Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number  36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022024
1000 AM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024

Beryl has become better organized this morning.  Satellite images
show deep convection becoming more symmetric around the center, and Brownsville radar has been showing an eyewall forming, although still open on the northwest side.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft recently reported maximum flight-level winds of 62 kt with the central pressure falling to 992 mb, so the initial wind speed is raised to 55 kt.

Further intensification is likely as Beryl moves over very warm
waters within light shear conditions.  Rapid intensification is a
distinct possibility if the core can become isolated from the dry 
air that has been inhibiting intensification during the last day or so. While there are no changes to the intensity forecast based on the latest guidance, we are expecting Beryl to be intensifying up until landfall early Monday, and people should be preparing for the possibility of a category 2 hurricane landfall.

Beryl continues to move northwestward at 9 kt.  The storm 
should turn north-northwest this afternoon and make landfall 
along the middle Texas coast early on Monday.  The new forecast 
is very close to the previous one, just a shade to the east. After 
Beryl moves inland, the latest guidance still shows the system 
accelerating farther northeastward and become a post-tropical 
cyclone.  This should bring the threat of flash flooding well into 
Missouri.


Key Messages:

1.  There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation 
along the coast of Texas from the north entrance to the Padre Island National Seashore to Sabine Pass, including Matagorda Bay and Galveston Bay.  Residents in those areas should follow any advice given by local officials and follow evacuation orders.

2. Beryl is forecast to bring damaging hurricane-force winds to 
portions of the Texas coast tonight and early Monday. A Hurricane 
Warning is in effect from Baffin Bay to San Luis Pass. Preparations should be rushed to completion before tropical storm conditions begin late today.

3. Flash and urban flooding, some of which may be locally 
considerable, is expected across portions of the middle and upper 
Texas Gulf Coast and eastern Texas today through Monday night. 
River flooding is also expected.

4. Rip currents will cause life-threatening beach conditions through Monday across much of the Gulf Coast. Beachgoers should heed warning flags and the advice of lifeguards and local officials before venturing into the water.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/1500Z 25.9N  95.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  08/0000Z 27.1N  95.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  08/1200Z 29.2N  96.2W   75 KT  85 MPH...INLAND
 36H  09/0000Z 31.4N  95.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 48H  09/1200Z 33.6N  94.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 60H  10/0000Z 36.2N  91.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 72H  10/1200Z 38.6N  89.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 96H  11/1200Z 42.8N  83.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H  12/1200Z 46.0N  79.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$

Today is the first Tropical Outlook of the 2022 Season. It is possible we could see some development before the official start of the season which is June 1.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun May 15 2022

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

Today, May 15th, marks the first day of routine issuance of the Atlantic basin Tropical Weather Outlook in 2022. This product describes significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for tropical cyclone formation during the next five days. The Tropical Weather Outlook is issued from May 15 through November 30 each year. The issuance times of this product are 2 AM, 8 AM, 2 PM, and 8 PM EDT. After the change to standard time in November, the issuance times are 1 AM, 7 AM, 1 PM, and 7 PM EST.

A Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued to provide updates, as necessary, in between the regularly scheduled issuances of the Tropical Weather Outlook. Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued under the same WMO and AWIPS headers as the regular Tropical Weather Outlooks.

A graphical version of the Tropical Weather Outlook is available on the web at: https://www.hurricanes.gov.

$$ Forecaster Brown

Above-average activity predicted for 2022 hurricane season

• A 71 percent chance at least one major hurricane will make landfall on the U.S. coastline in 2022 (the long-term average probability is 52 percent)
• A 47 percent chance a major hurricane will make landfall on the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida Peninsula (the long-term average is 31 percent)
• A 46 percent chance a major hurricane will make landfall on the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle west to Brownsville (the long-term average is 30 percent).

HSFAT2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1630 UTC FRI NOV 05 2021

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SECURITE

ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND
GULF OF MEXICO

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC FRI NOV 05.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SAT NOV 06.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SUN NOV 07.

.WARNINGS.

...ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...
.STATIONARY FRONT FROM 31N74W TO 28N80W. N OF FRONT NE WINDS 25 
TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.12 HOUR FORECAST STATIONARY FRONT FROM 31N73W TO 29N81W. N OF 
30N W OF 78W NE TO E WINDS 30 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT. 
ELSEWHERE N OF FRONT NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES 1007 MB NEAR 30N80W WITH COLD FRONT 
TO NEAR 23N80W. STATIONARY FRONT FROM LOW CENTER TO 31N76W. N OF 
30N W OF 80W N WINDS 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT. ELSEWHERE N 
OF 29N W OF COLD FRONT N WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. N 
OF STATIONARY FRONT NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. 
N OF 30N BETWEEN 73W AND 76W SE TO S WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 
TO 10 FT. REMAINDER OF THE AREA W OF A LINE FROM 31N73W TO 
28N78W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN NE SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES 1006 MB JUST N OF AREA NEAR 31N77W. 
COLD FRONT FROM 31N71W TO NEAR 21N76W. N OF 27N BETWEEN 73W AND 
77W SW TO W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT IN NE SWELL. N 
OF 27N W OF 77W W TO NW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. N OF 28N E OF FRONT 
TO A LINE FROM 31N65W TO 28N68W SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 
9 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA N PF 27N W OF A LINE FROM 31N66W TO 
27N74W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN NE SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT FROM 31N65W TO 21N71W. REINFORCING 
COLD FRONT FROM 31N72W TO 26N79W. W OF REINFORCING FRONT NW TO N 
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT IN NE SWELL. N OF 26N E OF 
FRONT TO A LINE FROM 31N68W TO 26N65W SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 
8 TO 10 FT. ELSEWHERE N OF 26N AND W OF A LINE FROM 31N67W TO 
26N70W AND E OF THE BAHAMAS WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT 
IN NE SWELL.

