Category Archives: Weather

Larry Advisory # 16

BULLETIN
Hurricane Larry Advisory Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122021
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 04 2021

...LARRY LARGER AND A LITTLE STRONGER...
...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG MANY
WESTERN ATLANTIC SHORES NEXT WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 45.8W
ABOUT 1055 MI...1700 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 1600 MI...2570 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located
near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 45.8 West. Larry is moving
toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A gradually slower
west-northwest to northwest motion is expected during the next few
days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 125 mph (205 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Larry is a category 3 hurricane on the 
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale and additional strengthening is 
forecast over the next day or two. Larry is expected to remain at 
major hurricane strength through the early part of next week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb (28.29 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Swells generated by Larry are expected to reach the Lesser
Antilles on Sunday, and will continue to spread westward to
portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda Monday
and Tuesday.  Significant swells will likely reach the eastern
United States coastline after Labor Day.  These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please
consult products from your local weather office.

Larry Advisory # 15

BULLETIN
Hurricane Larry Advisory Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122021
500 AM AST Sat Sep 04 2021

...LARRY FORECAST TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE FOR SEVERAL DAYS...
...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG MANY
WESTERN ATLANTIC SHORES NEXT WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 44.6W
ABOUT 1140 MI...1830 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located
near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 44.6 West. Larry is moving
toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h).  A slightly slower 
west-northwest to northwest motion is expected during the next few 
days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher 
gusts.  Larry is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson 
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Strengthening is forecast over the next day 
or two, and Larry is expected to remain at major hurricane strength 
through the early part of next week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Swells generated by Larry are expected to reach the Lesser
Antilles on Sunday, and will continue to spread westward to
portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda Monday
and Tuesday.  Significant swells will likely reach the eastern
United States coastline after Labor Day.  These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please
consult products from your local weather office.

Larry Advisory # 14

BULLETIN
Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 03 2021

…LARRY LUNGES TO MAJOR HURRICANE INTENSITY…
…DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG MANY
WESTERN ATLANTIC SHORES NEXT WEEK…

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST…0300 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…15.5N 43.3W
ABOUT 1230 MI…1980 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…115 MPH…185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH…26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…965 MB…28.50 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located
near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 43.3 West. Larry is moving
toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue through late Saturday. A motion toward the
northwest at a slower forward speed is forecast to begin Sunday
morning and continue through Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 115 mph (185 km/h)
with higher gusts. Larry is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is
forecast over the next day or two, and Larry is expected to remain
at major hurricane strength through the early part of next week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
SURF: Swells generated by Larry are expected to reach the Lesser
Antilles on Sunday, and will continue to spread westward to
portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda Monday
and Tuesday. Significant swells will likely reach the eastern
United States coastline after Labor Day. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

Larry Advisory # 13

BULLETIN
Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
500 PM AST Fri Sep 03 2021

…LARRY INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE…

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…15.0N 42.0W
ABOUT 1175 MI…1890 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1320 MI…2125 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…100 MPH…155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH…26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…978 MB…28.88 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located
near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 42.0 West. Larry is moving
toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue over the weekend. A turn to the
northwest is forecast by early next week.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the
next few days, and Larry is forecast to become a major hurricane
this weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
SURF: Swells generated by Larry are expected to reach the Lesser
Antilles on Sunday. Significant swells will likely reach Bermuda
and the eastern United States coastline after Labor Day. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

Larry Advisory # 12

BULLETIN
Hurricane Larry Advisory Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122021
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 03 2021

...LARRY APPEARS POISED TO INTENSIFY FURTHER...
...RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND HIGH SURF FROM LARRY'S SWELLS INCREASES
FOR THE LESSER ANTILLES BY SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 40.7W
ABOUT 1090 MI...1750 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1410 MI...2270 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located
near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 40.7 West. Larry is moving
toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue over the next few days. A turn to the
northwest is forecast by early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the
next few days, and Larry is forecast to become a major hurricane
this weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Swells generated by Larry are expected to reach the Lesser
Antilles on Sunday.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.

Hurricane Larry intensifies

BULLETIN
Hurricane Larry Advisory Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122021
500 AM AST Thu Sep 02 2021

...LARRY BECOMES A HURRICANE OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.0N 32.3W
ABOUT 545 MI...875 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located
near latitude 13.0 North, longitude 32.3 West.  Larry is moving
toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this general motion 
should continue through tonight.  A gradual turn toward the 
west-northwest and a decrease in forward speed are expected Friday 
and Friday night.  A slightly slower west-northwestward motion is 
expected on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast 
during the next couple of days, and Larry is expected to become a 
a major hurricane by Friday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

Larry Advisory # 4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Larry Advisory Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122021
200 PM CVT Wed Sep 01 2021

...LARRY STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES QUICKLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE
EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM CVT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.3N 27.6W
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM CVT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Larry was
located near latitude 12.3 North, longitude 27.6 West. Larry is
moving toward the west near 22 mph (35 km/h), and this general 
motion should continue through Thursday.  A gradual turn toward the 
west-northwest and a decrease in forward speed is expected Thursday 
night and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are now near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher 
gusts.  Additional strengthening is forecast, and Larry is expected 
to become a hurricane on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

T.s. Larry Advisory # 3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Larry Advisory Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122021
800 AM CVT Wed Sep 01 2021

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM LARRY OVER THE
EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM CVT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.3N 24.8W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM S OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM CVT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Larry was
located near latitude 12.3 North, longitude 24.8 West. Larry is
moving toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h).  A westward to 
west-northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of 
days, followed by a turn to the northwest over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) 
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the 
next few days and Larry is forecast to become a hurricane by late 
Thursday or Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM CVT.

T.D. 12 forms

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Twelve Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122021
800 PM CVT Tue Aug 31 2021

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
...FORECAST TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM CVT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.2N 21.1W
ABOUT 335 MI...535 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM CVT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twelve
was located near latitude 11.2 North, longitude 21.1 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph       
(26 km/h).  A turn toward the west is expected tonight, and a 
westward motion at a faster forward speed is expected during the 
next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected during the next couple of days and the 
depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight or on 
Wednesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

Ida Advisory # 17A

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ida Intermediate Advisory Number 17A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092021
700 AM CDT Mon Aug 30 2021

...IDA MOVING NORTHWARD OVER SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI...
...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS 
OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA, SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI, AND SOUTHERN 
ALABAMA...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.5N 90.8W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSW OF JACKSON MISSISSIPPI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
*Grand Isle, Louisiana, to the Alabama/Florida border

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Isle, Louisiana, to the Alabama/Florida border, including
Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary
actions to protect life and property from rising water and the
potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow
evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ida was 
located by NOAA Doppler weather radars, satellite data, and surface 
observations near latitude 31.5 North, longitude 90.8 West. Ida is 
moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general 
motion is forecast to continue today.  A faster northeastward motion 
is expected to begin by tonight and continue on Tuesday.  On the 
forecast track, the center of Ida will move farther inland over 
southwestern Mississippi this morning. Ida is then forecast to move 
over central and northeastern Mississippi this afternoon and 
tonight, and move across the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with 
higher gusts. Additional rapid weakening is forecast during the next 
day or so, and Ida is expected to become a tropical depression this 
afternoon.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km),
mainly southeast of the center over water. A coastal marine 
observing site at Dauphin Island, Alabama, recently reported 
sustained winds of 38 mph (61 km/h) and a gust to 46 mph (74 km/h).
A wind gust to 45 mph (72 km/h) was recently measured at Biloxi, 
Mississippi.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.32 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ida can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Pointe a la Hache, LA to Bay St. Louis, MS including Lake
Borgne...4-6 ft
Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain...4-6 ft
Bay St. Louis, LA to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...3-5 ft
Grand Isle, LA to Pointe a la Hache, LA...2-4 ft
Morgan City, LA to Grand Isle, LA...1-3 ft
AL/FL border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line including Pensacola
Bay...1-3 ft

Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm
Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation
values may be higher than those shown above.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves.  Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances.  For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue over portions of 
Louisiana, southern Mississippi, and southern Alabama through this 
morning or early afternoon.

RAINFALL:  Through Tuesday morning, Ida will produce additional
rainfall totals of 4 to 8 with localized higher amounts possible
across portions of southeast Louisiana into far southern
Mississippi. Storm total rainfall accumulations of 10 to 18 inches
with isolated maximum amounts of 24 inches is expected. Heavy rain
combined with storm surge has resulted in catastrophic impacts along
the southeast coast of Louisiana with life threatening flash
flooding and significant riverine flooding continuing farther
inland.

Ida is expected to turn northeast this morning and is forecast to
track across the Middle Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley and
Mid-Atlantic through Wednesday, producing the following rainfall
totals:

Coastal Alabama to the far western Florida panhandle: An additional
4 to 8 inches resulting in storm total accumulations of 6 to 12
inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches, today through
Tuesday morning.

Central Mississippi into far western Alabama: 4 to 8 inches with
isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches, today through tonight.

Middle Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley, Central/Southern Appalachians
into the Mid-Atlantic: 3 to 6 inches with isolated higher amounts,
Tuesday into Wednesday.

Considerable flash flooding is possible from the Lower Mississippi
Valley through the Middle Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley,
Central/Southern Appalachians, and into the Mid-Atlantic. Widespread
minor to isolated major riverine flooding is possible from the Lower
Mississippi Valley into far western Alabama through Wednesday.

TORNADOES:  A few tornadoes are possible today into tonight, mainly
across southeast Mississippi, southwest Alabama, and the western
Florida Panhandle.

SURF:  Swells will continue to affect portions of the northern Gulf 
coast through today.  These swells are likely to cause 
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult 
products from your local weather office.