Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Sep 11 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Larry, located over the Labrador Sea. 

1. A tropical wave and an upper-level trough are producing a large area 
of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over portions of Central 
America, southeastern Mexico, and the adjacent waters of the 
northwestern Caribbean Sea and southern Gulf of Mexico.  Although 
upper-level winds are not conducive for development currently, they 
are expected to become more favorable for the system during the next 
day or so. A tropical depression is likely to form on Sunday or 
Monday while the disturbance moves northwestward and then northward 
near the coast of northeastern Mexico.  Further development will be 
possible through the middle of next week if it remains over water, 
and interests along the western and northwestern Gulf coast should 
monitor the progress of this system. 

Regardless of development, this disturbance is expected to produce 
heavy rain across portions of Central America and the Yucatan 
Peninsula through today which may lead to flash flooding and 
mudslides. By late this weekend, heavy rain will likely reach 
portions of the western Gulf coast, including coastal Texas and 
Louisiana through the middle of next week. Localized significant 
rainfall amounts will be possible, potentially resulting in areas of 
flash and urban flooding.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

2. A tropical wave continues to produce a concentrated area of showers 
and thunderstorms just southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands. 
Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for gradual 
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this 
weekend or early next week while the system moves westward over the 
far eastern Atlantic.  Regardless of development, this system is 
likely to bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain across the Cabo 
Verde Islands later today and tonight.  
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

3. Another tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of 
Africa in a few days.  Some development of this system will be 
possible through the middle of next week while it moves westward 
across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Sep 10 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Larry, located over the western Atlantic several hundred miles 
southwest of Newfoundland, Canada. 

1. The northern portion of a tropical wave is producing disorganized 
showers and thunderstorms over Honduras, the western Caribbean Sea, 
and portions of the Yucatan peninsula.  This system is forecast to 
move into the Bay of Campeche and merge with a pre-existing surface 
trough located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by this weekend. 
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive to support 
gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form 
Sunday or Monday before the system moves onshore along the western 
Gulf of Mexico coast.  Regardless of development, this disturbance 
is expected to produce heavy rains across portions of Central 
America through Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

2. A strong tropical wave is expected to emerge off of the west coast 
of Africa by tonight.  Environmental conditions are forecast to be 
conducive for gradual development thereafter, and a tropical 
depression is likely to form late this weekend or early next week as 
the system moves west-northwestward over the far eastern Atlantic 
near the Cabo Verde Islands.  Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands 
should monitor the progress of this system. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Sep 9 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Larry, located over the western Atlantic a few hundred miles 
northeast of Bermuda, and on Tropical Depression Mindy, located 
offshore the southeast coast of the United States. 

1. The northern portion of a tropical wave is producing disorganized 
showers and thunderstorms over northeastern Honduras and the western 
Caribbean Sea.  This system is forecast to move into the Bay of 
Campeche and merge with a pre-existing surface trough located over 
the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by this weekend.  Environmental 
conditions are expected to be conducive to support some gradual 
development, and a tropical depression could form by early next week 
before the system moves inland over mainland Mexico. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

2. A strong tropical wave is expected to emerge off of the west coast 
of Africa in the next day or so.  Environmental conditions are 
forecast to be conducive for development thereafter, and a tropical 
depression is likely to form by early next week as the system moves 
west-northwestward over the far eastern Atlantic near the Cabo Verde 
Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

BULLETIN
Hurricane Larry Intermediate Advisory Number 35A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122021
800 AM AST Thu Sep 09 2021

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON BERMUDA LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.2N 61.5W
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.58 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southeastern Newfoundland from St. Schotts to Pouch Cove

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Southeastern Newfoundland from Lamaline to west of St. Schotts
* Southeastern Newfoundland from north of Pouch Cove to Bonavista

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located
near latitude 31.2 North, longitude 61.5 West.  Larry is moving
toward the north-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and a turn toward
the north with an increase in forward speed is forecast today, with 
a faster northeastward motion expected by Friday.  On the forecast 
track, the center of Larry should pass east of Bermuda today, and 
move near or over southeastern Newfoundland Friday night or early 
Saturday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of
days, but Larry is expected to remain a hurricane during that time.
Larry should become an extratropical cyclone early Saturday, after
passing by Newfoundland, then weaken further while it passes
southeast of Greenland Sunday night.  Larry is expected to be
absorbed by a larger extratropical low east of Greenland Monday.

