BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nine Advisory Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092021
500 PM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM SOON...
...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE
SYSTEM...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 79.8W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM WSW OF NEGRIL JAMAICA
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cayman Islands
* Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, Havana, Artemisa, Pinar
del Rio, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in central and western Cuba, in the northern
Yucatan Peninsula, and along the northern U.S. Gulf coast should
monitor the progress of this system.  Watches may be required for a
portion of the northern Gulf coast later tonight or Friday morning.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine was
located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 79.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h),
and this general motion should continue over the next few days.  On
the forecast track, the center of the depression will pass near or
over the Cayman Islands tonight, the Isle of Youth and western Cuba
Friday, and over the southeastern and central Gulf of Mexico Friday
night and Saturday.  The system is forecast to approach the U.S.
northern Gulf coast on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Steady strengthening is forecast during the next few days.  The
depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight, and
become a hurricane when it is near western Cuba or over the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico.  Additional strengthening is likely
over the Gulf of Mexico, and the system could be near major
hurricane strength when it approaches the northern Gulf coast.

The estimated minimum central pressure from Air Force Reserve 
reconnaissance data is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Nine can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO
header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore
winds along the immediate coast of the Isle of Youth and near and to
the east of where the center crosses the coast of western Cuba.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman
Islands tonight, and are expected to reach the Isle of Youth and
portions of western Cuba in the warning area on Friday.

RAINFALL:  The depression is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 10 inches with maximum totals of 15 inches
across Jamaica.  Rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches with isolated
maximum amounts of 20 inches are expected across the Cayman Islands
and western Cuba, including the Isle of Youth. These rainfall
amounts may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

The depression may begin to bring rainfall and potential flooding
impacts to the central Gulf Coast by early Sunday.

SURF:  Swells generated by this system will begin affect Jamaica,
the Cayman Islands and Cuba tonight and Friday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nine Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092021
200 PM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTHWESTERN 
CARIBBEAN SEA...
...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT EN ROUTE...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 79.5W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SW OF NEGRIL JAMAICA
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cayman Islands
* Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, Havana, Artemisa, Pinar
del Rio, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in central and western Cuba, in the northern
Yucatan Peninsula, and along the northern U.S. Gulf coast should
monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine was
located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 79.5 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and
this general motion should continue over the next few days.  On the
forecast track, the center of the depression will pass near or over
the Cayman Islands tonight, the Isle of Youth and western Cuba
Friday, and over the southeastern and central Gulf of Mexico Friday 
night and Saturday.  The system is forecast to approach the U.S. 
northern Gulf coast on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast during the next few days.
The depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight, and
become a hurricane when it is near western Cuba or over the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico.  Additional strengthening is likely
over the Gulf of Mexico, and the system could be near major 
hurricane strength when it approaches the northern Gulf coast.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Nine can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO
header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore
winds along the immediate coast of the Isle of Youth and near and to
the east of where the center crosses the coast of western Cuba.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman
Islands tonight, and are expected to reach the Isle of Youth and
portions of western Cuba in the warning area on Friday.

RAINFALL:  The depression is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 10 inches with maximum totals of 15 inches
across Jamaica.  Rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches with isolated
maximum amounts of 20 inches are expected across the Cayman
Islands, western Cuba, including the Isle of Youth, and the 
northeast portions of the Yucatan Peninsula.  These rainfall amounts 
may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

Rainfall from this system is likely to begin impacting portions
of the central U.S. Gulf Coast by early Sunday.

SURF:  Swells generated by this system will begin affecting Jamaica,
the Cayman Islands and Cuba tonight and Friday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092021
1500 UTC THU AUG 26 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...INCLUDING GRAND CAYMAN...LITTLE
CAYMAN...AND CAYMAN BRAC.

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...MAYABEQUE...HAVANA...ARTEMISA...PINAR
DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAYMAN ISLANDS
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...MAYABEQUE...HAVANA...ARTEMISA... 
PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...IN THE NORTHERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND ALONG THE NORTHERN U.S. GULF COAST SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N  79.2W AT 26/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N  79.2W AT 26/1500Z
AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N  79.0W

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 18.2N  80.4W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE   0SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 20.3N  82.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  50SE  20SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 22.5N  83.9W...OVER WESTERN CUBA
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 24.4N  86.0W...OVER SOUTHEASTERN GULF
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE  80SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 26.1N  88.1W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE  60SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 27.7N  90.0W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE  70SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 30.5N  92.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 33.7N  91.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N  79.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 26/1800Z

Tropical Weather Outlook...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021

Corrected 5-day formation probability for the second system

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in 
association with a broad area of low pressure located over the 
west-central Caribbean Sea about 150 miles south-southwest of 
Jamaica.  Environmental conditions remain conducive for additional
development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is 
expected to form later today or tonight while the system moves 
northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea, reaching the 
Cayman Islands tonight and western Cuba and the Yucatan Channel 
Friday and Friday night.  Given the recent developmental trends, 
Tropical Storm Warnings for the Cayman Islands and western Cuba 
could be required later this morning, and an Air Force Reserve 
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system 
this afternoon.  Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall 
and flooding are possible over portions of Jamaica and the Cayman 
Islands today and tonight, and will likely spread across Cuba 
and the Yucatan Peninsula on Friday. 

