida tonight into Wednesday.
POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------
* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible
extensive impacts across northeast Florida and southeast Georgia. Potential
impacts include:
- Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues.
- Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in
multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may
become dangerous rivers. Flood control systems and barriers may
become stressed.
- Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple
communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed
away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes.
Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with
underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous.
Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out.
Protect against dangerous rainfall flooding having possible limited
to significant impacts across northeast Florida and southeast Georgia.
* WIND:
Protect against dangerous wind having possible significant impacts
across inland northeast Florida and southeast Georgia near the
Interstate 75 corridor and along the southeast Georgia coast. Potential
impacts in this area include:
- Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage
to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings
experiencing window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile
homes damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight
objects become dangerous projectiles.
- Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater
numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several
fences and roadway signs blown over.
- Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways, and access
routes impassable.
- Scattered power and communications outages, but more prevalent
in areas with above ground lines.
Also, protect against hazardous wind having possible limited impacts
across the rest of northeast Florida and rest of inland southeast Georgia.
* TORNADOES:
Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts
across Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia. Potential impacts
include:
- The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
of emergency plans during tropical events.
- A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
and communications disruptions.
- Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
pulled from moorings.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------
* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to check your emergency plan and emergency supplies
kit and take necessary actions to protect your family and secure your
home or business.
When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the
exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging
wind gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes extend well away from the
center of the storm.
If you live in a place particularly vulnerable to flooding, such as
near the ocean or a large inland lake, in a low-lying or poor
drainage area, in a valley, or near an already swollen river, plan to
move to safe shelter on higher ground.
When securing your property, outside preparations should be concluded
as soon as possible before conditions deteriorate. The onset of
strong gusty winds or flooding can cause certain preparedness
activities to become unsafe.
Check on those who may not be fully aware of the situation or who are
unable to make personal preparations.
Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather Radio and local news
outlets for official storm information. Listen for possible changes
to the forecast.
* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org
NEXT UPDATE
-----------
The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Jacksonville FL around 11 AM, or sooner if conditions
warrant.
Elsa Advisory # 24A
BULLETIN Tropical Storm Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 24A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 800 AM EDT Tue Jul 06 2021 ...ELSA JUST WEST OF KEY WEST... ...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.5N 82.6W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM W OF KEY WEST FLORIDA ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM S OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * West coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to the Aucilla River, including Tampa Bay A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, Havana, and Artemisa * The Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas * West coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to Ochlockonee River A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Egmont Key to the Steinhatchee River, Florida A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * West of the Aucilla River to the Ochlockonee River, Florida A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * West of the Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass, Florida * Mouth of St. Marys River to South Santee River, South Carolina A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in the Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic coast should monitor the progress of Elsa. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located near latitude 24.5 North, longitude 82.6 West. Elsa is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn toward the north by tonight. A north-northeastward motion is expected on Wednesday. On the forecast track, Elsa will continue to pass near the Florida Keys this morning, and move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida later today through tonight. On Wednesday morning, Elsa is forecast to make landfall along the north Florida Gulf coast and then move northeastward across the southeastern United States through Thursday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast through tonight, and Elsa could be near hurricane strength before it makes landfall in Florida. Weakening is expected after Elsa moves inland. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. A C-MAN station at Sand Key, Florida, recently measured a wind gust of 52 mph (83 km/h). The Key West International Airport also recently measured a wind gust of 48 mph (77 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions should continue over portions of central and western Cuba during the next several hours. Tropical storm conditions are beginning in the warning area in the Florida Keys and are expected along the Florida west coast later today. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward into west-central Florida and the Florida Big Bend region tonight and early Wednesday, where hurricane conditions are possible. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Florida beginning late tonight and in Georgia and South Carolina Wednesday night and early Thursday. STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal tide levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore winds within the Tropical Storm Warning areas... Southern coast of Cuba...2 to 4 ft The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Englewood, FL to Aucilla River including Tampa Bay...3 to 5 ft Bonita Beach, FL to Englewood, FL including Charlotte Harbor...2 to 4 ft Aucilla River to Ochlockonee River...2 to 4 ft Flamingo, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...1 to 3 ft Craig Key, FL to Dry Tortugas...1 to 2 ft Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass...1 to 2 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Across portions of Cuba through tonight, rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected. This will result in significant flash flooding and mudslides. Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts and impacts this week: Across the Florida Keys into southwest and western portions of the Florida Peninsula...3 to 5 inches with localized maximum totals up to 8 inches through Wednesday, which may result in considerable flash and urban flooding, along with minor to isolated moderate river flooding. Across the rest of Florida...2 to 4 inches with localized maximum totals up to 6 inches through Wednesday night, which may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding. Across portions of southeast Georgia and the Lowcountry of South Carolina, 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals up to 8 inches will be possible, which may result in considerable flash and urban flooding. Across coastal portions of North Carolina into southeastern Virginia...1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches Wednesday night through Thursday night, which could lead to isolated flash and urban flooding. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today through tonight across the Florida Peninsula. The tornado threat will continue on Wednesday across north Florida, southeast Georgia, and the Lowcountry of South Carolina. The tornado threat should shift to the eastern Carolinas and far southeast Virginia on Thursday. SURF: Swells will spread northward across portions of the Florida Keys and the west coast of Florida through early Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details.
