BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Special Advisory Number  26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052021
200 PM EDT Tue Jul 06 2021

...ELSA NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE FLORIDA GULF
COAST...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.4N 83.0W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM NW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
ABOUT 180 MI...295 KM S OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Warning has been issued along the west coast of Florida
from Egmont Key to the Steinhatchee River.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to the Aucilla
River, including Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Egmont Key to the Steinhatchee River, Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas
* West coast of Florida from Flamingo to south of Egmont Key
* West coast of Florida north of Steinhatchee River to Ochlockonee
River

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* West of the Aucilla River to the Ochlockonee River, Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of St. Marys River to South Santee River, South Carolina

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning
Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening
situation.  Persons located within these areas should take all
necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water
and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow
evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
hours.  Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at
risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic coast
should monitor the progress of Elsa.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located near latitude 25.4 North, longitude 83.0 West.  Elsa is
moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h) and a generally
northward motion is expected today and tonight.  A turn toward the
north-northeast is expected on Wednesday, followed by a faster
northeastward motion by late Thursday.  On the forecast track, Elsa
will move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida later
today through tonight.  Elsa is forecast to make landfall along the 
north Florida Gulf coast on Wednesday and then move across the 
southeastern United States through Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts, and Elsa is forecast to become a hurricane 
before making landfall.  Weakening is forecast to begin after Elsa 
moves inland by late Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane 
Hunter aircraft is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane
Warning area on the Florida Gulf coast beginning this evening.
Tropical storm conditions will continue over portions of the
warning area in the Florida Keys through this evening.  Tropical
storm conditions are expected to spread northward into west-central
Florida and the Florida Big Bend region in the Tropical Storm
Warning area tonight and early Wednesday.  Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area in Georgia and South
Carolina Wednesday night and early Thursday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Englewood, FL to Aucilla River including Tampa Bay...3 to 5 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Englewood, FL including Charlotte Harbor...2 to
4 ft
Aucilla River to Ochlockonee River...2 to 4 ft
Flamingo, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...1 to 3 ft
Craig Key, FL to Dry Tortugas...1 to 2 ft
Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass...1 to 2 ft
Mouth of St. Marys River to South Santee River, SC...1 to 2 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Across portions of Cuba through tonight, rainfall of 5 to
10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected.
This will result in significant flash flooding and mudslides.

Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts and
impacts this week:

Across the Florida Keys into southwest and western portions of the
Florida Peninsula...3 to 5 inches with localized maximum totals up
to 8 inches through Wednesday, which may result in considerable
flash and urban flooding, along with minor to isolated moderate
river flooding.

Across the rest of Florida...2 to 4 inches with localized maximum
totals up to 6 inches through Wednesday night, which may result in
isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding.

Across portions of southeast Georgia and the Lowcountry of South
Carolina, 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals up to 8 inches
will be possible, which may result in considerable flash and urban
flooding.

Across coastal portions of North Carolina into southeastern
Virginia...1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches
Wednesday night through Thursday night, which could lead to isolated
flash and urban flooding..

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today through tonight across
the Florida Peninsula. The tornado threat will continue on Wednesday
across north Florida, southeast Georgia, and the Lowcountry of
South Carolina. The tornado threat should shift to the eastern
Carolinas and far southeast Virginia on Thursday.

SURF: Swells will spread northward across portions of the Florida
Keys and the west coast of Florida through early Wednesday.  These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office
for more details.

Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number  25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052021
1100 AM EDT Tue Jul 06 2021

...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE FLORIDA 
KEYS...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES OVER WEST-CENTRAL 
CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.9N 82.8W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM WNW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM S OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Cuba has discontinued all warnings for Cuba.

The Tropical Storm Watch along the coast of the Florida panhandle
from Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass, Florida, has been
discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to the Aucilla
River, including Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas
* West coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to Ochlockonee River

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Egmont Key to the Steinhatchee River, Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* West of the Aucilla River to the Ochlockonee River, Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of St. Marys River to South Santee River, South Carolina

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning
Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening
situation.  Persons located within these areas should take all
necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water
and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow
evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at
risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic coast
should monitor the progress of Elsa.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located near latitude 24.9 North, longitude 82.8 West.  Elsa is
moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and  a 
generally northward motion is expected today and tonight.  A turn
toward the north-northeast is expected on Wednesday, followed by a 
faster northeastward by late Thursday.  On the forecast track, Elsa 
will continue to pass near the Florida Keys this morning, and move 
near or over portions of the west coast of Florida later today 
through tonight.  On Wednesday morning, Elsa is forecast to make 
landfall along the north Florida Gulf coast and then move 
across the southeastern United States through Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow strengthening is forecast through tonight, and Elsa could be
near hurricane strength before it makes landfall in Florida.
Weakening is expected after Elsa moves inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) 
from the center. A C-MAN station at Sand Key, Florida, recently 
measured a peak 1-minute sustained wind of 56 mph (90 km/h) gusting 
to 64 mph (104 km/h).  The Key West International Airport also 
recently measured a peak sustained wind of 43 mph (69 km/h) gusting 
to 59 mph (95 km/h). 

