Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Tue Oct 5 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on Post-Tropical Cyclone Sam, located over the far North Atlantic. 1. A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms is located east of a surface trough that extends from the central and southeastern Bahamas northward over the adjacent southwestern Atlantic waters. Upper-level winds are not expected to be favorable for significant tropical development of this system while it moves slowly northwestward over the next several days. By this weekend, the system is forecast to interact with a front near the coast of the southeastern United States. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
Observations – UF vs Ky Game
From a great Gator site, Gatorcountry
1. Why in the world did the Gators not go with a silent count on offense?When you commit eight false start penalties in a game, it’s pretty obvious that you’re experiencing major communication issues.
You would’ve thought that after the third or fourth penalty that Dan Mullen or John Hevesy would’ve said, “Our guys cannot hear Emory Jones’ cadence; let’s switch to a nonverbal form of communication.”
Instead, they had Jones yell out the calls and clap his hands throughout the duration of the game. It was the definition of insanity – doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.
Mullen spoke all week about how hostile the environment was going to be in Lexington, so I’m not sure what happened. Did they underestimate the volume of the crowd? Do they not even work on silent counts in practice?
Regardless, it’s clear that this offense was ill-prepared to play this game, which was shocking for a Mullen-led unit.
2. Special teams have been an abject disaster this season.
Major errors on special teams have contributed to both of the Gators’ losses this season.
They missed an extra point and muffed a kickoff out of bounds at the 1 against Alabama. Against Kentucky, they had a field goal blocked and returned for a touchdown. They also had a delay-of-game penalty on a field goal attempt that they were fortunate to make anyway.
There have also been some punts that they’ve allowed to roll for an additional 15 or so yards instead of catching them, and they’ve made some poor decisions on whether to bring kickoffs out of the end zone or not.
Special teams were a strength of this team over the past couple of years, and the coaches seem to emphasize special teams a ton. Still, this is a major area of weakness this season.
3. I have no idea what Mullen was trying to accomplish with that game plan.
He displayed zero creativity in this game. Of Jones’ 31 pass attempts, it felt like 25 of them were thrown within five yards of the line of scrimmage. His longest completion was just 22 yards. I can’t even remember one deep shot that they took.
Instead of trying to get points at the end of the first half, Mullen opted to run the clock out despite having nearly two minutes left and all of his timeouts.
Even when they tried to mount a comeback in the fourth quarter, they went on long drives instead of trying to pick up yards in large chunks.
Mullen either doesn’t trust Jones as much as he claims to publicly, or he thought that the only way Kentucky could beat them was if they made major mistakes on offense and decided to go ultra-conservative.
This offense is supposed to be a spread offense that makes the defense defend the entire field, from sideline to sideline and from the line of scrimmage to the end zone. So, when you decide to play the game in a 10-yard box for most of the night, it shouldn’t be a surprise that these are the results that you get.
4. The defense played its most complete game in a while.
This is the only positive to take away from the game. They limited the Wildcats to 224 total yards, including just 87 passing yards. They allowed UK to convert just one of nine third downs and stopped them on their lone fourth down attempt. They intercepted a pass.
Really, their only blemish was the 41-yard touchdown catch and run by Wan’Dale Robinson where they missed two or three tackles. They gave up less than 200 yards and just seven points on the other 46 plays, and those seven points were a product of Jones throwing an interception and giving UK a short field.
You can’t blame Todd Grantham for this loss.
5. They’ve got to stop losing to an inferior opponent every year.
You can pretty much count on Mullen beating a team he shouldn’t and losing to a team he shouldn’t every year.
In 2018, the Gators beat LSU and Michigan but lost to Kentucky and Missouri. In 2020, they beat Georgia but lost to one of the worst LSU teams in years at home.
This cycle has to stop for this program to go anywhere. You’ve got to take care of business against the teams that you’re better than before you can start worrying about chasing down Alabama and Georgia.
Otherwise, they’re going to continue to lose two or three games every year but leave their fans with just enough reasons to be optimistic about the next season.
Tropical Outlook
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Sam, located more than 600 miles south-southwest of Cape Race, Newfoundland, and on Tropical Depression Victor, located over the central tropical Atlantic. 1. A large area of disorganized cloudiness and showers over the southeastern Bahamas and adjacent southwestern Atlantic waters is associated with a surface trough. Upper-level winds are expected to be only marginally conducive, and any development of this system should be slow to occur while it moves west-northwestward at around 10 mph through Monday, followed by a slow northwestward motion through the end of the week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Sam Advisory # 40
BULLETIN Hurricane Sam Advisory Number 40 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 1100 AM AST Sat Oct 02 2021 ...STEADFAST SAM MAINTAINING CATEGORY 4 WINDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.9N 59.3W ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM ENE OF BERMUDA ABOUT 940 MI...1515 KM SSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sam was located near latitude 33.9 North, longitude 59.3 West. Sam is moving toward the northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h). This general track with an increase in forward speed is expected for the next few days. On the forecast track, Sam will continue to move away from Bermuda. Maximum sustained winds remain near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Sam is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some slow weakening is forecast during the next 36 hours, followed by more significant weakening early next week. Sam could become a powerful post-tropical cyclone on Tuesday. Sam is becoming a large tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 65 miles (100 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 945 mb (27.91 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Sam can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages. SURF: Swells generated by Sam will impact the northern Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the eastern United States and Atlantic Canada for the next couple of days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
SP+ Predictions, UF @ UK
Florida played arguably its most complete half of football in the final 30 minutes against Tennessee, scoring three second-half touchdowns and shutting out the Volunteers in the final two quarters. That performance certainly gives the Gators a lot to build off of heading into what could be their toughest remaining test outside of Georgia.
