BULLETIN Hurricane Ida Intermediate Advisory Number 7A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021 200 AM EDT Sat Aug 28 2021 ...IDA MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY BEFORE REACHING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.5N 84.7W ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM WNW OF HAVANA CUBA ABOUT 560 MI...900 KM SE OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * East of Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border * Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and Artemisa, and the Isle of Youth * Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Sabine Pass to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge Louisiana * Mobile Bay A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cameron Louisiana to west of Intracoastal City Louisiana * Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, and Havana * Cameron Louisiana to west of Intracoastal City Louisiana * Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the northern U.S. Gulf coast should monitor the progress of this system. Interests in the Dry Tortugas should also monitor the progress of Ida. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ida was located near latitude 23.5 North, longitude 84.7 West. Ida is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this general motion should continue until Ida reaches the northern Gulf coast on Sunday. A slower northward motion is forecast after Ida moves inland. On the forecast track, the center of Ida will move over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico today and over the north central Gulf of Mexico on Sunday. Ida is then expected to make landfall along the U.S. northern Gulf coast within the hurricane warning area by late Sunday. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and Ida is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it approaches the northern Gulf coast on Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ida can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the immediate coast of the Isle of Youth and near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast of western Cuba. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Morgan City, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...10-15 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake Borgne...7-11 ft Intracoastal City, LA to Morgan City, LA including Vermilion Bay...6-9 ft Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL border...4-7 ft Lake Pontchartrain...4-7 ft Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft Pecan Island, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...3-5 ft MS/AL border to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...2-4 ft Sabine Pass to Pecan Island, LA...2-4 ft Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation values may be higher than those shown above. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are occuring over the Isle of Youth and portions of western Cuba, and these winds will continue for a few more hours. Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area along the northern Gulf coast beginning Sunday with tropical storm conditions expected to begin by late Saturday night or early Sunday morning. RAINFALL: Ida is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches across western Cuba, including the Isle of Youth. These rainfall amounts may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. As Ida approaches the central Gulf Coast Sunday afternoon, total rainfall accumulations of 8 to 16 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches are possible across southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi through Monday. This is likely to result in considerable flash and riverine flooding impacts. Ida is forecast to turn northeast as it moves inland later Monday, with rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches possible from northeastern Louisiana and central Mississippi into the Tennessee Valley. This is likely to result in flash and riverine flooding impacts. SURF: Swells generated by Ida will continue to affect western Cuba through Saturday morning. Swells will begin reaching portions of the northern Gulf coast Saturday night or early Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
Category Archives: Weather
Hurricane Ida Advisory # 6A
BULLETIN Hurricane Ida Intermediate Advisory Number 6A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021 800 PM EDT Fri Aug 27 2021 ...IDA INLAND OVER PINAR DEL RIO CUBA... ...FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY THIS WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.4N 83.5W ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SW OF HAVANA CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * East of Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border * Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and Artemisa, and the Isle of Youth * Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Sabine Pass to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge Louisiana * Mobile Bay A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cameron Louisiana to west of Intracoastal City Louisiana * Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, and Havana * Cameron Louisiana to west of Intracoastal City Louisiana * Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the northern U.S. Gulf coast should monitor the progress of this system. Interests in the Dry Tortugas should also monitor the progress of Ida. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ida was located over western Cuba near latitude 22.4 North, longitude 83.5 West. Ida is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion should continue until Ida reaches the northern Gulf coast on Sunday. A slower northward motion is forecast after Ida reaches the northern Gulf coast. On the forecast track, the center of Ida will remain over western Cuba for another hour or two, and then move over the southeastern and central Gulf of Mexico later tonight and Saturday. Ida is forecast to make landfall along the U.S. northern Gulf coast within the hurricane warning area on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is expected when Ida moves over the southeastern and central Gulf of Mexico over the weekend, and Ida is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it approaches the northern Gulf coast on Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). A wind gust to 46 mph (74 km/h) has recently been reported on Cayo Largo, Cuba. The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ida can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the immediate coast of the Isle of Youth and near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast of western Cuba. