Category Archives: Weather

T.S. Nicholas Advisory # 10A

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nicholas Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142021
100 PM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021

...NICHOLAS MOVING SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN 
PORTIONS OF THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
DEEP SOUTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.4N 95.0W
ABOUT 30 MI...55 KM SE OF HOUSTON TEXAS
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM WSW OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued west of High Island 
including Galveston Bay.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* High Island Texas to Sabine Pass

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* High Island Texas to Cameron Louisiana

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Sabine Pass to Cameron Louisiana

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For
a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For
a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicholas was
located near latitude 29.4 North, longitude 95.0 West. Nicholas is
moving toward the east-northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this 
general motion should continue through tonight.  An eastward turn 
is expected over Louisiana by Wednesday.  Little motion is 
anticipated on Thursday.

NOAA Doppler weather radar and surface observations indicate that
maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next
couple of days, and the storm is forecast to become a tropical 
depression by tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km),
mainly over water to the southeast of the center. A TCOON observing
station at Texas Point, Sabine Pass, Texas, recently measured a
1-minute sustained wind of 40 mph (65 km/h) and a gust to 53 mph 
(85 km/h) while a NOAA Ocean Service observing station at Calcasieu 
Pass, Louisiana, recently reported a 1-minute sustained wind of 
39 mph (63 km/h) and a gust to 47 mph (76 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches)
based on nearby surface observations.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nicholas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages

RAINFALL:  Nicholas is expected to produce additional rainfall of
5 to 10 inches from the upper Texas coastal area into central to
southern Louisiana, far southern Mississippi, far southern Alabama
and the western Florida Panhandle through Thursday, with isolated
storm totals of 20 inches across southern Louisiana.
Life-threatening flash flooding impacts, especially in urbanized
metropolitan areas, are possible across these regions.

Widespread minor to isolated major river flooding is expected across
portions of the upper Texas Gulf Coast and southern Louisiana and
Mississippi.

For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with
Hurricane Nicholas see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4
with the WMO header ACUS44KWBC or at the following link
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

High Island, TX to Cameron, LA...2-4 ft
San Luis Pass to High Island, TX...1-3 ft
Galveston Bay...1-3 ft
Cameron, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...1-3 ft
Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas
of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue along the
Louisiana coast into this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions
in the warning area across the upper Texas coast will diminish this
afternoon as Nicholas moves farther to the east.

TORNADOES:  A tornado or two will be possible today into tonight
across southern Louisiana.

SURF:  Swells generated by Nicholas will continue affecting portions
of the northwest Gulf coast today. These swells are likely to cause 
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult 
products from your local weather office.

T.S. Nicholas Advisory # 10

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nicholas Advisory Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142021
1000 AM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021

...NICHOLAS MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
DEEP SOUTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.6N 95.3W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM SE OF HOUSTON TEXAS
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM WSW OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued west of High
Island, Texas.

The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued south of Port
Bolivar, Texas.

The Storm Surge Watch has been discontinued east of Cameron,
Louisiana.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Port Bolivar Texas to Sabine Pass including Galveston Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* High Island Texas to Cameron Louisiana

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Sabine Pass to Cameron Louisiana

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For 
a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather 
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at 
hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons 
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to 
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for 
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other 
instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For 
a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather 
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at 
hurricanes.gov.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicholas was
located near latitude 29.6 North, longitude 95.3 West. Nicholas is
moving toward the northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h) and this general
motion should continue today. The storm should move more slowly
toward the east-northeast by tonight, and then turn eastward on
Wednesday over Louisiana.  Little motion is anticipated on Thursday.

NOAA Doppler weather radar and surface observations indicate that
maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next
couple of days as Nicholas moves farther inland, and the storm is
forecast to become a tropical depression by tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km),
mainly over water to the southeast of the center. A TCOON observing 
station at Texas Point, Sabine Pass, Texas, recently measured a 
1-minute sustained wind of 40 mph (65 km/h) and a gust to 51 mph 
(81 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches)
based on nearby surface observations.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nicholas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages

RAINFALL:  Nicholas is expected to produce additional rainfall of
5 to 10 inches from the upper Texas coastal area into central to
southern Louisiana, far southern Mississippi, far southern Alabama
and the western Florida Panhandle through Thursday, with isolated
storm totals of 20 inches across southern Louisiana.
Life-threatening flash flooding impacts, especially in urbanized
metropolitan areas, are possible across these regions.

