Tropical Outlook 10/10
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Oct 10 2021
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized in association with a large, non-tropical low pressure area located about 80 miles south of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft that investigated the low earlier today found that the system was still producing a small area of gale-force winds just offshore the North Carolina outer banks. However, dry air and strong upper-level winds are expected to decrease the chance for further development of this system. The low is forecast to move slowly northeastward today, with the center remaining just offshore the eastern North Carolina coast this afternoon and tonight. Interests in that area should continue to monitor the progress of this system and refer to local National Weather Service office products for more information. Regardless of development, intermittent periods of locally heavy rains and gusty winds will affect southeastern and eastern portions of North Carolina during the next day or so. Additional information on this low pressure system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
2. Recent satellite-derived surface wind data indicate that a vigorous tropical wave located about 500 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands is producing a concentrated area of cloudiness and thunderstorms near the wave axis. Environmental conditions are forecast to be marginally conducive for some additional development of this system while it moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph over the next few days. The disturbance is expected to approach the central and northern Lesser Antilles by late Monday and early Tuesday, and interests in these areas should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, the system will produce
locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds across portions of the
central and northern Lesser Antilles on Tuesday, and across the
Virgin Islands and northern Lesser Antilles on Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
Chris Harry’s Quick Slant
THE QUICK SLANT
No. 20 FLORIDA 42, VANDERBILT 0
WHAT HAPPENED: Quarterback Emory Jones threw a career-high four touchdown passes, tailback Dameon Pierce found the end zone three times, and the 20th-ranked Gators made homecoming bait out of the Commodores in Saturday’s game at Spurrier/Florida Field. Jones, the fourth-year junior, completed 14 of 22 passes for 273 yards, including touchdown tosses of five and nine yards in the first, then 61 and 25 to start the second half and kick in the blowout. Pierce, the senior, had a pair of 1-yard scoring runs, but in between was on the receiving end of that 61-yard bomb from Jones. The Gators, looking to bounce back from last week’s crushing defeat at Kentucky, scored on the first two drives of the game, but had their momentum stalled for a spell when backup quarterback Anthony Richardson had a turnover and a three-and-out on his scheduled possessions. UF got back on the board with just under four minutes to go in the first half, with Jones rolling left and finding Trent Whittemore for a score and 21-0 lead. The Gators needed barely six minutes of the second half to double that margin on three quick-strike TD drives. A tipped-ball interception by Jones midway through the third quarter set up Vandy at the UF 30 and looked to doom the Gators’ quest for a shutout, but Vandy kicker Joseph Bulovas, who missed two field goals in the first half, was wide left for a third time and UF finished the goose egg, the program’s first since beating Vanderbilt 56-0 in 2019. Florida finished with 479 yards of total offense, including 181 rushing (the second week in a row with less than 200). Vanderbilt managed just 287 yards, with minus-11 rushing yards in the second half. The Commodores came in ready to throw the football, with quarterback Ken Seals attempting 43 passes before giving way to his backup. Seals completed 22 for 192 yards and two interceptions.
WHAT IT MEANS: Make that eight straight wins over the Commodores, as well as 30 of the last 31 in the series, dating to 1989. The victory kept the Gators in their middling spot in the SEC East Division standings, where they’ve not only lost control of their destiny but must rely on not one but two teams (Georgia and Kentucky) to collapse.
IN THE SPOTLIGHT: Clearly, UF coach Dan Mullen wanted Jones to get in a rhythm and stay in it, opting to keep his starter in the game (as opposed to letting Richardson finish up) after going up 42-0. Jones had a career-best afternoon. As for Richardson, he got the last two offensive series, behind the backup offensive line, and finished 4 of 6 passing for 25 yards, plus five rushing attempts for 11 yards. And let’s give a shoutout to Pierce, who came into the season with 12 career touchdowns and now has eight on the season.
STAGGERING STATISTIC: Vanderbilt ran 80 plays for the game, compared to Florida’s 62. At halftime, that discrepancy was 49-31, and the Commodores had just 15 fewer yards of total offense (215 to 200) than the Gators. Go figure.
UP NEXT: The Gators (4-2, 2-2) will leave the state for only the second time this season, with a road date at LSU (3-2, 1-1) next Saturday at noon. That, of course, means an 11 a.m. kick Baton Rouge time, so pace yourself, UF fans, who no doubt will be heading to New Orleans. The Tigers, who handed UF that devastating defeat at the “Swamp” in the 2020 regular-season finale, are coming off a home loss to Auburn and play later Saturday night at 16th-ranked Kentucky, which handed the Gators an equally devastating loss a week ago.
Tropical Update 10/9
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Oct 9 2021
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. A well-defined, non-tropical low pressure system located about 200 miles southeast of Morehead City and Wilmington, North Carolina, continues to produce a large area of cloudiness and disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions could briefly become marginally conducive for the low to acquire subtropical characteristics through early Sunday. However, by late Sunday and Monday, environmental conditions should become unfavorable for any further development. The low is forecast to move slowly northwestward during the next day or so, and approach the North Carolina coast tonight and early Sunday. Therefore, interests along the North Carolina coast should monitor the progress of this system.
Regardless of development, intermittent periods of locally heavy
rains and gusty winds will affect southeastern and eastern portions of North Carolina during the next day or two. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the low this afternoon. Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
Swamp Upgrades Coming!