Tropical Storm Watch – Alachua County
Tropical Storm Watch
Beginning: 2021-07-05T21:10:00
Ending:
Extension in Area
WESTERN ALACHUA- 510 PM EDT MON JUL 5 2021
…TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT…
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE SOMEWHERE WITHIN THIS AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS
* LOCATIONS AFFECTED – HIGH SPRINGS – NEWBERRY – ARCHER
* WIND – LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND – PEAK WIND FORECAST: 25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH
– THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: POTENTIAL FOR WIND 58 TO 73 MPH – THE WIND THREAT HAS REMAINED NEARLY STEADY FROM THE PREVIOUS ASSESSMENT. – PLAN: PLAN FOR DANGEROUS WIND OF EQUIVALENT STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE. – PREPARE: REMAINING EFFORTS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETED AS SOON AS POSSIBLE. PREPARE FOR SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE. – ACT: MOVE TO SAFE SHELTER BEFORE THE WIND BECOMES HAZARDOUS.
– POTENTIAL IMPACTS: SIGNIFICANT – SOME DAMAGE TO ROOFING AND SIDING MATERIALS, ALONG WITH DAMAGE TO PORCHES, AWNINGS, CARPORTS, AND SHEDS. A FEW BUILDINGS EXPERIENCING WINDOW, DOOR, AND GARAGE DOOR FAILURES. MOBILE HOMES DAMAGED, ESPECIALLY IF UNANCHORED. UNSECURED LIGHTWEIGHT OBJECTS BECOME DANGEROUS PROJECTILES. – SEVERAL LARGE TREES SNAPPED OR UPROOTED, BUT WITH GREATER NUMBERS IN PLACES WHERE TREES ARE SHALLOW ROOTED. SEVERAL FENCES AND ROADWAY SIGNS BLOWN OVER. – SOME ROADS IMPASSABLE FROM LARGE DEBRIS, AND MORE WITHIN URBAN OR HEAVILY WOODED PLACES. A FEW BRIDGES, CAUSEWAYS, AND ACCESS ROUTES IMPASSABLE. – SCATTERED POWER AND COMMUNICATIONS OUTAGES, BUT MORE PREVALENT IN AREAS WITH ABOVE GROUND LINES.
* FLOODING RAIN – LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: – PEAK RAINFALL AMOUNTS: ADDITIONAL 2-4 INCHES, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
– THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE FLOODING RAIN – THE FLOODING RAIN THREAT HAS REMAINED NEARLY STEADY FROM THE PREVIOUS ASSESSMENT. – PLAN: EMERGENCY PLANS SHOULD INCLUDE THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAIN. EVACUATIONS AND RESCUES ARE POSSIBLE. – PREPARE: CONSIDER PROTECTIVE ACTIONS IF YOU ARE IN AN AREA VULNERABLE TO FLOODING. – ACT: HEED ANY FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS. FAILURE TO TAKE ACTION MAY RESULT IN SERIOUS INJURY OR LOSS OF LIFE.
– POTENTIAL IMPACTS: SIGNIFICANT – MODERATE RAINFALL FLOODING MAY PROMPT SEVERAL EVACUATIONS AND RESCUES. – RIVERS AND TRIBUTARIES MAY QUICKLY BECOME SWOLLEN WITH SWIFTER CURRENTS AND OVERSPILL THEIR BANKS IN A FEW PLACES, ESPECIALLY IN USUALLY VULNERABLE SPOTS. SMALL STREAMS, CREEKS, CANALS, AND DITCHES OVERFLOW. – FLOOD WATERS CAN ENTER SOME STRUCTURES OR WEAKEN FOUNDATIONS. SEVERAL PLACES MAY EXPERIENCE EXPANDED AREAS OF RAPID INUNDATION AT UNDERPASSES, LOW-LYING SPOTS, AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. SOME STREETS AND PARKING LOTS TAKE ON MOVING WATER AS STORM DRAINS AND RETENTION PONDS OVERFLOW. DRIVING CONDITIONS BECOME HAZARDOUS. SOME ROAD AND BRIDGE CLOSURES.
