Remnants of Fred Advisory # 23

BULLETIN
Remnants Of Fred Advisory Number  23...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062021
500 AM EDT Sun Aug 15 2021

Corrected to include Next Intermediate Advisory Time

...REMNANTS OF FRED TRYING TO RE-ORGANIZE INTO A TROPICAL STORM
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.4N 84.6W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM W OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM SSE OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for portions of the
north-central Gulf coast from the Alabama/Florida border eastward
to Ochlockonee River, Florida.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida border to Ochlockonee Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests along the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico from
Alabama to the central Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress
of the remnants of Fred.  A Tropical Storm Warning will likely be
required for portions of the Tropical Storm Watch area later this
morning.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the remnants of Fred were located near
latitude 24.4 North, longitude 84.6 West. The remnants are moving
toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this general
motion is expected to continue through tonight, with a turn toward
the north expected on Monday.  On the forecast track, the system
will cross the southeastern Gulf of Mexico today, cross the
east-central and northern Gulf of Mexico tonight and Monday, and
move inland along the northern Gulf coast Monday night or early
Tuesday morning.

Surface observations indicate that maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Fred is
expected to re-develop into a tropical storm later today, with
gradual strengthening expected while it moves over the Gulf of
Mexico until it makes landfall.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface
observations is 1011 mb (29.86 inches).

 

TS Grace Advisory # 6

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Grace Advisory Number   6...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072021
500 PM AST Sat Aug 14 2021

Corrected rainfall statement in the Hazard section

...SQUALLY WEATHER FROM GRACE SPREADING ACROSS THE LESSER 
ANTILLES...
...HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE LESSER AND GREATER ANTILLES WILL BE A
CONCERN IN THE COMING DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 60.7W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM ESE OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Antigua and Barbuda, Anguilla, St. Kitts and Nevis, and Montserrat
* Saba and Sint Eustatius
* Sint Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* British Virgin Islands
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South coast of the Dominican Republic from Punta Caucedo to Cabo
Engano
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Frances Viejo to
Cabo Engano

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Turks and
Caicos Islands, the southeastern Bahamas, and Cuba should monitor
the progress of Grace.  Additional watches and warnings could be
required for this area tonight or on Sunday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States, 
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor 
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast 
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the 
United States, please monitor products issued by your national 
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Grace was
located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 60.7 West.  Grace is
moving quickly toward the west near 26 mph (43 km/h).  A motion
toward the west-northwest with a gradual decrease in forward speed
is expected during the next several days.  On the forecast track,
the center of Grace is expected to move over the Leeward Islands
tonight, near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Sunday, near or 
over the Dominican Republic Sunday night and Monday, and then near 
or over Haiti Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or two.  Grace 
is likely to weaken while it moves near and across the Greater 
Antilles Monday and Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area in the Leeward Islands tonight, and in the Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico on Sunday.  Tropical storm conditions are possible 
within the watch area in the Dominican Republic Sunday night and 
Monday.

RAINFALL:  Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall 
amounts Saturday into Tuesday:

Over the northern Leeward Islands and Virgin Islands...3 to 6 
inches. This rainfall may produce scattered areas of flash and urban 
flooding.

Over Puerto Rico...3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8  
inches.  Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban and small stream 
flooding and possible mudslides.

Over Haiti and the Dominican Republic...4 to 7 inches with 
isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to 
flash and urban flooding and possible mudslides from Monday into 
Tuesday.

By mid to late next week heavy rainfall from this system could 
impact portions of Cuba, the Bahamas and Florida.

Remnants of Fred Advisory # 21

 

BULLETIN
Remnants Of Fred Advisory Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062021
500 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021

...REMNANTS OF FRED MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST 
GULF OF MEXICO...
...FORECAST TO RE-DEVELOP ON SUNDAY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.0N 84.6W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM WNW OF HAVANA CUBA
ABOUT 510 MI...820 KM SSE OF MOBILE ALABAMA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico from
Mississippi to the central Florida Panhandle should monitor the
progress of the remnants of Fred.  Watches and warnings could be
required for portions of this area tonight or Sunday.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the remnants of Fred were located near
latitude 24.0 North, longitude 84.6 West. The remnants are moving
toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h).  A motion toward
the northwest is expected tonight through Sunday night, with a turn
toward the north expected on Monday.  On the forecast track, the
system will cross the southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight, cross
the central and northern Gulf of Mexico Sunday and Monday, and move
inland along the northern Gulf coast Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Fred is expected to re-develop into a tropical depression late
tonight or on Sunday, with gradual strengthening to a tropical
storm expected after the system re-develops.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for the Remnants of Fred can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL:

Rainfall Statement: Fred or its remnants are expected to produce
the following rainfall amounts:

Through today...
Portions of Cuba...2 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8
inches. This rainfall may lead to scattered flash flooding.