This is a Kentucky team that has given Florida headaches in recent years, and this looks to be one of the better teams coach Mark Stoops has constructed in Lexington. With UF heading on the road in the SEC for the first time this season (in a night game, no less), things could certainly get a bit dicey for it in this one.
But worry not, Gators fans. The math is on your side.
According to this week’s score predictions from SP+, the analytics system created by ESPN college football writer Bill Connelly, Florida has a 75% chance to beat the Wildcats on Saturday night with a predicted score of 34-23.
We know that the SP+ is very high on UF, which places fourth in the rankings this week. And the system thinks that the Gators will manage to cover the 7.5-point spread currently listed by Tipico Sportsbook.
SP+ predicts that the game will produce 57 total points, meaning that the 55.5 over/under listed by Tipico would hit.
All of Florida’s goals are still in front of it this season, but it has to avoid a slipup in a game like this. SP+ thinks that Florida will win fairly comfortably, though, and get to 4-1 on the season.
Game Overview – UF vs. UK
The Florida Gators football team plays their first SEC road game of the season tomorrow as they travel to Lexington. The undefeated Wildcats will pose a challenge for the Gators as they try to improve to 4-1 and pick up a second SEC win.
A Trip Down Memory Lane
Kentucky has given the Gators some tough games in recent memory, going back to 2014 when Kentucky took Florida to three overtimes in the Swamp. 2018 of course was also the year Kentucky finally defeated Florida to end the then 31-year streak the Gators held. The last two times Florida has traveled to Lexington, it took late-game magic for the Gators to escape with a win.
The 2017 matchup saw the Gators trail 27-14 in the fourth quarter. Quarterback Luke Del Rio came off the bench to rally Florida to victory, with the aid of Kentucky leaving Freddie Swain uncovered in the end zone. Kentucky’s last-second field goal attempt landed short and Florida escaped to win 28-27.
The 2019 game was equally tense. Florida trailed Kentucky 21-10 in the fourth quarter and quarterback Feleipe Franks suffered his season-ending ankle injury. Here began the fairytale rise of Kyle Trask. Florida scored 12 unanswered points with Trask to pull ahead 22-21. Kentucky’s missed 35-yard field goal and Josh Hammond’s 76-yard touchdown run made for a 29-21 Gators victory.
This Year’s Teams
Four games into the 2021 season, both teams are playing about as expected. Starting with Kentucky, the Wildcats are 4-0 with wins over Louisiana-Monroe, Mizzou, Chattanooga, and South Carolina. The road for Kentucky thus far has been a fairly easy one, but they have taken care of business nonetheless.
However, Florida is the first real test for Kentucky this year. On top of that, this Saturday begins a three-week stretch where Kentucky plays Florida, LSU and at Georgia. This stretch of games is where we’ll find out how good Kentucky really is.
As for Florida, the Gators go to Lexington with a 3-1 record with wins over Florida Atlantic, South Florida and Tennessee and a two-point loss to top-ranked Alabama. With the Alabama game in the rearview mirror, the Gators entire season now hinges upon the result of the annual Florida-Georgia game. It is important for the Gators to not overlook the games between now and then, or else they might find themselves on the wrong end of a trap game.
The Offenses
Both teams bring explosive weapons to the table on offense. For Florida this season, it has been all about the running game. The Gators currently average 7.46 yards per rush, the best in the nation. Florida features a good stable of running backs, with most of the load being carried by Malik Davis, Dameon Pierce and Nay’Quan Wright. Quarterback Emory Jones has contributed a huge portion as well. Jones has 375 rushing yards on the season, the most on the team. 144 of those came last week against Tennessee.
Florida’s other X-factor is the expected return of quarterback Anthony Richardson. Head coach Dan Mullen said earlier this week that Richardson is 100% and cleared to play. It is expected, and highly anticipated, that Richardson will return to action this week. In his two appearances, he has shown he can be one of the most explosive playmakers in the entire country.
Kentucky’s offense has big playmakers of its own. Junior running back Chris Rodriguez has rushed for 522 yards in Kentucky’s first four games. That puts him atop the SEC and tied for third nationally in total rush yards. Kentucky also features the SEC’s leading receiver in Wan’Dale Robinson. With 402 receiving yards and a pair of touchdowns, Robinson posts the big-play threat alongside Rodriguez.