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Morgan City, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...10-15 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake Borgne...7-11 ft Intracoastal City, LA to Morgan City, LA including Vermilion Bay...6-9 ft Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL border...4-7 ft Lake Pontchartrain...4-7 ft Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft Pecan Island, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...3-5 ft MS/AL border to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...2-4 ft Sabine Pass to Pecan Island, LA...2-4 ft Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation values may be higher than those shown above. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are occuring over the Isle of Youth and portions of western Cuba and will continue through tonight in western Cuba. Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area along the northern Gulf coast beginning Sunday with tropical storm conditions expected to begin by late Saturday night. RAINFALL: Ida is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 10 inches with maximum totals of 15 inches across Jamaica. Rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches are expected across the Cayman Islands and western Cuba, including the Isle of Youth. These rainfall amounts may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. As Ida approaches the central Gulf Coast Sunday afternoon, total rainfall accumulations of 8 to 16 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches are possible from southeast Louisiana to coastal Mississippi and Alabama through Monday morning. This is likely to result in considerable flash, urban, small stream, and riverine flooding impacts. Ida is forecast to turn northeast as it moves inland later Monday with rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches possible across southern and central Mississippi into the Tennessee Valley. This is likely to result in flash, urban, small stream, and riverine flooding impacts. SURF: Swells generated by this system will affect the Cayman Islands and Cuba through tonight. Swells will begin reaching portions of the northern Gulf coast Saturday night or early Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. I
Ida Update Statement
Hurricane Ida Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021 725 PM EDT Fri Aug 27 2021 ...IDA MAKES LANDFALL IN PINAR DEL RIO CUBA... Satellite images, radar data from Cuba, and data from the NOAA Hurricane Hunters indicate that Ida has made landfall in the Cuban province of Pinar Del Rio, about 20 miles (30 km) east of La Coloma. Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 80 mph (130 km/h). SUMMARY OF 725 PM EDT...2325 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.3N 83.3W ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SW OF HAVANA CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES
Hurricane Ida Advisory # 6
BULLETIN
Hurricane Ida Advisory Number 6...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
500 PM EDT Fri Aug 27 2021
Corrected typo in the second headline
...CENTER OF IDA APPROACHING WESTERN CUBA...
...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.1N 83.2W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM NW OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SW OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from east of Rockefeller
Wildlife Refuge, Louisiana, to the Mississippi/Alabama border
including Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake
Maurepas.
A Hurricane Warning has been issued for the coast of Louisiana from
Intracoastal City to the Mouth of the Pearl River, including Lake
Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans.
A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the northern Gulf
coast from the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama
border. A Tropical Storm Warning has also been issued for the coast
of Louisiana from west of Intracoastal City to Cameron.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* East of Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge Louisiana to the
Mississippi/Alabama border
* Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and Artemisa, and the Isle of
Youth
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Sabine Pass to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge Louisiana
* Mobile Bay
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cameron Louisiana to west of Intracoastal City Louisiana
* Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, and Havana
* Cameron Louisiana to west of Intracoastal City Louisiana
* Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests elsewhere along the northern U.S. Gulf coast should
monitor the progress of this system. Interests in the Dry Tortugas
should also monitor the progress of Ida.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ida was located
near latitude 22.1 North, longitude 83.2 West. Ida is moving toward
the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion should
continue until Ida reaches the northern Gulf coast on Sunday. A
slower northward motion is forecast after Ida reaches the northern
Gulf coast. On the forecast track, the center of Ida will pass
over western Cuba during the next several hours, and then move over
the southeastern and central Gulf of Mexico later tonight and
Saturday. Ida is forecast to make landfall along the U.S. northern
Gulf coast within the hurricane warning area on Sunday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts. Little change in strength is anticipated while
Ida moves over western Cuba this evening. Steady to rapid
strengthening is expected when Ida moves over the southeastern and
central Gulf of Mexico over the weekend, and Ida is expected to be
an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it approaches the
northern Gulf coast on Sunday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km). A wind gust to 46 mph (74 km/h) has recently been
reported on Cayo Largo, Cuba.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ida can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages.