Across the Bahamas...1 to 3 inches, with isolated maximum totals of
5 inches.

Through Monday...
Keys and southern Florida...3 to 5 inches.

From Sunday night into Tuesday...
The Florida Big Bend and Panhandle...3 to 7 inches with isolated
maximum totals of 10 inches.

Southern Alabama...2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals of 6
inches.

Heavy rainfall across portions of Florida and southern Alabama could
lead to areal, urban, small stream and river flooding impacts.

From Tuesday onward...
Heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into inland portions of
the Southeast and into the southern and central Appalachians and
Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the area.

SURF:  Swells generated by Fred or its remnants are expected to
spread across the Florida Keys later this morning and reach the
coast of Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle on Monday.
Please consult products from your local weather office for more
details.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two are possible through Sunday over parts 
of the western Florida peninsula.

TS Grace Advisory # 5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Grace Advisory Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072021
1100 AM AST Sat Aug 14 2021

...GRACE A LITTLE STRONGER...
...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 57.9W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM ESE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Dominican Republic has issued a Tropical
Storm Watch for the south coast of the Dominican Republic from
Punta Caucedo eastward to Cabo Engano, and for the north coast from
Cabo Frances Viejo eastward to Cabo Engano.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Antigua and Barbuda, Anguilla, St. Kitts and Nevis, and Montserrat
* Saba and Sint Eustatius
* Sint Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* British Virgin Islands
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South coast of the Dominican Republic from Punta Caucedo to Cabo
Engano
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Frances Viejo to
Cabo Engano

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Turks and
Caicos Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas should monitor the
progress of Grace.  Additional watches and warnings will likely be
required for this area later today and tonight.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Grace was
located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 57.9 West.  Grace is
moving toward the west near 23 mph (37 km/h).  A motion toward the 
west-northwest with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected 
during the next several days.  On the forecast track, the center of 
Grace is expected to move over the Leeward Islands tonight, over 
the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Sunday, over the Dominican 
Republic on Monday, and then between the southeastern Bahamas and 
Cuba on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or so.  Grace is 
likely to weaken while it moves near and across the Greater Antilles 
Sunday night through Monday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone 
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC 
and on the web at 
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area in the Leeward Islands by tonight or early Sunday, and in the
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico beginning on Sunday.  Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area in the Dominican
Republic Sunday night into Monday.

RAINFALL:  Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts Saturday into Tuesday:

Over the northern Leeward Islands and Virgin Islands...3 to 6
inches. This rainfall may produce scattered areas of flash and urban
flooding.

Over Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic...3 to 6 inches with
isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to
flash, urban, and small stream flooding as well as potential
mudslides.

By mid to late next week heavy rainfall from this system could 
impact portions of Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida.

Fred Remnants Advisory # 20

 

Remnants Of Fred Advisory Number  20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062021
1100 AM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021

...FRED DEGENERATES TO A TROPICAL WAVE...
...FORECAST TO RE-DEVELOP ON SUNDAY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.3N 83.2W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM W OF HAVANA CUBA
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM SW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.92 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning for the Florida Keys has been 
discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico from
Mississippi to the central Florida Panhandle should monitor the
progress of the remnants of Fred.  Watches could be required for
portions of this area later in the weekend.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the remnants of Fred were located near
latitude 23.3 North, longitude 83.2 West. The remnants are moving
toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue today.  A turn toward the northwest is 
expected by tonight, followed by a northward motion by Sunday 
night. On the forecast track, Fred or its remnants are expected to 
pass west of the lower Florida Keys this afternoon, move across the 
eastern Gulf of Mexico tonight through Monday, and move inland over 
the northern Gulf coast Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Fred is expected to re-develop into a tropical depression on
Sunday, with gradual strengthening to a tropical storm expected
after the system re-develops.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1013 mb (29.92 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for the Remnants of Fred can be found in the Tropical 
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 
KNHC and on the web at 
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL:

Rainfall Statement: Fred or its remnants are expected to produce
the following rainfall amounts:

Portions of Cuba...2 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8
inches. This rainfall may lead to scattered flash flooding.

Across the Bahamas...1 to 3 inches, with isolated maximum totals of
5 inches.

Through Monday, 3 to 5 inches of rain is anticipated across the Keys
and southern Florida.  Across the Florida Big Bend and Panhandle, 3
to 7 inches with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches are expected.
Heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and small stream flooding
impacts, and cause new minor flooding across the western Florida
Peninsula and exacerbate ongoing minor to isolated moderate flooding
in northern Florida.

From Monday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into
inland portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central
Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the
area.

WIND: Wind gusts to tropical-storm force are possible in squalls
today across the Florida keys and the southern portion of the
Florida Peninsula.

SURF:  Swells generated by Fred or its remnants are expected to
spread across the Florida Keys later this morning and reach the
coast of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle on Monday.  Please
consult products from your local weather office for more details.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible this afternoon through
tonight across portions of west-central and south Florida.

A True American Hero

August 16th, 1960, Colonel Joseph William Kittinger II stepped away from his open gondola named “Excelsior” tethered to a massive helium balloon from an unbelievable altitude of 102,800 feet (31,300 m) above the surface of our Earth.

The atmospheric pressure so low, that during the accent, Joe’s pressurization in his right glove malfunctioned, and his right hand swelled to twice its normal size.

Taking that one giant step, Joe free fell for 4 minutes and 36 seconds, slamming into the thicker atmosphere below at speeds up to 614 miles per hour (988 km/h) before opening his parachute at 18,000 feet (5,500 m).

Joe’s pressurization for his right glove malfunctioned during the ascent and his right hand swelled to twice its normal size.

Joseph William Kittinger II was decorated with a second Distinguished Flying Cross, and awarded the Harmon Trophy by President Dwight D. Eisenhower

Kittinger later served three combat tours of duty during the Vietnam War, flying a total of 483 combat missions.

May 11, 1972, just before the end of his third tour of duty. While flying an F-4D. Kittinger and his wingman were chasing a MiG-21 when Kittinger’s Phantom II was hit by an air-to-air missile from another MiG-21 that damaged the Phantom’s starboard wing and set the aircraft on fire. Kittinger and 1st Lieutenant William J. Reich ejected a few miles from Thai Nguyen and were soon captured and taken to the city of Hanoi.

Kittinger and Reich spent 11 months as prisoners of war (POWs) in the Hỏa Lò Prison, the so-called “Hanoi Hilton”

TS Grace Advisory # 4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Grace Advisory Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072021
500 AM AST Sat Aug 14 2021

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM GRACE...
...EXPECTED TO REACH PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES BY TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 55.6W
ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the U.S. Virgin Islands
and Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Antigua and Barbuda, Anguilla, St. Kitts and Nevis, and Montserrat
* Saba and Sint Eustatius
* Sint Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the Dominican Republic should monitor the progress of
this system. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required
for this area later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Grace was 
located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 55.6 West. Grace is 
moving toward the west near 22 mph (35 km/h). A motion toward the 
west with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected during the 
next few days. On the forecast track, the center of the storm is 
forecast to move over the Leeward Islands tonight, over the Virgin 
Islands and Puerto Rico on Sunday, and then over the Dominican 
Republic on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. 
Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days.  
Weakening is expected early next week as the system interacts with 
the Greater Antilles.  

Grace is a small tropical storm. Tropical-storm-force winds extend 
outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Seven can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and
WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area over the Leeward Islands by tonight or early Sunday, and the
U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico beginning on Sunday. Tropical
storm conditions are possible over the British Virgin beginning on
Sunday.

RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce the following rainfall 
amounts later today into Monday:

Over the northern Leeward Islands and Virgin Islands...3 to 6
inches. This rainfall may produce scattered areas of flash and urban
flooding.

Over Puerto Rico...3 to 6 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to
flash, urban, and small stream flooding as well as potential
mudslides.

Heavy rainfall from this system could impact Florida late next week.

TD Fred Advisory # 19

Tropical Depression Fred Advisory Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062021
500 AM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021

...DISORGANIZED FRED PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS ACROSS CUBA AND THE
FLORIDA KEYS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.3N 81.7W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM WNW OF VARADERO CUBA
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.92 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Florida Keys west of the Seven Mile Bridge to the Dry Tortugas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.

Interests in Cuba and in the Florida peninsula and Florida
Panhandle should monitor the progress of Fred.  Watches could be
required for portions of the Florida panhandle and Alabama later 
today.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred was 
located near latitude 23.3 North, longitude 81.7 West. The 
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) 
and this motion is expected to continue today.  A turn to the 
northwest is expected by tonight, followed by a northward motion by 
Sunday night. On the forecast track, Fred is expected to pass west 
of the lower Florida Keys this afternoon, move across the eastern 
Gulf of Mexico tonight through Monday, and move inland over the 
northern Gulf coast Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher 
gusts.  Slow strengthening is forecast, and Fred could become a
tropical storm again tonight or on Sunday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1013 mb (29.92 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL:  Tropical Depression Fred is expected to produce the
following rainfall amounts:

Portions of Cuba...2 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8
inches. This rainfall may lead to scattered flash flooding.

Across the Bahamas...1 to 3 inches, with isolated maximum totals of
5 inches.

Through Monday, 3 to 5 inches of rain with local amounts of 8 inches
is anticipated across the Keys and southern Florida.  Across the
Florida Big Bend and Panhandle, 3 to 7 inches with isolated maximum
totals of 10 inches are expected.  Heavy rainfall could lead to
areal, urban, and small stream flooding impacts, and cause new minor
flooding across the western Florida Peninsula and exacerbate ongoing
minor to isolated moderate flooding in northern Florida.

From Monday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into
inland portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central
Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the
area.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
warning area across the Florida Keys later today.

SURF:  Swells generated by Fred are expected to spread across the
Florida Keys later this morning and reach the coast of Alabama
and the Florida Panhandle on Monday.  Please consult products from
your local weather office for more details.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may be possible starting this
afternoon across portions of central and southern Florida.


TD 7 Advisory # 3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Seven Advisory Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072021
1100 PM AST Fri Aug 13 2021

...SMALL TROPICAL DEPRESSION CONTINUES MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 53.8W
ABOUT 540 MI...870 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Antigua and Barbuda, Anguilla, St. Kitts and Nevis, and Montserrat
* Saba and Sint Eustatius
* Sint Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* British Virgin Islands
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands, as well as the
Dominican Republic, should monitor the progress of this system.
Additional watches and warnings will likely be required for these
areas tonight or on Saturday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Seven
was located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 53.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h). A 
motion towards the west or west-northwest with a gradual decrease 
in forward speed is expected during the next few days. On the
forecast track, the center of the depression is forecast to move
over the Leeward Islands Saturday night, over the Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico on Sunday, and then over the Dominican Republic on
Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. 
Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and 
the depression is expected to become a tropical storm tomorrow.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Seven can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and
WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area over the Leeward Islands by Saturday night or early Sunday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible over the Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico beginning on Sunday.

RAINFALL:  The system is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts Saturday into Monday:

Over the northern Leeward Islands and Virgin Islands...3 to 6
inches. This rainfall may produce scattered areas of flash and urban
flooding.

Over Puerto Rico...3 to 6 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to
flash, urban, and small stream flooding as well as potential
mudslides.

 

 

TD Fred Advisory # 18

 

Tropical Depression Fred Advisory Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062021
1100 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021

...HEAVY RAINFALL FROM FRED CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL 
CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 80.6W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SE OF VARADERO CUBA
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM SSE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.92 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning for the Middle and Upper Florida Keys
from the Seven Mile Bridge to Ocean Reef has been discontinued,
including Florida Bay.

The Tropical Storm Watch along the west coast of Florida has been
discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Florida Keys west of the Seven Mile Bridge to the Dry Tortugas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 to 36 hours.

Interests in Cuba and in the Florida peninsula and Florida
Panhandle should monitor the progress of Fred.  Watches could be
required for portions of the Florida panhandle on Saturday.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred
was located near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 80.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h).   A
west-northwestward motion is expected to begin overnight.  A turn
toward the northwest is expected on Saturday, and this general
motion should continue through early Monday.  On the forecast track,
Fred is expected to continue moving near the north coast of central
Cuba tonight, pass near or west of the lower Florida Keys on
Saturday, and move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico Saturday 
night and Sunday. 

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected through early Saturday. After 
that, slow strengthening is forecast, and Fred could become a 
tropical storm again by late Saturday or Saturday night.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1013 mb (29.92 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL:  Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:

Portions of Cuba...2 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8
inches. This rainfall may lead to scattered flash flooding.

Across the Bahamas...1 to 3 inches, with isolated maximum totals of
5 inches.

Tonight through Monday, 3 to 6 inches of rain is anticipated across
the Keys, southern and central Florida north towards the Big Bend,
with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead
to areal, urban, and small stream flooding impacts, and cause new
minor flooding across the western Florida Peninsula and exacerbate
ongoing minor to isolated moderate flooding in northern Florida.

From Sunday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into
inland portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central
Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the
area.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
warning area across the Florida Keys on Saturday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Fred are expected to spread across
portions of the Bahamas and the northern coast of Cuba through
tonight. These swells could reach the Florida Keys and southern
Florida by early Saturday and increase along the west coast of
Florida Saturday night and Sunday.  Please consult products from
your local weather office for more details.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may be possible starting Saturday 
afternoon across portions of central and southern Florida.