Widespread minor to isolated major river flooding is expected across
portions of the upper Texas Gulf Coast and southern Louisiana and
Mississippi.

For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with
Hurricane Nicholas see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 
with the WMO header ACUS44KWBC or at the following link
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Port Bolivar, TX to Cameron, LA including Galveston Bay...2-4 ft
Port Aransas, TX to Port Bolivar, TX...1-3 ft
Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, and Matagorda Bay...1-3 ft
Cameron, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...1-3 ft
Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas
of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue along the 
Louisiana coast into this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions 
in the warning area across the upper Texas coast will diminish this 
afternoon as Nicholas moves farther to the northeast.

TORNADOES:  A tornado or two will be possible today into tonight
across southern Louisiana.

SURF:  Swells generated by Nicholas will continue affecting portions
of the northwest Gulf coast today. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please
consult products from your local weather office.

T.S. Nicholas Advisory # 9A

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nicholas Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142021
700 AM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021

...NICHOLAS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA... 
...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS EXPECTED ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH 
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.5N 95.5W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM SSW OF HOUSTON TEXAS
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM WSW OF BEAUMONT TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of San Luis 
Pass.

The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued south of San Luis 
Pass.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* San Luis Pass to Sabine Pass including Galveston Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Luis Pass Texas to Cameron Louisiana

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Sabine Pass to Rutherford Beach Louisiana

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a
life-threatening situation.  Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of
areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

Interests elsewhere in southwestern Louisiana should monitor the
progress of Nicholas.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicholas was
located near latitude 29.5 North, longitude 95.5 West. Nicholas is
moving toward the north-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h) and that 
general motion should continue this morning. The storm should move 
more slowly to the northeast later today, and then turn eastward by 
Wednesday over Louisiana.  Little motion is anticipated on Thursday.

Data from NOAA Doppler radars indicate that maximum sustained winds 
have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.  Nicholas 
should weaken further today as it moves farther inland, and the 
storm is forecast to become a tropical depression by Wednesday 
morning.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.  During the past couple of hours, a Weatherflow 
station near Galveston Bay, Texas, reported a 1-minute sustained 
wind of 39 mph (63 km/h) and a gust to 52 mph (84 km/h). Farther 
to the east, an observing station at Texas Point recently reported 
a 1-minute sustained wind of 37 mph (60 km/h) and a gust to 45 mph 
(72 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches) 
based on nearby surface observations.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nicholas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages

RAINFALL:  Nicholas is expected to produce additional rainfall of 
5 to 10 inches from the upper Texas coastal area into central to
southern Louisiana, far southern Mississippi and far southern
Alabama, with isolated storm totals of 20 inches across central 
to southern Louisiana. Life-threatening flash flooding impacts,
especially in urbanized metropolitan areas, are possible across
these regions.

Widespread minor to isolated major river flooding is expected across
portions of the upper Texas Gulf Coast and southern Louisiana and
Mississippi.

For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with
Hurricane Nicholas see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with
the WMO header ACUS44KWBC or at the following link
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

San Luis Pass to High Island, TX including Galveston Bay...3-5 ft
High Island, TX to Rutherford Beach, LA...2-4 ft
Port Aransas, TX to San Luis Pass, TX...1-3 ft
Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, and Matagorda Bay...1-3 ft
Rutherford Beach, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...1-3 ft
Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas
of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue within
the warning area across the upper Texas coast through this morning, 
and begin along the Louisiana coast later this morning.

TORNADOES:  A tornado or two will be possible today along the upper 
Texas Coast and southern Louisiana.

SURF:  Swells generated by Nicholas will continue affecting portions
of the northwest Gulf coast today. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please
consult products from your local weather office.

