BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Advisory Number 1...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 1100 AM AST Fri Aug 13 2021 Corrected to indicate issuance time of intermediate advisory. ...DISTURBANCE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY SATURDAY... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.3N 49.3W ABOUT 840 MI...1350 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Antigua and Barbuda has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Antigua and Barbuda, St. Kitts and Nevis, and Montserrat. The government of the Netherlands has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Saba and Sint Eustatius. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Antigua and Barbuda, St. Kitts and Nevis, and Montserrat * Saba and Sint Eustatius A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this system. Tropical Storm Watches will likely be required for these areas later today or tonight. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 49.3 West. The system is moving toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this general motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected into early next week. On the forecast track, the system is expected to approach the Leeward Islands on Saturday, move over the Leeward Islands Saturday night and Sunday, and then be near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Sunday night and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical depression tonight and a tropical storm by Saturday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by Saturday night or early Sunday. RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce rainfall of 3 to 6 inches across the northern Leeward Islands Saturday into Sunday. This rainfall may produce scattered areas of flash flooding.
TD Fred Advisory # 16
BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fred Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 1100 AM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021 ...CENTER OF FRED MOVING ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA... ...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.3N 78.4W ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM NNW OF CAMAGUEY CUBA ABOUT 270 MI...430 KM SE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.92 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the provinces of Sancti Spiritus and Villa Clara and has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for the provinces of Las Tunas, Granma, and Holguin. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Florida Keys west of Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas * Florida Bay A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Sancti Spiritus, Ciego de Avila, and Camaguey * The southwest coast of Florida from Englewood south and east to Ocean Reef A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests in the Bahamas, elsewhere in Cuba, and the Florida Peninsula should monitor the progress of Fred. Additional watches and warnings could be required for portions of these areas later today. Interest in the Florida Panhandle should also monitor the progress of Fred. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred was located near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 78.4 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the northwest is expected tonight or Saturday. On the forecast track, Fred is expected to move along or near the north coast of central Cuba through tonight, be near the Florida Keys on Saturday, and move near or west of the west coast of the Florida peninsula Saturday night and Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today. After that, slow strengthening is expected, and Fred could become a tropical storm again tonight or Saturday. The minimum central pressure estimated from surface observations and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 1013 mb (29.92 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Portions of Cuba...2 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. This rainfall may lead to scattered flash flooding. Across the Bahamas...1 to 3 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches. Today through Monday, 3 to 7 inches of rain is anticipated across the Keys, southern and central Florida north towards the Big Bend, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and small stream flooding, and potentially worsen ongoing minor to isolated moderate river flooding over northern Florida. From Sunday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into inland portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the area. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Cuba through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area across the Florida Keys on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Florida beginning Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to spread across portions of the Bahamas and the northern coast of Cuba through tonight. These swells could reach the Florida Keys and southern Florida by early Saturday and increase along the west coast of Florida Saturday night and Sunday. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details. TORNADOES: There will be a risk of isolated tornadoes beginning Saturday afternoon over parts of central and south Florida.
TD Fred Advisory # 15
BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fred Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 500 AM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021 ...FRED CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS ACROSS EASTERN CUBA... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.0N 76.7W ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SSW OF GREAT EXUMA ISLAND ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM ESE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.92 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Watch for the Florida Keys and Florida Bay has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning. The Tropical Storm Watch has been extended northward from Bonita Beach to Englewood, Florida. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Florida Keys west of Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas * Florida Bay A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, and Granma * The southwest coast of Florida from Englewood south and east to Ocean Reef A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests in the Bahamas and elsewhere in Cuba and the Florida Peninsula should monitor the progress of Fred. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required for portions of these areas later today. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred was located near latitude 22.0 North, longitude 76.7 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the northwest is expected tonight or Saturday. On the forecast track, Fred is expected to move along or just north of eastern and central Cuba through tonight, be near the Florida Keys on Saturday, and near the west coast of Florida on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, and Fred could become a tropical storm again later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1013 mb (29.92 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Over Cuba and the eastern Bahamas...1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches. Across the western Bahamas...3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. From today into Monday, 3 to 7 inches of rain is anticipated across the Keys, southern and central Florida north towards the Big Bend, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and small stream flooding, and potentially worsen ongoing minor to isolated moderate river flooding over northern Florida. From Sunday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into inland portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the area. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Cuba through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected across the Florida Keys, in the warning area, on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Florida beginning Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to spread across portions of the Bahamas and the northern coast of Cuba through tonight. These swells could reach the Florida Keys and southern Florida by early Saturday and increase along the west coast of Florida Saturday night and Sunday. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details.