Florida’s Ben Hill Griffin Stadium is one of the iconic college football cathedrals in the land. Affectionately known as “the Swamp,” it’s considered one of the toughest places to play as a visitor in the country, especially when the Gators are competitive.
And now, it appears that the University of Florida is attempting to improve the fan experience on Saturdays. According to a report from the Gainesville Sun’s Graham Hall, the stadium will undergo a number of changes by the beginning of the 2024 season, including chairbacks in the lower bowl, scoreboard and sound improvements, as well as upgrades to comply with the Americans with Disabilities Act.
The pre-design phase is set to begin on Nov. 1 and be completed by Jan. 3, 2022. Construction is expected to begin after the start of the 2022 season, and it’s expected to conclude on Aug. 2, 2024, just in time for the team’s home-opener against the Miami Hurricanes.
This is one of many facilities upgrades currently being undertaken by the football program. A stand-alone football facility at the site of the old McKethan Stadium, which cost $85 million, is expected to open in the spring.
Tropical Outlook 10/8
Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Fri Oct 8 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. An elongated area of low pressure located more than 150 miles off the coast of South Carolina is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms well to the east of the center of circulation. Strong upper-level winds should prevent any significant tropical or subtropical development during the next day or two. By Sunday, however, environmental conditions could briefly become marginally conducive for some subtropical development of the low. By early next week, the low is expected to interact with a frontal boundary, which should end the opportunity for any subtropical or tropical formation. Regardless of development, the low is forecast to meander just offshore the Carolinas for the next few days, occasionally bringing locally heavy rains and gusty winds to eastern portions of the Carolinas through the weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
Thoughts from Vandy Site.
From the Vanderbilt website Anchor of Gold.
It was hard to figure out what to expect from Florida’s defense heading into this season. Last year, the Gators frequently got torched by good offenses, but the defense’s ability to shut down bad offenses made the overall numbers look not terrible.
As for the first part, well, Florida has only played one good offense in five games this season — and actually, against Alabama, the defense was credible, surrendering just 331 yards on 5.3 yards per play, though they did give up 31 points.
Anyway, for a matchup against Vanderbilt, the second part is probably more relevant — and on that front, Florida’s defense has performed well. Against Florida Atlantic, the defense gave up 14 points (all in the fourth quarter), though it did allow five yards per play. Against South Florida: 20 points (17 in the second half, when the game was already well in hand) on 4.2 yards per play. Against Tennessee: 14 points, albeit on 6.2 yards per play (granted, after last week it’s fair to say Tennessee’s offense might be closer to good than bad.) Against Kentucky: 4.9 yards per play and 14 points (the Wildcats scored a touchdown on a blocked field goal in a 20-13 win.)
In other words, this is probably a defense that is going to shut down Vanderbilt’s offense, which is probably the worst offense they’ve faced this season and really only South Florida is even in the ballpark.
Senior defensive end Zachary Carter has been the breakout star of the Gator defense, with eight tackles for loss and five sacks through the season’s first five games, but the defensive line as a whole is a strength as the Gators are allowing 3.4 yards per rush attempt. Alabama couldn’t even run the ball on this defense, netting just 91 yards on 28 carries.
The pass defense is fine, too; Bryce Young picked on this defense (but what defense doesn’t he pick on?) but other than that, nobody has been able to beat the Gators deep. They have a couple of active safeties in the redundantly-named Trey Dean III and Tre’Vez Johnson, though star cornerback Kaiir Elam has missed the last two games with an injury.
In other words… well, this defense is probably shutting down the Vanderbilt offense.
Tropical Update – 10/7
Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Thu Oct 7 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. A weak area of low pressure located about 100 miles off the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms, well to the northeast of the center of circulation. Strong upper-level winds should limit significant tropical or subtropical development during the next few days while the low moves northeastward at about 5 mph off the coasts of the Carolinas. Some non-tropical development will be possible over the weekend due to the system interacting with a frontal boundary. Regardless of development, this system could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to portions of the Carolinas through the weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Coach Mullen on Gator Talk Thursday!
GAINESVILLE, Fla. – Florida Gators football Head Coach Dan Mullen is set to join the 2021 edition of Gator Talk, presented by McCall Service, on Thursday, October 7 to discuss the team’s homecoming game against the Vanderbilt Commodores (2-3, 0-1) on October 9 at 12 p.m.
Mullen will sit down with program host Jeff Cardozo from Spurrier’s Gridiron Grille at Celebration Pointe beginning at 7 p.m. and fans are welcome to attend the live show. Mullen will appear in 10 of 15 shows, with assistant coaches joining Cardozo for the Nov. 11 show. Fans must be 21 years or older to attend Gator Talk in Visors.
Gator Talk, presented by McCall Service, is the weekly hour-long program covering the latest in Gator Football. The show is available across the Gators Sports Network from LEARFIELD, on GatorVision, and by downloading the Varsity Network app, now available on the App Store and Google Play.
Tropical Outlook 10/5
Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Tue Oct 5 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on Post-Tropical Cyclone Sam, located over the far North Atlantic. 1. A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms is located east of a surface trough that extends from the central and southeastern Bahamas northward over the adjacent southwestern Atlantic waters. Upper-level winds are not expected to be favorable for significant tropical development of this system while it moves slowly northwestward over the next several days. By this weekend, the system is forecast to interact with a front near the coast of the southeastern United States. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.