T.S. Nicholas Advisory # 7A

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nicholas Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142021
700 PM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021

...NICHOLAS BRINGING HEAVY RAINS, STRONG WINDS, AND STORM SURGES TO 
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.1N 96.2W
ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM SSW OF MATAGORDA TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Port Aransas Texas to Sabine Pass
* Galveston Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, and Matagorda Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Port Aransas to San Luis Pass Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Baffin Bay to Sabine Pass

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Sabine Pass to Rutherford Beach Louisiana

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at 
hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of
areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in southwestern Louisiana should monitor the
progress of Nicholas.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicholas was
located near latitude 28.1 North, longitude 96.2 West.  Nicholas is 
moving toward the north-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this 
general motion is expected to continue through tonight, followed by 
a turn toward the northeast by late Tuesday.  On the forecast 
track, the center of Nicholas is expected to make landfall along 
the central Texas coast later tonight.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Some additional strengthening is possible during 
the next few hours, and Nicholas could become a hurricane when it 
reaches the Texas coast.  Weakening is anticipated on Tuesday and 
Wednesday while Nicholas moves over land.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.  A WeatherFlow station at Matagorda Bay recently 
reported a sustained wind of 55 mph (89 km/h) with a gust to 71 mph 
(115 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nicholas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages

RAINFALL:  Nicholas is expected to produce storm total rainfall of
6 to 12 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches, across
portions of the middle and upper Texas coastal areas through
Wednesday. Life-threatening flash flooding impacts, especially in
highly urbanized metropolitan areas, are possible across portions of
the upper Texas Gulf Coast and far southwestern Louisiana.

Across interior southeast Texas into southern-central Louisiana and
southern Mississippi, rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with locally
higher amounts near 10 inches are expected through Thursday.  This
rainfall may produce areas of considerable flash and urban
flooding.

The potential for minor to isolated moderate river flooding exists
across the entire region, along with isolated major river flooding,
especially in the smaller river basins and urban areas.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Port O'Connor, TX to San Luis Pass including Matagorda Bay...3-5 ft
San Luis Pass to Rutherford Beach, LA including Galveston
Bay...2-4 ft
Port Aransas, TX to Port O'Connor, TX...2-4 ft
Aransas Bay and San Antonio Bay...2-4 ft
Rutherford Beach, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...1-3 ft
Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake...1-3 ft
Baffin Bay to Port Aransas, TX...1-3 ft
Corpus Christi Bay...1-3 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande to Baffin Bay...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas
of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area across the central and upper Texas coasts through tonight, 
making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.  Hurricane 
conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area as early as this 
evening.

TORNADOES:  A couple of tornadoes will be possible through tonight,
mainly along the upper Texas coast.

SURF:  Swells generated by Nicholas will continue affecting portions
of the northwest Gulf coast through Tuesday. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please
consult products from your local weather office.

T.S. Nicholas Advisory # 7

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nicholas Advisory Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142021
400 PM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021

...NICHOLAS NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL 
TEXAS COAST...
...FLASH FLOODING, STORM SURGE, AND GUSTY WINDS OCCURRING ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.4N 96.4W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM S OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM SSW OF MATAGORDA TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of Baffin 
Bay, Texas. 

The Storm Surge Watch from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas, Texas, 
including Corpus Christi Bay has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Port Aransas Texas to Sabine Pass
* Galveston Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, and Matagorda Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Port Aransas to San Luis Pass Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Baffin Bay to Sabine Pass

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Sabine Pass to Rutherford Beach Louisiana

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of
areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in southwestern Louisiana should monitor the
progress of Nicholas.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicholas was 
located by NOAA Doppler weather radars near latitude 27.4 North, 
longitude 96.4 West.  Nicholas is moving toward the north-northeast 
near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion is expected to 
continue through tonight, followed by a turn toward the northeast by 
late Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Nicholas is 
expected to make landfall along the central Texas coast later 
tonight.

