Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Tue Oct 5 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on Post-Tropical Cyclone Sam, located over the far North Atlantic. 1. A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms is located east of a surface trough that extends from the central and southeastern Bahamas northward over the adjacent southwestern Atlantic waters. Upper-level winds are not expected to be favorable for significant tropical development of this system while it moves slowly northwestward over the next several days. By this weekend, the system is forecast to interact with a front near the coast of the southeastern United States. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
Category Archives: Weather
Tropical Outlook
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Sam, located more than 600 miles south-southwest of Cape Race, Newfoundland, and on Tropical Depression Victor, located over the central tropical Atlantic. 1. A large area of disorganized cloudiness and showers over the southeastern Bahamas and adjacent southwestern Atlantic waters is associated with a surface trough. Upper-level winds are expected to be only marginally conducive, and any development of this system should be slow to occur while it moves west-northwestward at around 10 mph through Monday, followed by a slow northwestward motion through the end of the week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Sam Advisory # 40
BULLETIN Hurricane Sam Advisory Number 40 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 1100 AM AST Sat Oct 02 2021 ...STEADFAST SAM MAINTAINING CATEGORY 4 WINDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.9N 59.3W ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM ENE OF BERMUDA ABOUT 940 MI...1515 KM SSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sam was located near latitude 33.9 North, longitude 59.3 West. Sam is moving toward the northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h). This general track with an increase in forward speed is expected for the next few days. On the forecast track, Sam will continue to move away from Bermuda. Maximum sustained winds remain near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Sam is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some slow weakening is forecast during the next 36 hours, followed by more significant weakening early next week. Sam could become a powerful post-tropical cyclone on Tuesday. Sam is becoming a large tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 65 miles (100 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 945 mb (27.91 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Sam can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages. SURF: Swells generated by Sam will impact the northern Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the eastern United States and Atlantic Canada for the next couple of days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
TS Victor Advisory # 10
BULLETIN Tropical Storm Victor Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021 500 PM AST Fri Oct 01 2021 ...VICTOR LOSING ORGANIZATION OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.0N 34.3W ABOUT 745 MI...1195 KM WSW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Victor was located near latitude 12.0 North, longitude 34.3 West. Victor is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). The forward speed of the tropical storm has slowed and a turn to the northwest is anticipated by tomorrow. Victor is then expected to move northwestward over the weekend and into early next week with slight fluctuations in forward speed. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Victor is expected to gradually weaken over the next 72 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None.
Sam Advisory # 37
BULLETIN
Hurricane Sam Advisory Number 37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021
500 PM AST Fri Oct 01 2021
...CORE OF SAM FORECAST TO PASS WELL EAST OF BERMUDA TONIGHT...
...SWELLS EXPECTED TO REACH THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S. AND ATLANTIC CANADA ON SATURDAY...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.0N 61.8W
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Sam was located
near latitude 30.0 North, longitude 61.8 West. Sam is moving toward
the north near 20 mph (31 km/h). A turn toward the north-northeast,
at a slightly slower forward speed, is expected by tonight, followed
by a northeastward motion Saturday night through Monday. On the
forecast track, the center of Sam will pass well to the east of
Bermuda tonight.
Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher
gusts. Sam is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Although fluctuations in intensity are still
possible, weakening is forecast during the next couple of days.
However, Sam is expected to remain a major hurricane through at
least Saturday night.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles
(335 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 937 mb (27.67 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Sam can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning
tonight or early Saturday.
SURF: Swells generated by Sam will impact the northern Leeward
Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda during the
next couple of days. Swells are expected to reach the United States
east coast and Atlantic Canada on Saturday. These swells could
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
TS Victor Advisory # 9
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Victor Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021
1100 AM AST Fri Oct 01 2021
...VICTOR STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE...
...CENTERED SOUTH OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.5N 33.5W
ABOUT 710 MI...1140 KM WSW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Victor was
located near latitude 11.5 North, longitude 33.5 West. Victor is
moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). The
tropical storm is forecast to continue moving west-northwestward at
a slightly slower forward speed today. A turn toward the northwest
is anticipated over the weekend, and that motion will likely
continue into early next week.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today. Over
the weekend, Victor is forecast to slowly weaken.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
Sam Advisory # 36
BULLETIN
Hurricane Sam Advisory Number 36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021
1100 AM AST Fri Oct 01 2021
...SAM REMAINS A POWERFUL CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...
