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Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number  36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022024
1000 AM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024

Beryl has become better organized this morning.  Satellite images
show deep convection becoming more symmetric around the center, and Brownsville radar has been showing an eyewall forming, although still open on the northwest side.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft recently reported maximum flight-level winds of 62 kt with the central pressure falling to 992 mb, so the initial wind speed is raised to 55 kt.

Further intensification is likely as Beryl moves over very warm
waters within light shear conditions.  Rapid intensification is a
distinct possibility if the core can become isolated from the dry 
air that has been inhibiting intensification during the last day or so. While there are no changes to the intensity forecast based on the latest guidance, we are expecting Beryl to be intensifying up until landfall early Monday, and people should be preparing for the possibility of a category 2 hurricane landfall.

Beryl continues to move northwestward at 9 kt.  The storm 
should turn north-northwest this afternoon and make landfall 
along the middle Texas coast early on Monday.  The new forecast 
is very close to the previous one, just a shade to the east. After 
Beryl moves inland, the latest guidance still shows the system 
accelerating farther northeastward and become a post-tropical 
cyclone.  This should bring the threat of flash flooding well into 
Missouri.


Key Messages:

1.  There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation 
along the coast of Texas from the north entrance to the Padre Island National Seashore to Sabine Pass, including Matagorda Bay and Galveston Bay.  Residents in those areas should follow any advice given by local officials and follow evacuation orders.

2. Beryl is forecast to bring damaging hurricane-force winds to 
portions of the Texas coast tonight and early Monday. A Hurricane 
Warning is in effect from Baffin Bay to San Luis Pass. Preparations should be rushed to completion before tropical storm conditions begin late today.

3. Flash and urban flooding, some of which may be locally 
considerable, is expected across portions of the middle and upper 
Texas Gulf Coast and eastern Texas today through Monday night. 
River flooding is also expected.

4. Rip currents will cause life-threatening beach conditions through Monday across much of the Gulf Coast. Beachgoers should heed warning flags and the advice of lifeguards and local officials before venturing into the water.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/1500Z 25.9N  95.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  08/0000Z 27.1N  95.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  08/1200Z 29.2N  96.2W   75 KT  85 MPH...INLAND
 36H  09/0000Z 31.4N  95.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 48H  09/1200Z 33.6N  94.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 60H  10/0000Z 36.2N  91.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 72H  10/1200Z 38.6N  89.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 96H  11/1200Z 42.8N  83.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H  12/1200Z 46.0N  79.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$

Today is the first Tropical Outlook of the 2022 Season. It is possible we could see some development before the official start of the season which is June 1.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun May 15 2022

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

Today, May 15th, marks the first day of routine issuance of the Atlantic basin Tropical Weather Outlook in 2022. This product describes significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for tropical cyclone formation during the next five days. The Tropical Weather Outlook is issued from May 15 through November 30 each year. The issuance times of this product are 2 AM, 8 AM, 2 PM, and 8 PM EDT. After the change to standard time in November, the issuance times are 1 AM, 7 AM, 1 PM, and 7 PM EST.

A Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued to provide updates, as necessary, in between the regularly scheduled issuances of the Tropical Weather Outlook. Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued under the same WMO and AWIPS headers as the regular Tropical Weather Outlooks.

A graphical version of the Tropical Weather Outlook is available on the web at: https://www.hurricanes.gov.

$$ Forecaster Brown