TD Fred Advisory # 13
BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fred Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 500 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021 ...FRED CONTINUING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.3N 75.3W ABOUT 470 MI...760 KM ESE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM E OF CAMAGUEY CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for the Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, and for the southwest coast of the Florida Peninsula from Bonita Beach south and east to Ocean Reef, including Florida Bay. The Meteorological Service of the Bahamas has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for the southeastern Bahamas. The Government of Cuba has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for the provinces of Guantanamo and Santiago de Cuba. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, and Granma * The Florida Keys west of Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas * The southwest coast of Florida from Bonita Beach south and east to Ocean Reef including Florida Bay A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in the Bahamas, Cuba, and the southern Florida Peninsula should monitor the progress of Fred. Additional watches and warnings may be required for portions of these areas tonight and Friday. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred was located near latitude 21.3 North, longitude 75.3 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Friday. A turn toward the northwest is expected Friday night or Saturday. On the forecast track, Fred is expected to move along or just north of eastern and central Cuba tonight and Friday, and be near the Florida Keys and southern Florida on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts, mainly in squalls to the northeast of the center. Little change in strength is expected through tonight. Slow strengthening is expected Friday through Saturday, and Fred is forecast to regain tropical storm strength as it nears the Florida Keys and south Florida. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Over the Turks and Caicos, Cuba and the eastern Bahamas...1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches. Across the western Bahamas...3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. From Friday into Monday, 3 to 6 inches of rain is anticipated across the Florida Keys, the southern and central Florida Peninsula, and north towards the Big Bend of Florida, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and small stream flooding, and potentially exacerbate ongoing minor to isolated moderate river flooding. By early next week, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into other portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central Appalachians and Piedmont. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Cuba tonight through Friday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Florida beginning Friday night. Wind gusts to tropical storm force may occur over portions of the southeastern Bahamas tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to spread across portions of the Bahamas and northern coast of Cuba during the next couple of days. These swells could reach the Florida Keys and southern Florida by early Saturday. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details.
TD Fred Advisory #12
BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fred Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 1100 AM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021 ...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORT FRED REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED... ...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.9N 74.4W ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM W OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND ABOUT 230 MI...365 KM E OF CAMAGUEY CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.92 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Watch for Haiti has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Southeastern Bahamas * The Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, Granma, Santiago de Cuba, and Guantanamo A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in the Bahamas, Cuba, and the southern Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of Fred. A Tropical Storm Watch will likely be issued for portions of the Florida Keys and the southern Florida Peninsula this afternoon. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred was located near latitude 20.9 North, longitude 74.4 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected for the next day or two. A turn to the northwest is expected by Saturday. On the forecast track, Fred is expected to move near the southeastern Bahamas today, move along or just north of eastern and central Cuba later today and Friday, and be near the Florida Keys and southern Florida on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts, mainly in squalls to the northeast of the center. Little change in strength is expected through tonight. Slow strengthening is expected Friday through Saturday, and Fred is forecast to regain tropical-storm strength during that time. The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 1013 mb (29.92 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Across the Dominican Republic and Haiti...3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall through today could lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible rapid river rises and the potential for mudslides. Over the Turks and Caicos, Cuba and the eastern Bahamas...1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches. Across the western Bahamas...3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. From Friday into early next week, heavy rainfall associated with Fred will impact Florida and parts of the Southeast. Through Monday, 3 to 5 inches of rain is anticipated across the Keys and southern Florida Peninsula, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible rapid river rises. WIND: Tropical storm conditions, mainly in brief squalls, are possible in the southeastern Bahamas this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Cuba beginning later today. SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to spread across portions of the Bahamas and northern coast of Cuba during the next couple of days. These swells could reach the Florida Keys and southern Florida by early Saturday. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details.