* TORNADO – LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: – SITUATION IS FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES
– THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL TORNADOES – THE TORNADO THREAT HAS REMAINED NEARLY STEADY FROM THE PREVIOUS ASSESSMENT. – PLAN: EMERGENCY PLANS SHOULD INCLUDE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL TORNADOES WITH A FEW POSSIBLY INTENSE HAVING LARGER DAMAGE PATHS. – PREPARE: THOSE LIVING IN MANUFACTURED HOMES OR ON BOATS ARE URGED TO RELOCATE TO SAFE SHELTER BEFORE HAZARDOUS WEATHER ARRIVES. – ACT: LISTEN FOR TORNADO WATCHES AND WARNINGS. IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED, BE READY TO SHELTER QUICKLY.
– POTENTIAL IMPACTS: SIGNIFICANT – THE OCCURRENCE OF SCATTERED TORNADOES CAN HINDER THE EXECUTION OF EMERGENCY PLANS DURING TROPICAL EVENTS. – SEVERAL PLACES MAY EXPERIENCE TORNADO DAMAGE WITH A FEW SPOTS OF CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE, POWER LOSS, AND COMMUNICATIONS FAILURES. – LOCATIONS COULD REALIZE ROOFS TORN OFF FRAME HOUSES, MOBILE HOMES DEMOLISHED, BOXCARS OVERTURNED, LARGE TREES SNAPPED OR UPROOTED, VEHICLES TUMBLED, AND SMALL BOATS TOSSED ABOUT. DANGEROUS PROJECTILES CAN ADD TO THE TOLL.
Elsa Advisory # 22A
BULLETIN Tropical Storm Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 22A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 800 PM EDT Mon Jul 05 2021 ...ELSA PASSING JUST EAST OF HAVANA CUBA WITH HEAVY RAINS... ...EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS ON TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.9N 81.9W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM E OF HAVANA CUBA ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM S OF KEY WEST FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * West coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to the Aucilla River including Tampa Bay A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Villa Clara, Mayabeque, Havana, and Artemisa * The Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas * West coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to Ochlockonee River A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * West of the Aucilla River to the Ochlockonee River A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * West of the Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass, Florida A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests in coastal Georgia and the Carolinas should monitor the progress of Elsa. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located by radars from Key West, Florida, and Havana, Cuba, near latitude 22.9 North, longitude 81.9 West. Elsa is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue tonight, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest on Tuesday, and a turn toward the north on Tuesday night. A north-northeastward motion is expected on Wednesday. On the forecast track, Elsa should emerge off the coast western Cuba during the next hour or so, move into the Florida Straits this evening, and pass near the Florida Keys early Tuesday. Elsa is then forecast to move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida by late Tuesday and continuing into Wednesday. Data from the NOAA Doppler weather radar in Key West indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts over water. Some restrengthening is forecast after Elsa moves over the Straits of Florida tonight and over the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is en route to investigate Elsa once the storm moves back over water. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km), mainly north through northeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions should continue over portions of central and western Cuba for the next several hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in the Florida Keys beginning tonight and along the Florida west coast beginning Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward into the Florida Big Bend region within the Tropical Storm Warning area Tuesday night and early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area beginning late Tuesday night. STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal tide levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore winds within the Tropical Storm Warning areas... Southern coast of Cuba...2 to 4 ft The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Englewood, FL to Aucilla River including Tampa Bay...3 to 5 ft Bonita Beach, FL to Englewood, FL including Charlotte Harbor...2 to 4 ft Aucilla River to Ochlockonee River...2 to 4 ft Flamingo, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...1 to 3 ft Craig Key, FL to Dry Tortugas...1 to 2 ft Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass...1 to 2 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Across portions of Cuba tonight, rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected. This will result in significant flash flooding and mudslides. Across the Cayman Islands tonight, rainfall of 3 to 5 inches is expected. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding. Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts and impacts this week: Across the Keys into southwest and western portions of the Florida Peninsula...3 to 5 inches with localized maximum totals up to 8 inches through Wednesday, which may result in considerable flash and urban flooding, along with minor to isolated moderate river flooding. Across the rest of Florida into southeast Georgia and the Low Country of South Carolina...2 to 4 inches with localized maximum totals up to 6 inches through Wednesday night, which may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding. Across coastal portions of North Carolina into southeastern Virginia...1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches Wednesday night through Thursday night, which could lead to isolated flash and urban flooding. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible across south Florida tonight and across the Florida Peninsula on Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward along the southern coast of Cuba tonight. Swells will increase near the Florida Keys and south Florida tonight and spread northward along the west coast of Florida tonight through Tuesday night. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details.