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...
.LOW PRES 1009 MB NEAR 26.5N86W WITH COLD FRONT TO NEAR 18N94W. 
STATIONARY FRONT FROM LOW CENTER TO 27N82W. FROM 26N TO 28N W OF 
LOW CENTER N WINDS 30 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. ELSEWHERE N OF 
23N W OF FRONT TO 89W N WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. N OF 
STATIONARY FRONT E OF 90W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 9 
FT. FROM 18N TO 25N W OF 95W NW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT...EXCEPT 25 TO 
30 KT NEAR THE VERACRUZ REGION. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT SE OF AREA. N OF 23N E OF 86W NW TO 
N WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST N OF 25N BETWEEN 82W AND 85W N WINDS 20 TO 25 
KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. 

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2230 UTC THU NOV 4 2021

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SECURITE

ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND
GULF OF MEXICO

SYNOPSIS VALID 1800 UTC THU NOV 4.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC FRI NOV  5.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC SAT NOV  6.

.WARNINGS.

...ATLC GALE WARNING...
.06 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT FROM 31N77W TO 29N81W. WITHIN 
30.5N79W TO 30N80W TO 30N81W TO 31N81W TO 31N78W TO 30.5N79W N 
TO NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT FROM 31N70W TO 27N80W. WITHIN 
30N80W TO 30N81W TO 31N81W TO 31N76W TO 30N80W NE WINDS 20 TO 30 
KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.
.30 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT FROM 31N69W TO LOW PRES NEAR 27N84W
1010 MB. WITHIN 30N76W TO 29N79W TO 29N80W TO 31N81W TO 31N74W 
TO 30N76W E WINDS 20 TO 30 KT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE. 
SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN NE SWELL...HIGHEST N OF 30N.
.42 HOUR FORECAST STATIONARY FRONT FROM 31N70W TO LOW PRES NEAR 
29N80W 1008 MB. WITHIN 30.5N76W TO 30N78W TO 30N81W TO 31N81W TO 
31N76W TO 30.5N76W NE TO E WINDS 30 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT IN
NE SWELL. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 29N76W TO 28N80W TO 31N81W TO 31N74W 
TO 29N76W SE TO S WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST STATIONARY FRONT FROM 31N69W TO LOW PRES NEAR 
30N80W 1006 MB. WITHIN 30N81W TO 31N81W TO 31N80W TO 30N81W N TO
NE WINDS 30 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT IN NE SWELL. ELSEWHERE 
WITHIN 27N80W TO 29N81W TO 31N79W TO 31N73W TO 30N73W TO 27N80W 
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN NE SWELL. 

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...
.18 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT FROM LOW PRES NEAR 26N86W 
1012 MB TO 19N93W. WITHIN 27N84W TO 27N87W TO 29N86W TO 29N83W 
TO 27N84W NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT FROM LOW PRES NEAR 26N85W 1010 MB 
TO 17N93W. WITHIN 28N84W TO 26N86W TO 26N87W TO 29N87W TO 30N84W 
TO 28N84W NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.
.30 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT FROM LOW PRES NEAR 27N84W 1010 MB 
TO 17N92W. WITHIN 26N85W TO 27N85W TO 28N84W TO 27N84W TO 26N85W 
N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE. SEAS
9 TO 11 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 26N84W TO 26N87W TO 29N87W TO 
30N84W TO 29N83W TO 26N84W N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 9
FT.
.42 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT FROM 27N83W TO 17N91W. WITHIN 
25N83W TO 25N84W TO 27N85W TO 30N85W TO 29N83W TO 25N83W N WINDS 
20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 25N84W TO 24N84W TO 
24N86W TO 26N87W TO 28N85W TO 25N84W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 
TO 9 FT IN N SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT FROM 26N81W TO 17N90W. WITHIN 
27N84W TO 28N85W TO 30N84W TO 29N83W TO 27N84W N WINDS 20 TO 25 
KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 25N83W TO 23N84W TO 
25N86W TO 27N85W TO 27N84W TO 25N83W...INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF 
FLORIDA...WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN N SWELL.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.GULF OF MEXICO STATIONARY FRONT FROM 29N83W TO 27N91W THEN WARM
TO LOW PRES NEAR 23N95W 1015 MB THEN COLD TO 23N98W. WITHIN 
26N96W TO 26N97W TO 27N97W TO 28N97W TO 27N96W TO 26N96W N TO NE 
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.06 HOUR FORECAST STATIONARY FRONT FROM 29N83W TO 27N91W THEN 
COLD TO LOW PRES NEAR 23N90W 1014 MB THEN TO 22N98W. WITHIN 
23N97W TO 22N97W TO 24N98W TO 25N97W TO 23N97W N WINDS 20 TO 25 
KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. 
.24 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT FROM LOW PRES NEAR 26N85W 1010 MB 
TO 17N93W. WITHIN 20N95W TO 19N95W TO 19N96W TO 21N97W TO 21N96W 
TO 20N95W...INCLUDING WITHIN 60 NM OF VERACRUZ...NW TO N WINDS 20
TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. 
.36 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT SE OF AREA. CONDITIONS IMPROVE. 
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.