Data from NOAA Doppler weather radars and an earlier reconnaissance 
flight indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 
65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts.  Some additional strengthening 
is forecast this afternoon and evening, and Nicholas could be near 
hurricane strength when it reaches the central Texas coast.  
Weakening is anticipated on Tuesday and Wednesday while Nicholas 
moves over land.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.  During the past couple of hours, NOAA buoy 42019 
located about 75 miles northeast of the center, reported a 
sustained wind of 45 mph (72 km/h) and a gust to 56 mph (91 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nicholas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages

RAINFALL:  Nicholas is expected to produce storm total rainfall of
6 to 12 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches, across
portions of the middle and upper Texas coastal areas through
Wednesday. Life-threatening flash flooding impacts, especially in
highly urbanized metropolitan areas, are possible across portions of
the upper Texas Gulf Coast and far southwestern Louisiana.

Across interior southeast Texas into southern-central Louisiana and
southern Mississippi, rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with locally
higher amounts near 10 inches are expected through Thursday. This
rainfall may produce areas of considerable flash and urban
flooding.

The potential for minor to isolated moderate river flooding exists
across the entire region, along with isolated major river flooding,
especially in the smaller river basins and urban areas.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Port O'Connor, TX to San Luis Pass including Matagorda Bay...3-5 ft
San Luis Pass to Rutherford Beach, LA including Galveston 
Bay...2-4 ft
Port Aransas, TX to Port O'Connor, TX...2-4 ft
Aransas Bay and San Antonio Bay...2-4 ft
Rutherford Beach, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...1-3 ft
Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake...1-3 ft
Baffin Bay to Port Aransas, TX...1-3 ft
Corpus Christi Bay...1-3 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande to Baffin Bay...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas
of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area across central and upper Texas coasts through tonight, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane conditions
are possible in the Hurricane Watch area as early as this evening.

TORNADOES:  A couple of tornadoes will be possible through tonight,
mainly along the upper Texas coast.

SURF:  Swells generated by Nicholas will continue affecting portions
of the northwest Gulf coast through Tuesday. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please
consult products from your local weather office.

T.S. Nicholas Advisory # 6

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nicholas Advisory Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142021
1000 AM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021

...NICHOLAS MOVING ERRATICALLY NORTHWARD JUST OFFSHORE THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF TEXAS...
...FLASH FLOODING, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND MIDDLE TEXAS COASTS TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.4N 96.8W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM NE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM S OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning has been extended from San Luis Pass to 
Sabine Pass including Galveston Bay.

The Hurricane Watch has been extended northeastward to San Luis
Pass, Texas. 

The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended eastward to Sabine 
Pass.

The Storm Surge Watch from the Mouth of the Rio Grande to Baffin 
Bay has been discontinued.

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning from Barra el Mezquital to the U.S./Mexico border.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Port Aransas Texas to Sabine Pass
* Galveston Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, and Matagorda Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Port Aransas to San Luis Pass Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Rio Grande to Sabine Pass

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Baffin Bay to Port Aransas Texas
* Sabine Pass to Rutherford Beach Louisiana
* Corpus Christi Bay

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of
areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in southwestern Louisiana should monitor the
progress of Nicholas.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicholas was 
located by NOAA Doppler weather radars and an Air Force Reserve 
reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 26.4 North, longitude 96.8 
West. Nicholas is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h) and 
this general motion is expected to continue today, followed by a 
turn toward the north-northeast on Tuesday. On the forecast track, 
the center of Nicholas will pass near or just offshore of the 
coast of south Texas this morning and move onshore along the coast 
of south or central Texas late this afternoon or this evening.

Data from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum 
sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast today, and Nicholas could reach the
northwest Gulf coast as a hurricane.  Weakening is anticipated on
Tuesday and Wednesday while Nicholas moves over land.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.  NOAA buoy 42020 located southeast of Corpus 
Christi, Texas, recently reported a sustained wind of 40 mph 
(65 km/h).