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore
winds along the immediate coast of the Isle of Youth and near and to
the east of where the center crosses the coast of western Cuba.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.
The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Morgan City, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...10-15 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake
Borgne...7-11 ft
Intracoastal City, LA to Morgan City, LA including Vermilion
Bay...6-9 ft
Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL border...4-7 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...4-7 ft
Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft
Pecan Island, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...3-5 ft
MS/AL border to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...2-4 ft
Sabine Pass to Pecan Island, LA...2-4 ft
Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm
Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation
values may be higher than those shown above.
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.
WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are occuring over
the Isle of Youth and portions of western Cuba and will continue
through tonight in western Cuba.
Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area
along the northern Gulf coast beginning Sunday with tropical
storm conditions expected to begin by late Saturday night.
RAINFALL: Ida is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 6 to 10 inches with maximum totals of 15 inches across Jamaica.
Rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
20 inches are expected across the Cayman Islands and western Cuba,
including the Isle of Youth. These rainfall amounts may produce
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
As Ida approaches the central Gulf Coast Sunday afternoon, total
rainfall accumulations of 8 to 16 inches with isolated maximum
amounts of 20 inches are possible from southeast Louisiana to
coastal Mississippi and Alabama through Monday morning. This is
likely to result in considerable flash, urban, small stream, and
riverine flooding impacts.
Ida is forecast to turn northeast as it moves inland later Monday
with rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches possible across southern and
central Mississippi into the Tennessee Valley. This is likely to
result in flash, urban, small stream, and riverine flooding impacts.
SURF: Swells generated by this system will affect the Cayman
Islands and Cuba through tonight. Swells will begin reaching
portions of the northern Gulf coast Saturday night or early Sunday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.
Louisiana Evacuation Info
New Orleans announces evacuations as Ida, now a hurricane, takes aim at Louisiana coast
USA TODAY
Ida strengthened into a hurricane Friday afternoon as Gulf Coast states prepared for a direct hit from the storm, which forecasters warn could rapidly intensify into one of the strongest storms of the Atlantic hurricane season so far.
New Orleans issued its first evacuations for coastal communities outside the city’s levee system that protects from flooding. The city’s mayor, LaToya Cantrell, ordered those in coastal communities bordering both Lake Borgne and Lake Pontchartrain — two large bodies of water that connect to the Gulf of Mexico — to leave immediately. Other coastal communities were placed under a voluntary evacuation order. “Now is the time,” Cantrell said.
The incoming storm could provide a test for the city’s new levee system , which was reconstructed after Hurricane Katrina and its failure in the 2005 storm that helped flood 80% of the city with areas under 6 to 20 feet of water.
Ida is forecast to hit the area Sunday — 16 years to the day that Katrina made landfall in Louisiana and Mississippi as a catastrophic Category 3 storm. Nearly 2,000 people died during Katrina and damage was reportedly $125 billion, according to NOAA.
New Hurricane and storm surge watches were issued Friday morning for several Gulf Coast states. Forecasters say Ida could slam into Louisiana as a “devastating” Category 3 hurricane with winds up to 120 mph. “The forecast track has it headed straight towards New Orleans. Not good,” said Jim Kossin, a climate and hurricane scientist with the Climate Service.
The storm is shaping up to be “probably be the strongest storm of the season thus far,” AccuWeather senior meteorologist Dan Kottlowski said Thursday.
Louisiana Gov. John Bel Edwards declared a state of emergency Thursday evening due to the potential impacts from Ida.