The Wildcats’ offense is led by Penn State transfer Will Levis. This season Levis has passed for 902 yards and seven touchdowns, completing 65.3% of his throws. Levis has also thrown five interceptions so far. Kentucky’s turnover margin sits at -9, the second worst in the nation.
The Defenses
Florida’s defense has at times been lights out, yet at other times painful to watch. No game saw this better demonstrated than against Alabama. The Gator defense allowed touchdowns on the first three possessions and looked lost and confused. After settling in however, they held Alabama to just 10 points over the remaining three quarters.
The Gators’ pass rush is led by redshirt-senior Zachary Carter and his 4.5 sacks on the year. As a team the Gators have 16 sacks on the season, second in the SEC behind LSU and tied for fifth nationally. Alongside the pass rush, the Gators have the fifth best run defense in the SEC having allowed 106.5 per game. Florida’s weak spot has come in the secondary. With 241 pass yards allowed per game, this is the Kentucky offense’s greatest chance to hurt Florida, especially with cornerback Kaiir Elam questionable to play.
Opposite to them, the Kentucky defense has been strong in their opening games. The Wildcats defense has only allowed 17.8 points per game and only 260 yards per game, ranking them ninth in the country in total defense. Leading the team in sacks is sophomore linebacker J.J. Weaver. With his help up front, Kentucky has only allowed 87 rush yards per game, third best in the SEC.
TS Victor Advisory # 10
BULLETIN Tropical Storm Victor Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021 500 PM AST Fri Oct 01 2021 ...VICTOR LOSING ORGANIZATION OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.0N 34.3W ABOUT 745 MI...1195 KM WSW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Victor was located near latitude 12.0 North, longitude 34.3 West. Victor is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). The forward speed of the tropical storm has slowed and a turn to the northwest is anticipated by tomorrow. Victor is then expected to move northwestward over the weekend and into early next week with slight fluctuations in forward speed. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Victor is expected to gradually weaken over the next 72 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None.
Sam Advisory # 37
BULLETIN
Hurricane Sam Advisory Number 37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021
500 PM AST Fri Oct 01 2021
...CORE OF SAM FORECAST TO PASS WELL EAST OF BERMUDA TONIGHT...
...SWELLS EXPECTED TO REACH THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S. AND ATLANTIC CANADA ON SATURDAY...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.0N 61.8W
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Sam was located
near latitude 30.0 North, longitude 61.8 West. Sam is moving toward
the north near 20 mph (31 km/h). A turn toward the north-northeast,
at a slightly slower forward speed, is expected by tonight, followed
by a northeastward motion Saturday night through Monday. On the
forecast track, the center of Sam will pass well to the east of
Bermuda tonight.
Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher
gusts. Sam is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Although fluctuations in intensity are still
possible, weakening is forecast during the next couple of days.
However, Sam is expected to remain a major hurricane through at
least Saturday night.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles
(335 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 937 mb (27.67 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Sam can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning
tonight or early Saturday.
SURF: Swells generated by Sam will impact the northern Leeward
Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda during the
next couple of days. Swells are expected to reach the United States
east coast and Atlantic Canada on Saturday. These swells could
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
TS Victor Advisory # 9
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Victor Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021
1100 AM AST Fri Oct 01 2021
...VICTOR STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE...
...CENTERED SOUTH OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.5N 33.5W
ABOUT 710 MI...1140 KM WSW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Victor was
located near latitude 11.5 North, longitude 33.5 West. Victor is
moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). The
tropical storm is forecast to continue moving west-northwestward at
a slightly slower forward speed today. A turn toward the northwest
is anticipated over the weekend, and that motion will likely
continue into early next week.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today. Over
the weekend, Victor is forecast to slowly weaken.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
Sam Advisory # 36
BULLETIN
Hurricane Sam Advisory Number 36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021
1100 AM AST Fri Oct 01 2021
...SAM REMAINS A POWERFUL CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...
...CORE OF THE HURRICANE EXPECTED TO PASS WELL EAST OF BERMUDA
TONIGHT...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.4N 61.8W
ABOUT 325 MI...520 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...936 MB...27.64 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sam was located
near latitude 28.4 North, longitude 61.8 West. Sam is moving toward the north near 21 mph (33 km/h). A turn toward the north-northeast, at a slightly slower forward speed, is expected by tonight, followed by a northeastward motion Saturday night through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Sam will pass well to the east of Bermuda tonight.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher
gusts. Sam is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Although fluctuations in intensity are still possible today, weakening is forecast during the next couple of days. However, Sam is expected to remain a major hurricane through at least Saturday night.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 936 mb (27.64 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Sam can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussionunder AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning
tonight or early Saturday.
SURF: Swells generated by Sam will impact the northern Leeward
Islands and the Greater Antilles, including Puerto Rico, during the
next couple of days. Swells are expected to reach Bermuda and the
Bahamas this afternoon, and then spread to the United States east
coast and Atlantic Canada on Saturday. These swells could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.