...CORE OF THE HURRICANE EXPECTED TO PASS WELL EAST OF BERMUDA
TONIGHT...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.4N 61.8W
ABOUT 325 MI...520 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...936 MB...27.64 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sam was located
near latitude 28.4 North, longitude 61.8 West. Sam is moving toward the north near 21 mph (33 km/h). A turn toward the north-northeast, at a slightly slower forward speed, is expected by tonight, followed by a northeastward motion Saturday night through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Sam will pass well to the east of Bermuda tonight.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher
gusts. Sam is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Although fluctuations in intensity are still possible today, weakening is forecast during the next couple of days. However, Sam is expected to remain a major hurricane through at least Saturday night.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 936 mb (27.64 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Sam can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussionunder AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning
tonight or early Saturday.
SURF: Swells generated by Sam will impact the northern Leeward
Islands and the Greater Antilles, including Puerto Rico, during the
next couple of days. Swells are expected to reach Bermuda and the
Bahamas this afternoon, and then spread to the United States east
coast and Atlantic Canada on Saturday. These swells could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
TS Victor Advisory # 8
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Victor Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021
500 AM AST Fri Oct 01 2021
...VICTOR MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.7N 32.3W
ABOUT 630 MI...1015 KM WSW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Victor was
located near latitude 11.7 North, longitude 32.3 West. Victor is
moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A motion toward
the west-northwest and northwest is expected today, followed by a
northwestward motion over the eastern tropical Atlantic over the
weekend.
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening will be possible through tonight,
followed by a slow weakening trend over the weekend.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
Sam Advisory # 35A
BULLETIN
Hurricane Sam Intermediate Advisory Number 35A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021
800 AM AST Fri Oct 01 2021
...SAM REMAINS A POWERFUL CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON BERMUDA BY TONIGHT OR
EARLY SATURDAY...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.5N 61.8W
ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...934 MB...27.58 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Sam was located near
latitude 27.5 North, longitude 61.8 West. Sam is moving toward the
north-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A turn toward the north and
north-northeast, at a similar forward speed, is expected later today
and tonight, followed by a northeastward motion Saturday night
through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Sam will pass
well to the east of Bermuda tonight.
Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher
gusts. Sam is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Although fluctuations in intensity are still
possible today, weakening is forecast during the next couple of
days. However, Sam is expected to remain a major hurricane through
at least Saturday night.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 934 mb (27.58 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Sam can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning
tonight or early Saturday.
SURF: Swells generated by Sam will impact the northern Leeward
Islands and the Greater Antilles, including Puerto Rico, during the
next couple of days. Swells are expected to reach Bermuda and the
Bahamas later today, and then spread to the United States east
coast and Atlantic Canada this weekend. These swells could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
Sam Advisory # 34
BULLETIN
Hurricane Sam Advisory Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 30 2021
...SAM STILL A POWERFUL 145 MPH HURRICANE...
...DANGEROUS SURF EXPECTED FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC SHORELINE...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.0N 61.2W
ABOUT 550 MI...885 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sam was located
near latitude 25.0 North, longitude 61.2 West. Sam is moving toward
the north-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this motion with an
slight increase in forward speed is expected tonight. A turn toward
the north is anticipated on Friday, and a northeastward motion is
forecast to begin on Saturday. On the forecast track, the core of
Sam will pass to the east of Bermuda early Saturday.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher
gusts. Sam is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are expected
during the next day or so, followed by gradual weakening. Sam is
forecast to remain a major hurricane into Saturday, with additional
weakening forecast later in the weekend.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 938 mb (27.70 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Sam can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning
Friday night or early Saturday.
SURF: Swells generated by Sam will impact the northern Leeward
Islands and the Greater Antilles, including Puerto Rico, during the
next few days. Swells are expected to reach Bermuda and the Bahamas
tomorrow, and then spread to the United States east coast by this
weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.