“Unfortunately, all of Louisiana’s coastline is currently in the forecast cone for Tropical Storm Ida, which is strengthening and could come ashore in Louisiana as a major hurricane as Gulf conditions are conducive for rapid intensification,” Edwards said. “Now is the time for people to finalize their emergency game plan, which should take into account the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic,” he added.
Small towns on the Gulf of Mexico coast have already started telling residents to flee and New Orleans is giving away free sandbags so residents can bolster their homes, Bloomberg News said.
When the system reaches the northern Gulf Coast on Sunday, the Hurricane Center predicts it will be “at or near major hurricane intensity.”
The Hurricane Center defines “major hurricanes” as Category 3 or higher. Category 3 storms have winds of 111-129 mph and “devastating damage will occur” with storms of that strength.
Hurricane Ida Advisory # 5A
BULLETIN Hurricane Ida Intermediate Advisory Number 5A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021 200 PM EDT Fri Aug 27 2021 ...IDA MAKES LANDFALL AS A HURRICANE ON THE ISLE OF YOUTH... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.6N 82.7W ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM E OF THE CENTER OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH ABOUT 145 MI...245 KM E OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Cayman Islands has discontinued all Tropical Storm Warnings. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and Artemisa, and the Isle of Youth A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Sabine Pass to Alabama/Florida border * Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Mobile Bay A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cameron, Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, and Havana A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in central and western Cuba and elsewhere along the northern U.S. Gulf coast should monitor the progress of this system. Hurricane warnings will likely be required for portions of the northern Gulf coast later today. Interests in the Dry Tortugas should also monitor the progress of Ida. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ida was located by Cuban radar and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 21.6 North, longitude 82.7 West. Ida is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion should continue over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Ida will pass over the Isle of Youth during the next hour or so, move over western Cuba later today, and move over the southeastern and central Gulf of Mexico tonight and Saturday. Ida is forecast to make landfall along the U.S. northern Gulf coast within the hurricane watch area on Sunday. Reports from Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast before the center moves over western Cuba later today. Steady to rapid strengthening is expected when Ida moves over the southeastern and central Gulf of Mexico over the weekend, and Ida is expected to be a major hurricane when it approaches the northern Gulf coast. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 20 miles (30 km) from the center. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. Sustained winds of 38 mph (61 km/h) and a gust to 55 mph (89 km/h) has recently been observed on Cayo Largo, Cuba. The latest minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft data is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ida can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the immediate coast of the Isle of Youth and near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast of western Cuba. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Morgan City, LA to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake Borgne...7-11 ft Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA to Morgan City, LA including Vermilion Bay...4-7 ft Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL border...4-7 ft MS/AL border to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...3-5 ft Lake Pontchartrain...4-6 ft Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft Sabine Pass to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA...2-4 ft Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation values may be higher than those shown above. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are occuring over the Isle of Youth and are expected to spread over portions of western Cuba in the hurricane warning area by later this afternoon and evening. Tropical storm conditions are already beginning to reach portions of western Cuba and will continue through early Saturday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area along the northern Gulf coast late Saturday night or Sunday and tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area late Saturday night or Sunday. RAINFALL: Ida is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 10 inches with maximum totals of 15 inches across Jamaica. Rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches are expected across the Cayman Islands and western Cuba, including the Isle of Youth. These rainfall amounts may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. As Ida approaches the central Gulf Coast Sunday afternoon, total rainfall accumulations of 8 to 16 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches are possible from southeast Louisiana to coastal Mississippi and Alabama through Monday morning. Ida is forecast to turn northeast as it moves inland later Monday with rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches possible across southern and central Mississippi. This is likely to result in considerable flash, urban, small stream, and riverine flooding. SURF: Swells generated by this system will affect the Cayman Islands and Cuba through tonight. Swells will begin reaching portions of the northern Gulf coast Saturday night or early Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
Ida now Cat. 1 Hurricane
Hurricane Ida Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021 115 PM EDT Fri Aug 27 2021 ...IDA STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE AS IT NEARS THE ISLE OF YOUTH... Data from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that Ida has strengthened into a hurricane as it approaches the Isle of Youth, Cuba. The maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. A sustained wind of 44 mph (70 km/h) and a gust of 60 mph (96 km/h) were recently reported on Cayo Largo, Cuba. SUMMARY OF 110 PM EDT...1710 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.4N 82.4W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM ESE OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM E OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES
TS Ida Advisory # 5
BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ida Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021 1100 AM EDT Fri Aug 27 2021 ...IDA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH AND WESTERN CUBA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.7N 82.1W ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM SE OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM ESE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Cuba has replace the Tropical Storm Warning with a Hurricane Warning for the Isle of Youth, and the Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and Artemisa. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and Artemisa, and the Isle of Youth A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Sabine Pass to Alabama/Florida border * Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Mobile Bay A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cameron, Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Little Cayman and Cayman Brac * Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, and Havana A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in central and western Cuba and elsewhere along the northern U.S. Gulf coast should monitor the progress of this system. Hurricane warnings will likely be required for portions of the northern Gulf coast later today. Interests in the Dry Tortugas should also monitor the progress of Ida. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ida was located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 82.1 West. Ida is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion should continue over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Ida will pass near or over the Isle of Youth and western Cuba later today, and move over the southeastern and central Gulf of Mexico tonight and Saturday. Ida is forecast to make landfall along the U.S. northern Gulf coast within the hurricane watch area on Sunday. Reports from Air Force and NOAA reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast today and Ida is expected to be a hurricane when it nears western Cuba later today. Steady to rapid strengthening is expected when Ida moves over the southeastern and central Gulf of Mexico over the weekend, and Ida is expected to be a major hurricane when it approaches the northern Gulf coast. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. A wind gust to 45 mph (72 km/h) was recently reported on Cayman Brac and a wind gust to 41 mph (67 km/h) has been observed on Cayo Largo, Cuba, within the past hour or two. The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ida can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the immediate coast of the Isle of Youth and near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast of western Cuba. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Morgan City, LA to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake Borgne...7-11 ft Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA to Morgan City, LA including Vermilion Bay...4-7 ft Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL border...4-7 ft MS/AL border to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...3-5 ft Lake Pontchartrain...4-6 ft Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft Sabine Pass to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA...2-4 ft Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation values may be higher than those shown above. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Little Cayman and Cayman Brac through early this afternoon. Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the Isle of Youth and portions of western Cuba in the Hurricane Warning area by later this afternoon and evening, with tropical storm conditions beginning within the next couple of hours on the Isle of Youth. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area along the northern Gulf coast late Saturday night or Sunday and tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area late Saturday night or Sunday. RAINFALL: Ida is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 10 inches with maximum totals of 15 inches across Jamaica. Rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches are expected across the Cayman Islands and western Cuba, including the Isle of Youth. These rainfall amounts may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. As Ida approaches the central Gulf Coast Sunday afternoon, total rainfall accumulations of 8 to 16 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches are possible from southeast Louisiana to coastal Mississippi and Alabama through Monday morning. Ida is forecast to turn northeast as it moves inland later Monday with rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches possible across southern and central Mississippi. This is likely to result in considerable flash, urban, small stream, and riverine flooding. SURF: Swells generated by this system will affect the Cayman Islands and Cuba through tonight. Swells will begin reaching portions of the northern Gulf coast Saturday night or early Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
TS Ida Advisory # 4A
BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ida Intermediate Advisory Number 4A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021 800 AM EDT Fri Aug 27 2021 ...AIR FORCE AND NOAA AIRCRAFT FIND IDA STRENGTHENING OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.3N 81.7W ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM NNW OF GRAND CAYMAN ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SE OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Cayman Islands has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Grand Cayman. The Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Little Cayman and Cayman Brac. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Sabine Pass to Alabama/Florida border * Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Mobile Bay A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cameron, Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Little Cayman and Cayman Brac * Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, Havana, Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in central and western Cuba and elsewhere along the northern U.S. Gulf coast should monitor the progress of this system. Hurricane warnings will likely be required for portions of the northern Gulf coast later today. Interests in the Dry Tortugas should also monitor the progress of Ida. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ida was located by reconnaissance aircraft and weather radar on Grand Cayman near latitude 20.3 North, longitude 81.7 West. Ida is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this general motion should continue over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Ida will move away from the Cayman Islands this morning, pass near or over the Isle of Youth and western Cuba later today, and move over the southeastern and central Gulf of Mexico tonight and Saturday. The system is forecast to approach the U.S. northern Gulf coast on Sunday. Data from Air Force Reserve and NOAA reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts, and additional steady to rapid strengthening is expected during the next few days. Ida is forecast to become a hurricane over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, and to be at or near major hurricane strength when it approaches the northern Gulf coast. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure from reconnaissance aircraft data is 996 mb (29.41 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Ida can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the immediate coast of the Isle of Youth and near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast of western Cuba. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Morgan City, LA to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake Borgne...7-11 ft Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA to Morgan City, LA including Vermilion Bay...4-7 ft Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL border...4-7 ft MS/AL border to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...3-5 ft Lake Pontchartrain...4-6 ft Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft Sabine Pass to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA...2-4 ft Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation values may be higher than those shown above. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Little Cayman and Cayman Brac this morning, and are expected to reach the Isle of Youth and portions of western Cuba in the warning area later today. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area along the northern Gulf coast late Saturday night or Sunday and tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area late Saturday night or Sunday. RAINFALL: Ida is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 10 inches with maximum totals of 15 inches across Jamaica. Rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches are expected across the Cayman Islands and western Cuba, including the Isle of Youth. These rainfall amounts may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. As Ida approaches the central Gulf Coast Sunday afternoon, total rainfall accumulations of 8 to 16 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches are possible from southeast Louisiana to coastal Mississippi and Alabama through Monday morning. Ida is forecast to turn northeast as it moves inland later Monday with rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches possible across southern and central Mississippi. This is likely to result in considerable flash, urban, small stream, and riverine flooding. SURF: Swells generated by this system will affect Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and Cuba tonight and Friday. Swells will begin reaching portions of the northern Gulf coast Saturday night or early Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
T.S. Ida has formed.
BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ida Intermediate Advisory Number 2A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021 800 PM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021 ...IDA FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT AND ACROSS WESTERN CUBA ON FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.0N 80.1W ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM W OF NEGRIL JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cayman Islands * Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, Havana, Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in central and western Cuba, in the northern Yucatan Peninsula, and along the northern U.S. Gulf coast should monitor the progress of this system. Watches may be required for a portion of the northern Gulf coast later tonight or Friday morning. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ida was located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 80.1 West. The storm is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion should continue over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Ida will pass near or over the Cayman Islands tonight, the Isle of Youth and western Cuba Friday, and over the southeastern and central Gulf of Mexico Friday night and Saturday. The system is forecast to approach the U.S. northern Gulf coast on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast during the next few days. Ida is forecast to become a hurricane when it is near western Cuba with additional strengthening expected while it moves over the Gulf of Mexico. Ida could be near major hurricane strength when it approaches the northern Gulf coast. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on Air Force Reserve reconnaissance data is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Ida can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the immediate coast of the Isle of Youth and near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast of western Cuba. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands tonight, and are expected to reach the Isle of Youth and portions of western Cuba in the warning area on Friday. RAINFALL: Ida is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 10 inches with maximum totals of 15 inches across Jamaica. Rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches are expected across the Cayman Islands and western Cuba, including the Isle of Youth. These rainfall amounts may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Ida may begin to bring rainfall and potential flooding impacts to the central Gulf Coast by early Sunday. SURF: Swells generated by this system will affect Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and Cuba tonight and Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.