TD Fred #11
BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fred Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 500 AM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021 ...DISORGANIZED FRED MOVES BACK OVER WATER... ...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.2N 73.5W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSW OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM E OF GUANTANAMO CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Bahamas has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for the Turks and Caicos Islands. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to Gonaives * Southeastern Bahamas * The Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, Granma, Santiago de Cuba, and Guantanamo A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Bahamas, Cuba, and the southern Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of Fred. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred was located near latitude 20.2 North, longitude 73.5 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days, followed by a turn to the northwest. On the forecast track, Fred is expected to move across the southeastern Bahamas today, move along or just north of eastern and central Cuba later today and Friday, and be near the Florida Keys and south Florida on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast today, but slow strengthening is expected Friday and this weekend. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Across the Dominican Republic...3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall this morning could lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible rapid river rises and the potential for mudslides. Over Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, the eastern Bahamas, and Cuba...1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches. Across the western Bahamas...3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Beginning Friday into next week, heavy rainfall associated with Fred will impact Florida and parts of the Southeast. Through Monday, 3 to 5 inches of rain is anticipated across the Keys and the southern Florida Peninsula, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible rapid river rises. WIND: Tropical storm conditions, mainly in brief squalls, are possible along the northern coast of Haiti and the southeastern Bahamas this morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible in Cuba beginning later today. SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to spread across portions of the Bahamas and northern coast of Cuba during the next couple of days. These swells could reach the Florida Keys and south Florida by early Saturday. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details.
TD Fred Advisory #10
BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fred Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 1100 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021 ...FRED PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.5N 72.2W ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM S OF CAP HAITIEN HAITI ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SSE OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Dominican Republic has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for all of the Dominican Republic. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to Gonaives * Turks and Caicos Islands * Southeastern Bahamas * The Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, Granma, Santiago de Cuba, and Guantanamo A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Bahamas, Cuba, and the southern Florida Peninsula and the Florida keys should monitor the progress of Fred. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred was located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 72.2 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h) and a general west-northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected for the next several days. On the forecast track, the center of Fred is expected to be over northern Haiti overnight, move near the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas on Thursday, and move near or north of the northern coast of central Cuba Thursday night and Friday. Dropsonde data from a NOAA reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little, if any change, in strength is expected overnight. Slow re-intensification is forecast to begin by Thursday night. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Across the Dominican Republic...3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall through Thursday morning could lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible rapid river rises and the potential for mudslides. Over Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, the eastern Bahamas, and Cuba...1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches. Across the western Bahamas...3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Beginning Friday into next week, heavy rainfall associated with Fred will impact Florida and parts of the Southeast. Through Monday, 3 to 5 inches of rain is anticipated across the Keys and the southern Florida Peninsula, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible rapid river rises. WIND: Tropical storm conditions could occur in brief squalls over portions of the northwestern coast of the Dominican Republic for a few more hours. Tropical storm conditions, mainly in brief squalls, will also be possible along the northern coast of Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern Bahamas beginning tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in Cuba beginning Thursday. SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to continue across the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola tonight, where they could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
T.S. Fred Advisory #9
BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fred Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 500 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021 ...CENTER OF FRED CROSSING THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.9N 71.0W ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM WNW OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM SE OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dominican Republic on the south coast from Punta Palenque eastward and on the north coast from the Dominican Republic/Haiti border eastward A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to Gonaives * Turks and Caicos Islands * Southeastern Bahamas * The Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, Granma, Santiago de Cuba, and Guantanamo A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Bahamas, Cuba, and the southern Florida Peninsula and the Florida keys should monitor the progress of Fred. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was located near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 71.0 West. Fred is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and a general west-northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected to continue for the next two days or so. On the forecast track, the center of Fred is expected to be over Hispaniola for the next several hours, move near the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas on Thursday, and move near or north of the northern coast of central Cuba Thursday night and Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Fred is expected to weaken to a depression tonight as it crosses Hispaniola. Slow re-intensification is expected beginning Thursday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) mainly to the northeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Across the Dominican Republic...3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall through Thursday morning could lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible rapid river rises and the potential for mudslides. Over Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, the eastern Bahamas, and Cuba...1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches. Across the western Bahamas...3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Beginning Friday into next week, heavy rainfall associated with Fred will impact Florida and parts of the Southeast. Through Monday, 3 to 5 inches of rain is anticipated across the Keys and the southern Florida Peninsula, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible rapid river rises. WIND: Tropical storm conditions should continue over portions of the Dominican Republic for a few more hours. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the northern coast of Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern Bahamas beginning tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in Cuba beginning Thursday. SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to continue across the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola tonight, where they could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
T.S. Fred Advisory #8
BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fred Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 1100 AM AST Wed Aug 11 2021 ...CENTER OF FRED CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF CUBA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.2N 69.7W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SSE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM SSE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, Granma, Santiago de Cuba, and Guantanamo. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dominican Republic on the south coast from Punta Palenque eastward and on the north coast from the Dominican Republic/Haiti border eastward A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to Gonaives * Turks and Caicos Islands * Southeastern Bahamas * The Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, Granma, Santiago de Cuba, and Guantanamo A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Bahamas, Cuba, and the southern Florida Peninsula and the Florida keys should monitor the progress of Fred. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 69.7 West. Fred is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and a general west-northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected to continue for the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Fred is expected to be near or over Hispaniola this afternoon and evening, move near the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas on Thursday, and move near or north of the northern coast of central Cuba on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are now near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected later today and tonight as the center of Fred crosses Hispaniola. Slow re-intensification is expected beginning Thursday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) mainly to the northeast of the center. La Romana, Dominican Republic, recently reported sustained winds of 35 mph (56 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Across the Dominican Republic...3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible rapid river rises and the potential for mudslides. Over Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, the eastern Bahamas, and Cuba...1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches. Across the western Bahamas...3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. By Friday into early next week, heavy rainfall associated with Fred will impact Florida and parts of the Southeast. Through Monday, 3 to 5 inches of rain is anticipated across the Keys and southern Florida peninsula, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible rapid river rises. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are spreading across portions of the warning area in the Dominican Republic, and these conditions should continue today. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the northern coast of Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern Bahamas beginning late today. Tropical storm conditions are possible in Cuba beginning tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Fred are expected to continue across the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico and reach portions of Hispaniola today, where they could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
T.S. Fred Advisory 7A
BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fred Intermediate Advisory Number 7A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 800 AM AST Wed Aug 11 2021 ...CENTER OF FRED JUST SOUTH OF THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.0N 69.1W ABOUT 50 MI...95 KM SE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dominican Republic on the south coast from Punta Palenque eastward and on the north coast from the Dominican Republic/Haiti border eastward A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to Gonaives * Turks and Caicos Islands * Southeastern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in Haiti and the Bahamas, as well as in eastern and central Cuba, should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 69.1 West. Fred is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and a general west-northwestward motion is expected to begin later today and continue for the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Fred is expected to be near or over Hispaniola later today, move near the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas on Thursday, and move north of the northern coast of central Cuba on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is likely while the system interacts with Hispaniola today. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. La Romana, Dominican Republic, recently reported sustained winds of 35 mph (56 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure from NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Over Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic...2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible rapid river rises and the potential for mudslides across Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic. Over Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, eastern Bahamas, and eastern Cuba...1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the warning area in the Dominican Republic later this morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the northern coast of Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern Bahamas beginning late today. SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Fred are expected to continue across the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico and reach portions of Hispaniola today, where they could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