The minimum central pressure recently measured by the aircraft is 
1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nicholas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages

RAINFALL:  Nicholas is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 
8 to 16 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches, across 
portions of the middle and upper Texas coastal areas through the 
middle of the week. Life-threatening, flash and urban flooding 
impacts are possible, especially across portions of the upper Texas 
Gulf Coast near Lake Jackson and Freeport, TX

Across the rest of southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana rainfall 
of 5 to 10 inches is expected. This rainfall may produce areas of 
considerable flash and urban flooding, especially in highly 
urbanized metropolitan areas. Additionally, there is the potential 
for isolated minor to moderate river flooding.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the 
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by 
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could 
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated 
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Port O'Connor to San Luis Pass TX including Matagorda Bay...3-5 ft
San Luis Pass, TX to Rutherford Beach, LA including Galveston
Bay...2-4 ft
Baffin Bay to Port O'Connor, TX...2-4 ft
Corpus Christi Bay, Aransas Bay and San Antonio Bay...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande to Baffin Bay...1-3 ft
Rutherford Beach, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...1-3 ft
Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas
of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see

products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning 
area in southern Texas through the next few hours. These conditions 
will spread northward within the warning area through tonight, 
making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane 
conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area as early as this 
afternoon or this evening. 

TORNADOES:  A couple of tornadoes are possible this afternoon and 
tonight across the middle and upper Texas coast.

SURF:  Swells generated by Nicholas will continue affecting
portions of the northwest Gulf coast through Tuesday. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.

T.S. Nicholas Advisory # 5A

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nicholas Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142021
700 AM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021

...NICHOLAS MOVING ERRATICALLY JUST OFFSHORE THE NORTHEASTERN 
COAST OF MEXICO...
...FLASH FLOODING, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED 
ALONG THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.4N 96.9W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SSE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM S OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Port Aransas to San Luis Pass Texas
* Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, and Matagorda Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Port Aransas to Freeport Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Rio Grande to High Island Texas
* Barra el Mezquital to the U.S./Mexico border

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Aransas Texas
* San Luis Pass Texas to Rutherford Beach Louisiana, including
Galveston Bay
* Baffin Bay and Corpus Christi Bay

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of High Island Texas to Sabine Pass

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of
areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere along the upper Texas coast and southwestern
Louisiana should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicholas was
located near latitude 25.4 North, longitude 96.9 West. Nicholas has
been drifting toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). The 
storm should move northward later today at a faster forward speed, 
and turn north-northeastward on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the 
center of Nicholas will pass near or just offshore the coasts of 
northeastern Mexico and south Texas this morning, and move onshore 
along the coast of south or central Texas late this afternoon or 
evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher 
gusts. Strengthening is forecast today, and Nicholas could reach the
northwest Gulf coast as a hurricane.  Weakening is anticipated on
Tuesday and Wednesday while Nicholas moves over land.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center. A Weatherflow station on South Padre Island, 
Texas, recently reported a wind gust to 45 mph (72 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nicholas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages

RAINFALL:  Nicholas is expected to produce storm total rainfall of
8 to 16 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches, across
portions of the middle and upper Texas coastal areas through the
middle of the week. Across the rest of coastal Texas into southwest
Louisiana rainfall of 5 to 10 inches is expected. This rainfall may
produce areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, especially
in highly urbanized metropolitan areas. Additionally, there is the
potential for isolated minor to moderate river flooding.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide
will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Port O'Connor to San Luis Pass TX including Matagorda Bay... 3-5 ft
San Luis Pass, TX to Rutherford Beach, LA including Galveston
Bay...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port O'Connor, TX...2-4 ft
Baffin Bay, Corpus Christi Bay, Aransas Bay and San Antonio
Bay...2-4 ft
Rutherford Beach, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...1-3 ft
Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas
of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area in northeastern Mexico and southern
Texas this morning, making outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.  These conditions will spread northward within the
warning area through tonight.  Hurricane conditions are possible in
the Hurricane Watch area as early as this afternoon.  Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area by tonight or early
Tuesday.

TORNADOES:  A tornado or two will be possible today into tonight
across the Texas coast.

SURF:  Swells generated by Nicholas will continue affecting
portions of the northwest Gulf coast through Tuesday. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.

T.S. Nicholas Advisory #3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nicholas Advisory Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142021
1000 PM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021

...WATCHES AND WARNINGS EXTENDED NORTHEASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 95.5W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM SSE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Watch has been extended eastward to Freeport Texas.

The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended eastward to High
Island Texas.

The Tropical Storm Watch has been extended eastward to Sabine Pass.

The Storm Surge Watch has been extended eastward to Rutherford
Beach Louisiana.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Port Aransas to San Luis Pass Texas
* Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, and Matagorda Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Port Aransas to Freeport Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Rio Grande to High Island Texas
* Barra el Mezquital to the U.S./Mexico border

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Aransas Texas
* San Luis Pass Texas to Rutherford Beach Louisiana, including
Galveston Bay
* Baffin Bay and Corpus Christi Bay

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of High Island Texas to Sabine Pass

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of
areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the upper Texas coast and southwestern
Louisiana should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicholas was 
located near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 95.5 West.  Nicholas has 
been meandering or drifting northward near 2 mph (4 km/h) over the 
past couple of hours, but a north-northwestward motion near 12 mph 
(19 km/h) is expected to resume by early Monday. A northward or 
north-northeastward motion is forecast by late Monday or Monday 
night.  On the forecast track, the center of Nicholas will pass near 
or just offshore the coasts of northeastern Mexico and South Texas 
on Monday, and move onshore along the coast of south or central 
Texas coast Monday night or early Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast until Nicholas reaches the northwest Gulf
coast Monday night or early Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nicholas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages

RAINFALL:  Nicholas is expected to produce storm total rainfall of
8 to 16 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches, across
portions of the middle and upper Texas coastal areas tonight through
the middle of the week.  Across the rest of coastal Texas into
southwest Louisiana rainfall of 5 to 10 inches is expected.  This
rainfall may produce areas of considerable flash and urban flooding,
especially in highly urbanized metropolitan areas.  Additionally,
there is the potential for isolated minor to moderate river
flooding.


Over the northeastern portions of the Mexican state of Tamaulipas,
rainfall amounts of 2 to 5 inches can be expected tonight into
Monday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide
will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Port O'Connor to San Luis Pass TX including Matagorda Bay... 3-5 ft
San Luis Pass, TX to Rutherford Beach, LA including Galveston
Bay...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port O'Connor, TX...2-4 ft
Baffin Bay, Corpus Christi Bay, Aransas Bay and San Antonio
Bay...2-4 ft
Rutherford Beach, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...1-3 ft
Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas
of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area in northeastern Mexico and southern
Texas Monday morning, making outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.  These conditions will spread northward within the
warning area through Monday night.  Hurricane conditions are
possible in the Hurricane Watch area Monday night.  Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area by late Monday night
or early Tuesday.

TORNADOES:  A tornado or two will be possible Monday into Monday
night across the middle and lower Texas coast.

SURF:  Swells generated by Nicholas will begin affecting portions
of the northwest Gulf coast tonight and continue into Tuesday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Please consult products from your local
weather office.

T.S. Nicholas Advisory # 2A

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nicholas Intermediate Advisory Number 2A...corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142021
700 PM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021

Corrected Tropical Storm Watch area

...NICHOLAS MOVING LITTLE AT THIS TIME...
...EXPECTED TO HEAD FOR THE TEXAS COAST LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 95.5W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM SSE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Port Aransas to San Luis Pass Texas
* Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, and Matagorda Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Port Aransas to Sargent Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Rio Grande to Freeport Texas
* Barra el Mezquital to the U.S./Mexico border

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Rio Grande to High Island Texas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Freeport to High Island Texas

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of
areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the upper Texas coast should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicholas was
located near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 95.5 West.  Nicholas 
has been meandering or drifting northward near 2 mph (4 km/h) over 
the past couple of hours, but a north-northwestward motion near 12 
mph (19 km/h) is expected to resume later tonight and early monday.  
A northward or north-northeastward motion is forecast by late 
Monday or Monday night.  On the forecast track, the center of 
Nicholas will pass near or just offshore the coasts of northeastern 
Mexico and South Texas on Monday, and move onshore along the coast 
of south or central Texas coast Monday night or early Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Strengthening is forecast until Nicholas reaches the
northwest Gulf coast Monday night or early Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nicholas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages

RAINFALL:  Nicholas is expected to produce storm total rainfall of
8 to 16 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches, across
portions of the middle and upper Texas coastal areas tonight through
the middle of the week. Across the rest of coastal Texas into
southwest Louisiana rainfall of 5 to 10 inches is expected. This
rainfall may produce areas of considerable flash and urban flooding,
especially in highly urbanized metropolitan areas. Additionally,
there is the potential for isolated minor to moderate river
flooding.

Over the northeastern portions of the Mexican state of Tamaulipas
rainfall amounts of 2 to 5 inches can be expected tonight into 
Monday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide
will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Port O'Connor to San Luis Pass TX including Matagorda Bay...3-5 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port O'Connor, TX...2-4 ft
San Luis Pass to High Island, TX including Galveston Bay...2-4 ft
Baffin Bay, Corpus Christi Bay, Aransas Bay and San Antonio
Bay...2-4 ft
High Island, TX to Intracoastal City including Sabine Lake and
Calcasieu Lake..1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas
of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area in northeastern Mexico and southern
Texas Monday morning, making outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.  These conditions will spread northward within the
warning area through Monday night.  Hurricane conditions are
possible in the Hurricane Watch area Monday night.  Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area by late Monday night
or early Tuesday.

TORNADOES:  A tornado or two will be possible Monday into Monday
night across the middle and lower Texas coast.

SURF:  Swells generated by Nicholas will begin affecting portions 
of the northwest Gulf coast tonight and continue into Tuesday.  
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip 
current conditions.  Please consult products from your local 
weather office.

T.S. Nicholas Advisory # 2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nicholas Advisory Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142021
400 PM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021

...NICHOLAS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
GULF COAST...
...STORM SURGE WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF
THE TEXAS COAST...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.8N 95.5W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SSE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended eastward to Freeport, 
Texas.

A Storm Surge Warning has been issued for the coast of Texas from
Port Aransas to San Luis Pass, including Aransas Bay, San Antonio 
Bay, and Matagorda Bay.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the coast of Texas from Port
Aransas to Sargent.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Port Aransas to San Luis Pass Texas
* Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, and Matagorda Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Port Aransas to Sargent Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Rio Grande to Freeport Texas
* Barra el Mezquital to the U.S./Mexico border

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Rio Grande to High Island Texas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Port Aransas to High Island Texas

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. 

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of
areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible 
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours before 
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, 
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the upper Texas coast should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicholas was
located near latitude 22.8 North, longitude 95.5 West. Nicholas is
moving toward the north-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this 
general motion is expected through tonight.  A slower northward or
north-northeastward motion is forecast by late Monday or Monday
night.  On the forecast track, the center of Nicholas will pass near
or just offshore the coasts of northeastern Mexico and South Texas
on Monday, and move onshore along the coast of south or central 
Texas coast Monday night or early Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast until Nicholas reaches the northwest Gulf 
coast Monday night or early Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nicholas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages

RAINFALL:  Nicholas is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 
8 to 16 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches, across 
portions of the middle and upper Texas coastal areas today through 
the middle of the week. Across the rest of coastal Texas into 
southwest Louisiana rainfall of 5 to 10 inches is expected. This 
rainfall may produce areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, 
especially in highly urbanized metropolitan areas. Additionally, 
there is the potential for isolated minor to moderate river 
flooding.

Over the northeastern portions of the Mexican state of Tamaulipas 
rainfall amounts of 2 to 5 inches can be expected today into Monday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide
will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Port O'Connor to San Luis Pass TX including Matagorda Bay...3-5 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port O'Connor, TX...2-4 ft
San Luis Pass to High Island, TX including Galveston Bay...2-4ft
Baffin Bay, Corpus Christi Bay, Aransas Bay and San Antonio 
Bay...2-4 ft
High Island, TX to Intracoastal City including Sabine Lake and 
Calcasieu Lake..1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas
of onshore flow, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area in northeastern Mexico and southern
Texas Monday morning, making outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. These conditions will spread northward within the 
warning area through Monday night. Hurricane conditions are 
possible in the Hurricane Watch area Monday night. Tropical storm 
conditions are possible within the watch area by late Monday night 
or early Tuesday.

TORNADOES:  A tornado or two will be possible Monday into Monday 
night across the middle and lower Texas coast.

SURF:  Swells generated by Nicholas will begin affecting 
portions of the northwest Gulf coast later tonight and continue 
into Tuesday.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening 
surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your 
local weather office.