Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Oct 12 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A tropical wave located near the Windward Islands has continued to 
become less organized this morning and development of the system is 
not expected. Locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds will be 
possible across portions of the central and northern Lesser 
Antilles today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

2. The northern portion of a tropical wave is producing a large area 
of disorganized showers and thunderstorms across Hispaniola, the 
Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern Bahamas. Development of this 
system, if any, will be slow to occur during the next couple of days 
due to unfavorable environmental conditions. The system is expected 
to interact with a front by the end of the week and further 
development is unlikely after that time. Regardless of development, 
locally heavy rainfall is possible over portions of Hispaniola, the 
Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern Bahamas during the next day 
or two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Oct 11 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A tropical wave located about 350 miles east-southeast of the 
Windward Islands is producing an area of showers and a few 
thunderstorms. Some slow development is possible during the next day 
or two while the system moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph 
toward the Lesser Antilles. Strong upper-level winds are expected to 
limit further development on Tuesday.  Regardless of development, 
the system could produce locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds 
across portions of the central and northern Lesser Antilles on 
Tuesday, and across the Virgin Islands and Leeward Islands on 
Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

2. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with another tropical wave located over the eastern Caribbean Sea has decreased since yesterday. Environmental conditions are not expected to support development of this system for the next day or two. However, some gradual development is possible beginning on Wednesday when the system nears the southeastern Bahamas. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over portions of the Lesser 
Antilles, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola during the next couple of 
days. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Oct 10 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A non-tropical low pressure area located about 75 miles south of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, continues to produce disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms.  Recent radar and satellite imagery indicates that the circulation of the low has become less defined since this morning. Dry air and strong upper-level winds are expected to prevent any further development of this system whileit moves slowly northward or north-northeastward through Monday. 
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds 
are still possible over portions of the North Caroling Outer Banks 
through Monday and information on these hazards can be found in 
products issued by your local National Weather Service Office. 
Additional information on this low pressure system, including gale 
warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National 
Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

2. A tropical wave located about a little more than 500 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands continues to produce a large area of disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions are forecast to be marginally conducive, and some limited development could occur during the next day or so while the system moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph.  After that time, strong upper-level winds are expected to limit further development. 
The disturbance is forecast to approach the central and northern 
Lesser Antilles by late Monday and early Tuesday.  Regardless of 
development, the system could produce locally heavy rainfall and 
gusty winds across portions of the central and northern Lesser 
Antilles on Tuesday, and across the Virgin Islands and Leeward 
Islands on Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

3. Another tropical wave located over the eastern Caribbean Sea is 
producing a large area of disorganized cloudiness and showers over 
portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto 
Rico. Unfavorable upper-level winds are expected to limit any 
development over the next day or so, but environmental conditions 
could become a little more conducive for some gradual development of the system when it is located near the southeastern Bahamas around midweek. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over portions of the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and 
Hispaniola during the next couple of days. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Oct 10 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized in association with a large, non-tropical low pressure area located about 80 miles south of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.  An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft that investigated the low earlier today found that the system was still producing a small area of gale-force winds just offshore the North Carolina outer banks. However, dry air and strong upper-level winds are expected to decrease the chance for further development of this system. The low is forecast to move slowly northeastward today, with the center remaining just offshore the eastern North Carolina coast this afternoon and tonight.  Interests in that area should continue to monitor the progress of this system and refer to local National Weather Service office products for more information. Regardless of development, intermittent periods of locally heavy rains and gusty winds will affect southeastern and eastern portions of North Carolina during the next day or so.  Additional information on this low pressure system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

2. Recent satellite-derived surface wind data indicate that a vigorous tropical wave located about 500 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands is producing a concentrated area of cloudiness and thunderstorms near the wave axis. Environmental conditions are forecast to be marginally conducive for some additional development of this system while it moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph over the next few days. The disturbance is expected to approach the central and northern Lesser Antilles by late Monday and early Tuesday, and interests in these areas should monitor the progress of this system.  Regardless of development, the system will produce 
locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds across portions of the 
central and northern Lesser Antilles on Tuesday, and across the 
Virgin Islands and northern Lesser Antilles on Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Oct 9 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A well-defined, non-tropical low pressure system located about 200 miles southeast of Morehead City and Wilmington, North Carolina, continues to produce a large area of cloudiness and disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions could briefly become marginally conducive for the low to acquire subtropical characteristics through early Sunday.  However, by late Sunday and Monday, environmental conditions should become unfavorable for any further development.  The low is forecast to move slowly northwestward during the next day or so, and approach the North Carolina coast tonight and early Sunday.  Therefore, interests along the North Carolina coast should monitor the progress of this system. 

Regardless of development, intermittent periods of locally heavy 
rains and gusty winds will affect southeastern and eastern portions of North Carolina during the next day or two.  An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the low this afternoon.  Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Oct 8 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An elongated area of low pressure located more than 150 miles off 
the coast of South Carolina is producing disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms well to the east of the center of circulation. Strong 
upper-level winds should prevent any significant tropical or 
subtropical development during the next day or two. By Sunday, 
however, environmental conditions could briefly become marginally 
conducive for some subtropical development of the low. By early 
next week, the low is expected to interact with a frontal boundary, 
which should end the opportunity for any subtropical or tropical 
formation. Regardless of development, the low is forecast to meander 
just offshore the Carolinas for the next few days, occasionally 
bringing locally heavy rains and gusty winds to eastern portions of 
the Carolinas through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Oct 7 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A weak area of low pressure located about 100 miles off the coasts 
of Georgia and South Carolina continues to produce disorganized 
showers and thunderstorms, well to the northeast of the center of 
circulation.  Strong upper-level winds should limit significant 
tropical or subtropical development during the next few days while 
the low moves northeastward at about 5 mph off the coasts of the 
Carolinas.  Some non-tropical development will be possible over the 
weekend due to the system interacting with a frontal boundary.  
Regardless of development, this system could bring gusty winds and 
locally heavy rain to portions of the Carolinas through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Oct 5 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on 
Post-Tropical Cyclone Sam, located over the far North Atlantic.

1. A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms is located 
east of a surface trough that extends from the central and 
southeastern Bahamas northward over the adjacent southwestern 
Atlantic waters.  Upper-level winds are not expected to be favorable 
for significant tropical development of this system while it moves 
slowly northwestward over the next several days.  By this weekend, 
the system is forecast to interact with a front near the coast of 
the southeastern United States.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Sam, located more than 600 miles south-southwest of Cape Race, 
Newfoundland, and on Tropical Depression Victor, located over the 
central tropical Atlantic.

1. A large area of disorganized cloudiness and showers over the 
southeastern Bahamas and adjacent southwestern Atlantic waters is 
associated with a surface trough.  Upper-level winds are expected 
to be only marginally conducive, and any development of this system should be slow to occur while it moves west-northwestward at around 10 mph through Monday, followed by a slow northwestward motion through the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

BULLETIN
Hurricane Sam Advisory Number  40
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182021
1100 AM AST Sat Oct 02 2021

...STEADFAST SAM MAINTAINING CATEGORY 4 WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.9N 59.3W
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM ENE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 940 MI...1515 KM SSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sam was located
near latitude 33.9 North, longitude 59.3 West. Sam is moving toward
the northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h).  This general track with an
increase in forward speed is expected for the next few days.  On
the forecast track, Sam will continue to move away from Bermuda.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Sam is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some slow weakening is forecast during the
next 36 hours, followed by more significant weakening early next
week.  Sam could become a powerful post-tropical cyclone on Tuesday.

Sam is becoming a large tropical cyclone.  Hurricane-force winds 
extend outward up to 65 miles (100 km) from the center and 
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 945 mb (27.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Sam can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages.

SURF:  Swells generated by Sam will impact the northern Leeward
Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the eastern United
States and Atlantic Canada for the next couple of days.  These
swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.