Key Messages – Elsa
Elsa Forecast Cone
Elsa Advisory # 22
TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 500 PM EDT Mon Jul 05 2021 ...ELSA MOVING OVER WESTERN CUBA WITH HEAVY RAINS... ...EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS ON TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.7N 81.9W ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SE OF HAVANA CUBA ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM S OF KEY WEST FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Storm Surge Warning has been issued for the Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to the Aucilla River including Tampa Bay. The Tropical Storm Warning along the Florida west coast has been extended northward and westward to the Ochlockonee River. The Tropical Storm Watch for the Florida Keys north of Craig Key and Florida Bay has been discontinued. The government of Cuba has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for the Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila and Sancti Spiritus. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * West coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to the Aucilla River including Tampa Bay A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Villa Clara, Mayabeque, Havana, and Artemisa * The Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas * West coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to Ochlockonee River A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * West of the Aucilla River to the Ochlockonee River A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * West of the Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass, Florida A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests in coastal Georgia and the Carolinas should monitor the progress of Elsa. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 81.9 West. Elsa is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue tonight, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest on Tuesday and a turn toward the north on Tuesday night. A north-northeastward motion is expected to begin on Wednesday. On the forecast track, Elsa is expected to continue to move over western Cuba for the next few hours, move into the Florida Straits this evening, and pass near the Florida Keys early Tuesday. Elsa is then forecast to move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida on Tuesday and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some restrengthening is forecast after Elsa moves over the Gulf of Mexico tonight and Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions should continue over portions of central and western Cuba for the next several hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in the Florida Keys beginning tonight and along the Florida west coast beginning Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward into the Florida Big Bend region within the Tropical Storm Warning area Tuesday night and early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area beginning late Tuesday night. STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal tide levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore winds within the hurricane watch and warning areas... Southern coast of Cuba...2 to 4 ft The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Englewood, FL to Aucilla River including Tampa Bay...3 to 5 ft Bonita Beach, FL to Englewood, FL including Charlotte Harbor...2 to 4 ft Aucilla River to Ochlockonee River...2 to 4 ft Flamingo, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...1 to 3 ft Ocean Reef, FL to Dry Tortugas including Florida Bay...1 to 2 ft Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass...1 to 2 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Across portions of Cuba tonight, rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected. This will result in significant flash flooding and mudslides. Across the Cayman Islands tonight, rainfall of 3 to 5 inches is expected. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding. Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts and impacts this week: Across the Keys into southwest and western portions of the Florida Peninsula...3 to 5 inches with localized maximum totals up to 8 inches through Wednesday, which may result in considerable flash and urban flooding, along with minor to isolated moderate river flooding. Across the rest of Florida into southeast Georgia and the Low Country of South Carolina...2 to 4 inches with localized maximum totals up to 6 inches through Wednesday night, which may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding. Across coastal portions of North Carolina into southeastern Virginia...1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches Wednesday night through Thursday night, which could lead to isolated flash and urban flooding. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible across south Florida tonight and across the Florida Peninsula on Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward along the southern coast of Cuba tonight. Swells will increase near the Florida Keys and south Florida tonight and spread northward along the west coast of Florida tonight through Tuesday night. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details.