Larry is a large hurricane.  Hurricane-force winds extend outward 
up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force 
winds extending outward up to 220 miles (350 km) from the center.

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve Unit 
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 968 mb (28.58 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda later 
today.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area in
southeastern Newfoundland Friday night, with tropical storm
conditions possible by late Friday.  Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the tropical storm watch area in southeastern 
Newfoundland by late Friday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Leeward
Islands, portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda
through the end of the week. Significant swells from Larry will
continue affecting the east coast of the United States and Atlantic
Canada through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL:  Outer rain bands from Hurricane Larry may periodically
impact Bermuda Thursday. Significant rainfall totals are currently
not expected, however briefly heavy rain rates within these bands
may result in an inch or two of rain through Thursday.  Heavy rains
from Larry will move quickly across eastern Newfoundland Friday 
night, producing 1 to 2 inches of rain.

Tropical Storm Mindy Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132021
500 PM CDT Wed Sep 08 2021

...NOAA BUOY DATA INDICATES THAT MINDY IS A LITTLE STRONGER...

Recent data from NOAA buoy 42036 indicates that the maximum 
sustained winds in Mindy are now near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher 
gusts.


SUMMARY OF 500 PM CDT...2200 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.2N 86.1W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM WSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Mindy Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132021
400 PM CDT Wed Sep 08 2021

...NEW TROPICAL STORM FORMS IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.0N 86.3W
ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM WSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the coast of the
Florida Panhandle from Mexico Beach to Steinhatchee River.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mexico Beach to Steinhatchee River Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case in the
next 6 to 12 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Mindy was
located near latitude 29.0 North, longitude 86.3 West. Mindy is
moving toward the northeast near 21 mph (33 km/h) and northeast to 
east-northeastward motion is expected to continue over the next 
several days. On the forecast track, the center of Mindy is 
expected to cross the coastline of the Florida Panhandle later 
tonight, and then move offshore of the southeastern United States 
into the western Atlantic Ocean by tomorrow.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. 
Little change in strength is expected before Mindy makes landfall in 
the Florida Panhandle tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Mindy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone 
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, 
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages

RAINFALL:  Mindy is expected to produce storm total rainfall of
2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts of 6 inches across the Florida
Panhandle into southern portions of Georgia and South Carolina
through Thursday morning. This rainfall may produce isolated to
scattered flash, urban, and small stream flooding.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the coast
within the warning area later this evening and tonight.

TORNADOES:  A few isolated tornadoes are possible over portions of
the Florida Panhandle this evening into tomorrow morning.

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
320 PM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special outlook issued to update discussion of the disturbance in 
the Gulf of Mexico. 

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Larry, located over the central Atlantic several hundred miles 
east-southeast of Bermuda.

Updated:  Satellite and radar data indicate that shower and 
thunderstorm activity continues to gradually become better organized in association with an area of low pressure located about 115 miles southwest of Apalachicola, Florida. In addition, satellite-derived wind data indicate that the circulation has become somewhat better defined today. If these development trends continue, advisories will likely be initiated on this system as a tropical depression or tropical storm later this afternoon, and tropical storm warnings could be required for portions of the coast of the Florida Panhandle. After reaching the Florida Panhandle tonight, this system is expected to move across the southeastern United States and emerge over the western Atlantic by late Thursday, where environmental conditions appear unfavorable for additional development.  
Regardless of development, areas of heavy rainfall are likely across portions of the Florida panhandle and southern Georgia through 
Thursday, with localized flooding possible. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

A tropical wave is expected to emerge off of the western coast of 
Africa in a few days.  Some development of this system is possible 
thereafter as it moves west-northwestward over the far eastern 
Atlantic. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.