The system is expected to enter into the Gulf of Mexico Friday night 
and continue moving northwestward toward the central or northwestern 
U.S. Gulf coast, potentially bringing dangerous impacts from storm 
surge, wind, and heavy rainfall to portions of the coasts of Texas, 
Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle by Sunday 
and Monday.  However, uncertainty in the system's exact track and 
intensity remains large since the low is just beginning to form.  
Interests in these areas should closely monitor the progress of this 
system and ensure they have their hurricane plans in place.  
Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can 
be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather 
Service.    
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

A trough of low pressure located over the central Atlantic about 
600 miles east of Bermuda continues to produce disorganized showers 
and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions are forecast to be 
generally conducive for development, and a tropical depression 
is likely to form late this week or this weekend while the system 
moves slowly eastward at 5 to 10 mph. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic about 
1000 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing 
disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions 
appear a little more conducive for development during the next few 
days, and a tropical depression could form by the weekend while the 
system moves toward the west-northwest or northwest at 10 to 15 
mph.  Upper-level winds could become less conducive for development 
by early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Aug 25 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the 
southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next day or so from a tropical 
wave currently located over northwestern Colombia and the 
south-central Caribbean Sea.  Environmental conditions are forecast 
to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely 
to form late this week or over the weekend while the system moves 
west-northwestward to northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean 
Sea. The disturbance is expected to move near or across the Yucatan 
Peninsula of Mexico on Saturday, and move into the western Gulf of 
Mexico by Sunday where conditions could be favorable for additional 
development to occur. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

2. A broad trough of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms over the central tropical Atlantic about 800 miles 
southeast of Bermuda. Only slow development of this system is 
expected during the next day or so due to unfavorable upper-level 
winds. Afterwards, environmental conditions are forecast to become 
more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely 
to form late this week or this weekend while the system turns 
eastward over the central Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

3. A tropical wave over the far eastern tropical Atlantic located 
several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is 
producing a disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms. Some 
development of this system is possible over the next several days 
while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the eastern 
tropical Atlantic. Upper-level winds are forecast to become less 
conducive for development by this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Aug 24 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The Weather Prediction Center is issuing Public Advisories on 
Post-Tropical Cyclone Henri, located inland near southern New 
England.

1. A broad trough of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms over the east-central tropical Atlantic more than 1000 
miles west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Little development 
is expected during the next day or two due to marginally conducive 
ocean temperatures and strong upper-level winds. Afterwards, 
environmental conditions are expected to become more favorable for 
gradual development, and a tropical depression could form by the end 
of the week while the system moves northwestward to northward at 10 
to 15 mph over the central Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

2. A tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean Sea is expected to form a 
broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Caribbean Sea later 
this week.  Thereafter, environmental conditions are forecast to be 
favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression could 
form by the end of the week while the system moves 
west-northwestward to northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean 
Sea. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

3. Another tropical wave over the far eastern tropical Atlantic located 
about 500 miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is 
producing a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms. This 
activity has become a bit better organized tonight, and some 
additional development is possible over the next several days while 
this system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph 
over the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Public advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center on 
Post-Tropical Cyclone Henri can be found under AWIPS header 
TCPAT3, WMO header WTNT33 KWNH, and on the web at 
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Aug 23 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The Weather Prediction Center is issuing Public Advisories on 
Tropical Depression Henri, located inland over southern New 
England.

1. A broad low pressure system is producing disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms over the eastern tropical Atlantic more than 700 miles 
west of the Cabo Verde Islands.  Little development is expected  
during the next couple of days due to only marginally conducive 
ocean temperatures.  Thereafter, however, some gradual development 
will be possible through the end of the week while the system moves 
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

2. A tropical wave located over the eastern Caribbean Sea is expected 
to form a broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Caribbean 
Sea by late week.  Thereafter, environmental conditions are forecast 
to become favorable for gradual development while the system moves 
west-northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

3. Another area of disturbed weather has developed in association with 
a low pressure system located over the far eastern tropical Atlantic 
more than 500 miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands. Some 
slow development will be possible over the next several days while 
the disturbance moves westward to west-northwestward at around to 
15 mph over the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Public advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center on 
Tropical Depression Henri can be found under AWIPS header TCPAT3,
WMO header WTNT33 KWNH, and on the web at 
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov