Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Fri Sep 10 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Larry, located over the western Atlantic several hundred miles southwest of Newfoundland, Canada. 1. The northern portion of a tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over Honduras, the western Caribbean Sea, and portions of the Yucatan peninsula. This system is forecast to move into the Bay of Campeche and merge with a pre-existing surface trough located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by this weekend. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive to support gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form Sunday or Monday before the system moves onshore along the western Gulf of Mexico coast. Regardless of development, this disturbance is expected to produce heavy rains across portions of Central America through Saturday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. 2. A strong tropical wave is expected to emerge off of the west coast of Africa by tonight. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this weekend or early next week as the system moves west-northwestward over the far eastern Atlantic near the Cabo Verde Islands. Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
Category Archives: Weather
Tropical Outlook, 9/9
Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Thu Sep 9 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Larry, located over the western Atlantic a few hundred miles northeast of Bermuda, and on Tropical Depression Mindy, located offshore the southeast coast of the United States. 1. The northern portion of a tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over northeastern Honduras and the western Caribbean Sea. This system is forecast to move into the Bay of Campeche and merge with a pre-existing surface trough located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by this weekend. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive to support some gradual development, and a tropical depression could form by early next week before the system moves inland over mainland Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. 2. A strong tropical wave is expected to emerge off of the west coast of Africa in the next day or so. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form by early next week as the system moves west-northwestward over the far eastern Atlantic near the Cabo Verde Islands. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
Larry Advisory # 35A
BULLETIN Hurricane Larry Intermediate Advisory Number 35A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 800 AM AST Thu Sep 09 2021 ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON BERMUDA LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.2N 61.5W ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM ESE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.58 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Southeastern Newfoundland from St. Schotts to Pouch Cove A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Southeastern Newfoundland from Lamaline to west of St. Schotts * Southeastern Newfoundland from north of Pouch Cove to Bonavista A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located near latitude 31.2 North, longitude 61.5 West. Larry is moving toward the north-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and a turn toward the north with an increase in forward speed is forecast today, with a faster northeastward motion expected by Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Larry should pass east of Bermuda today, and move near or over southeastern Newfoundland Friday night or early Saturday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, but Larry is expected to remain a hurricane during that time. Larry should become an extratropical cyclone early Saturday, after passing by Newfoundland, then weaken further while it passes southeast of Greenland Sunday night. Larry is expected to be absorbed by a larger extratropical low east of Greenland Monday. Larry is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 220 miles (350 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 968 mb (28.58 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda later today. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area in southeastern Newfoundland Friday night, with tropical storm conditions possible by late Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area in southeastern Newfoundland by late Friday. SURF: Swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Leeward Islands, portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda through the end of the week. Significant swells from Larry will continue affecting the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: Outer rain bands from Hurricane Larry may periodically impact Bermuda Thursday. Significant rainfall totals are currently not expected, however briefly heavy rain rates within these bands may result in an inch or two of rain through Thursday. Heavy rains from Larry will move quickly across eastern Newfoundland Friday night, producing 1 to 2 inches of rain.
T.S. Mindy Update Statement
Tropical Storm Mindy Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132021 500 PM CDT Wed Sep 08 2021 ...NOAA BUOY DATA INDICATES THAT MINDY IS A LITTLE STRONGER... Recent data from NOAA buoy 42036 indicates that the maximum sustained winds in Mindy are now near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. SUMMARY OF 500 PM CDT...2200 UTC...INFORMATION --------------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.2N 86.1W ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM WSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
T.S. Mindy Forms
BULLETIN Tropical Storm Mindy Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132021 400 PM CDT Wed Sep 08 2021 ...NEW TROPICAL STORM FORMS IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.0N 86.3W ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM WSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the coast of the Florida Panhandle from Mexico Beach to Steinhatchee River. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Mexico Beach to Steinhatchee River Florida A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case in the next 6 to 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Mindy was located near latitude 29.0 North, longitude 86.3 West. Mindy is moving toward the northeast near 21 mph (33 km/h) and northeast to east-northeastward motion is expected to continue over the next several days. On the forecast track, the center of Mindy is expected to cross the coastline of the Florida Panhandle later tonight, and then move offshore of the southeastern United States into the western Atlantic Ocean by tomorrow. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before Mindy makes landfall in the Florida Panhandle tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Mindy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages RAINFALL: Mindy is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts of 6 inches across the Florida Panhandle into southern portions of Georgia and South Carolina through Thursday morning. This rainfall may produce isolated to scattered flash, urban, and small stream flooding. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the coast within the warning area later this evening and tonight. TORNADOES: A few isolated tornadoes are possible over portions of the Florida Panhandle this evening into tomorrow morning.
Special Update
Special Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 320 PM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Special outlook issued to update discussion of the disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico. The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Larry, located over the central Atlantic several hundred miles east-southeast of Bermuda. Updated: Satellite and radar data indicate that shower and thunderstorm activity continues to gradually become better organized in association with an area of low pressure located about 115 miles southwest of Apalachicola, Florida. In addition, satellite-derived wind data indicate that the circulation has become somewhat better defined today. If these development trends continue, advisories will likely be initiated on this system as a tropical depression or tropical storm later this afternoon, and tropical storm warnings could be required for portions of the coast of the Florida Panhandle. After reaching the Florida Panhandle tonight, this system is expected to move across the southeastern United States and emerge over the western Atlantic by late Thursday, where environmental conditions appear unfavorable for additional development. Regardless of development, areas of heavy rainfall are likely across portions of the Florida panhandle and southern Georgia through Thursday, with localized flooding possible. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. A tropical wave is expected to emerge off of the western coast of Africa in a few days. Some development of this system is possible thereafter as it moves west-northwestward over the far eastern Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Tropical Outlook
Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 200 PM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Larry, located over the central Atlantic several hundred miles east-southeast of Bermuda. 1. Showers and thunderstorms have become a little better organized today in association with a surface trough and an upper-level disturbance over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. In addition, recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that a broad area of low pressure may be forming. The system is expected to move northeastward through this evening, and a tropical depression could form before it reaches the northeastern Gulf coast tonight or early Thursday. The disturbance is then expected to cross the southeastern United States and emerge over the western Atlantic late this week, where environmental conditions appear unfavorable for additional development. Regardless of development, areas of heavy rainfall are likely across portions of the Florida panhandle and southern Georgia through Thursday, with localized flooding possible. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. 2. A tropical wave is expected to emerge off of the western coast of Africa in a few days. Some development of this system is possible thereafter as it moves west-northwestward over the far eastern Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Larry Advisory # 32A
BULLETIN Hurricane Larry Intermediate Advisory Number 32A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 200 PM AST Wed Sep 08 2021 ...LARRY GETTING CLOSER TO BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.3N 58.9W ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located near latitude 28.3 North, longitude 58.9 West. Larry is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through today. A turn toward the north-northwest and north with an increase in forward speed is forecast on Thursday, with a faster northeastward motion expected by Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Larry should pass east of Bermuda on Thursday, and move near or over southeastern Newfoundland late Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next few days, but Larry is expected to remain a hurricane during that time. Larry is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 966 mb (28.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning tonight or early Thursday. SURF: Swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Leeward Islands, portions of the Greater Antilles, and the Bahamas through midweek, and impact Bermuda through the end of the week. Significant swells from Larry will begin reaching the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada today and continue affecting these shores through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: Outer rain bands from Hurricane Larry may periodically impact Bermuda tonight into Thursday. Significant rainfall totals are currently not expected, however briefly heavy rain rates within these bands may result in an inch or two of rain through Thursday.
Larry Advisory # 31A
BULLETIN Hurricane Larry Intermediate Advisory Number 31A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 800 AM AST Wed Sep 08 2021 ...LARRY CAUSING DANGEROUS SWELLS ON THE WESTERN ATLANTIC COAST THIS WEEK... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.0N 57.7W ABOUT 560 MI...905 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Bermuda. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), Hurricane Larry was located near latitude 27.0 North, longitude 57.7 West. Larry is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through today. A turn toward the north-northwest and north with an increase in forward speed is forecast on Thursday. A faster northeastward motion is expected by Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Larry should pass east of Bermuda on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Larry is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next several days, but Larry is expected to remain a hurricane during that time. Larry is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 966 mb (28.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning tonight or early Thursday. SURF: Swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Leeward Islands, portions of the Greater Antilles, and the Bahamas through midweek, and impact Bermuda through the end of the week. Significant swells from Larry will begin reaching the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada today and continue affecting these shores through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
Larry Advisory # 29A
BULLETIN Hurricane Larry Intermediate Advisory Number 29A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 800 PM AST Tue Sep 07 2021 ...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS LARGE LARRY A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED... ...LIKELY TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS SWELLS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC COAST THIS WEEK... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.4N 56.5W ABOUT 690 MI...1115 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of the large eye of Hurricane Larry was located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 25.4 North, longitude 56.5 West. Larry is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. A turn toward the north-northwest and north with an increase in forward speed is forecast on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Larry should pass east of Bermuda on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Larry is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Slow weakening is forecast during the next several days. Larry is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning late Wednesday or early Thursday. SURF: Swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Lesser Antilles, portions of the Greater Antilles, and the Bahamas through midweek, and impact Bermuda through the end of the week. Significant swells should reach the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada by midweek and continue affecting these shores through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.