Elsa Advisory # 21A
BULLETIN Tropical Storm Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 21A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 200 PM EDT Mon Jul 05 2021 ...ELSA MAKING LANDFALL ON THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA WHILE BRINGING FLOODING RAINS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.2N 81.6W ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM SE OF HAVANA CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Villa Clara, Mayabeque, Havana, and Artemisa * The Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas * West coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to Suwannee River A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * West coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to the Ochlockonee River A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The Florida Keys from east of Craig Key to Ocean Reef * Florida Bay * North of the Suwannee River to Indian Pass, Florida A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests in coastal Georgia and the Carolinas should monitor the progress of Elsa. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required later today. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located near latitude 22.2 North, longitude 81.6 West. Elsa is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest on Tuesday and a turn toward the north on Tuesday night. On the forecast track, Elsa is expected to continue to move over west-central Cuba for the next several hours, move into the Florida Straits this evening, and pass near the Florida Keys early Tuesday. Elsa is then forecast to move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida on Tuesday and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional weakening is expected while the center moves over land. Some restrengthening is forecast after Elsa moves over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of central and western Cuba today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in the Florida Keys tonight and along the Florida west coast beginning Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the upper Florida Keys by tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Florida Big Bend area beginning Tuesday night. STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal tide levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore flow within the hurricane watch and warning areas... Southern coast of Cuba...2 to 4 ft The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Bonita Beach, FL to Ochlockonee River including Tampa Bay...2 to 4 ft Flamingo, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...1 to 3 ft Ocean Reef, FL to Dry Tortugas including Florida Bay...1 to 2 ft Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass...1 to 2 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Across portions of Cuba today, rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected. This will result in significant flash flooding and mudslides. Across the Cayman Islands today, rainfall of 3 to 5 inches is expected. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding. Rainfall from Elsa will impact portions of the Florida Keys, the Florida Peninsula and the coastal Southeast this week. Amounts of 2 to 4 inches with localized maximum amounts up to 6 inches are expected across Florida and coastal Georgia through Wednesday, which may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding. Coastal portions of South Carolina and North Carolina are expected to receive 1 to 3 inches of rain, with local maximum amounts up to 5 inches Wednesday into Thursday, which could lead to isolated flash and urban flooding. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible across south Florida tonight and across the Florida Peninsula on Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward along the southern coast of Cuba today. Swells will increase near the Florida Keys and south Florida later today and spread northward along the west coast of Florida tonight through Tuesday night. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details.
Forecast Cone
Elsa Advisory # 21
BULLETIN Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 1100 AM EDT Mon Jul 05 2021 ...ELSA NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.5N 81.2W ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM ESE OF CAYO LARGO CUBA ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SSE OF HAVANA CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning along the west coast of Florida has been extended northward to the Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay. The Storm Surge Watch along the west coast of Florida has been extended northward to the Ochlockonee River. The Tropical Storm Watch along the coast of the Florida panhandle has been extended westward to Indian Pass, Florida. The government of Cuba has discontinued all watches and warnings for the Cuban province of Camaguey. The government of Cuba has changed the Hurricane Warning for the Cuban provinces of Cienfuegos and Matanzas to a Tropical Storm Warning, and has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the Cuban province of Artemisa. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Villa Clara, Mayabeque, Havana, and Artemisa * The Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas * West coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to Suwannee River A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * West coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to the Ochlockonee River A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The Florida Keys from east of Craig Key to Ocean Reef * Florida Bay * North of the Suwannee River to Indian Pass, Florida A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests in coastal Georgia and the Carolinas should monitor the progress of Elsa. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required later today. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located near latitude 21.5 North, longitude 81.2 West. Elsa is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) , and this general motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest on Tuesday. On the forecast track, Elsa is expected to move across central and western Cuba later today and pass near the Florida Keys early Tuesday. Elsa is then forecast to move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida on Tuesday and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is expected while the center moves over land. Slight restrengthening is forecast after Elsa moves over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA Hurricane Hunter observations is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of central and western Cuba today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in the Florida Keys tonight and along the Florida west coast beginning Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the upper Florida Keys by tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Florida Big Bend area beginning Tuesday night. STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal tide levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore flow within the hurricane watch and warning areas... Southern coast of Cuba...2 to 4 ft The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Bonita Beach, FL to Ochlockonee River including Tampa Bay...2 to 4 ft Flamingo, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...1 to 3 ft Ocean Reef, FL to Dry Tortugas including Florida Bay...1 to 2 ft Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass...1 to 2 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Across portions of Cuba today, rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected. This will result in significant flash flooding and mudslides. Across the Cayman Islands today, rainfall of 3 to 5 inches is expected. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding. Rainfall from Elsa will impact portions of the Florida Keys, the Florida Peninsula and the coastal Southeast this week. Amounts of 2 to 4 inches with localized maximum amounts up to 6 inches are expected across Florida and coastal Georgia through Wednesday, which may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding. Coastal portions of South Carolina and North Carolina are expected to receive 1 to 3 inches of rain, with local maximum amounts up to 5 inches Wednesday into Thursday, which could lead to isolated flash and urban flooding. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible across south Florida tonight and across the Florida Peninsula on Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward along the southern coast of Cuba today. Swells will increase near the Florida Keys and south Florida later today and spread northward along the west coast of Florida tonight through Tuesday night. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details.