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue over portions of the 
warning area in the Florida Keys through this evening.  Tropical 
storm conditions are expected to spread northward into west-central 
Florida and the Florida Big Bend region tonight and early Wednesday, 
where hurricane conditions are possible.  Tropical storm conditions 
are possible in the watch area in Georgia and South Carolina 
Wednesday night and early Thursday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will 
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising 
waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the 
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if 
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Englewood, FL to Aucilla River including Tampa Bay...3 to 5 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Englewood, FL including Charlotte Harbor...2 to
4 ft
Aucilla River to Ochlockonee River...2 to 4 ft
Flamingo, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...1 to 3 ft
Craig Key, FL to Dry Tortugas...1 to 2 ft
Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass...1 to 2 ft
Mouth of St. Marys River to South Santee River, SC...1 to 2 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Across portions of Cuba through tonight, rainfall of 5 to 
10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected. 
This will result in significant flash flooding and mudslides. 

Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts and 
impacts this week:

Across the Florida Keys into southwest and western portions of the 
Florida Peninsula...3 to 5 inches with localized maximum totals up 
to 8 inches through Wednesday, which may result in considerable 
flash and urban flooding, along with minor to isolated moderate 
river flooding. 

Across the rest of Florida...2 to 4 inches with localized maximum 
totals up to 6 inches through Wednesday night, which may result in 
isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding.

Across portions of southeast Georgia and the Lowcountry of South 
Carolina, 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals up to 8 inches 
will be possible, which may result in considerable flash and urban 
flooding.

Across coastal portions of North Carolina into southeastern 
Virginia...1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches 
Wednesday night through Thursday night, which could lead to isolated 
flash and urban flooding..

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today through tonight across
the Florida Peninsula. The tornado threat will continue on Wednesday
across north Florida, southeast Georgia, and the Lowcountry of
South Carolina. The tornado threat should shift to the eastern
Carolinas and far southeast Virginia on Thursday.

SURF: Swells will spread northward across portions of the Florida
Keys and the west coast of Florida through early Wednesday.  These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office
for more details.

Tropical Storm Elsa Local Statement Advisory Number 24
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL  AL052021
509 AM EDT Tue Jul 6 2021

This product covers Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia

**TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT ACROSS INTERSTATE 75
CORRIDOR AND COASTAL SOUTHEAST GEORGIA**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Baker, Bradford,
      Coastal Camden, Coastal Glynn, and Union
    - The Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm
      Warning for Central Marion, Gilchrist, Suwannee, Western
      Alachua, and Western Marion

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Central Marion,
      Gilchrist, Suwannee, Western Alachua, and Western Marion
    - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Baker, Bradford,
      Coastal Camden, Coastal Glynn, Eastern Alachua, Eastern Marion,
      Echols, Hamilton, Northern Columbia, Southern Columbia, and
      Union

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 440 miles south of Jacksonville FL
    - 24.1N 82.4W
    - Storm Intensity 60 mph
    - Movement North-northwest or 340 degrees at 12 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Tropical Storm Elsa is forecast to track northward toward the west
coast of the Florida peninsula today and move into the northern
portions of the peninsula late tonight into Wednesday, weaken, and
then move northeastward through southeast Georgia Wednesday. Some
of Elsa impacts will begin to affect the region as early as this
afternoon and evening with rainbands moving up from the south. Gusty
winds of 40 to 50 mph will be possible ahead of Elsa in the showers
and thunderstorms today. Sustained tropical storm force winds will
arrive later tonight into early Wednesday morning for counties along
and west of Interstate 75. Heavy rainfall and saturated grounds will
enhance the flood risk over inland areas of northeast Florida and southeast
Georgia. Rainfall amounts near 2 to 4 inches with higher amounts to
6 inches are possible. An isolated tornado will be possible over
portions of northeast Florida tonight into Wednesday.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible
extensive impacts across northeast Florida and southeast Georgia. Potential
impacts include:
    - Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in
      multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may
      become dangerous rivers. Flood control systems and barriers may
      become stressed.
    - Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple
      communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed
      away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes.
      Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with
      underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous.
      Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out.

Protect against dangerous rainfall flooding having possible limited
to significant impacts across northeast Florida and southeast Georgia.

* WIND:
Protect against dangerous wind having possible significant impacts
across inland northeast Florida and southeast Georgia near the
Interstate 75 corridor and along the southeast Georgia coast. Potential
impacts in this area include:
    - Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage
      to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings
      experiencing window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile
      homes damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight
      objects become dangerous projectiles.
    - Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater
      numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several
      fences and roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways, and access
      routes impassable.
    - Scattered power and communications outages, but more prevalent
      in areas with above ground lines.

Also, protect against hazardous wind having possible limited impacts
across the rest of northeast Florida and rest of inland southeast Georgia.

* TORNADOES:
Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts
across Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia. Potential impacts
include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
      pulled from moorings.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to check your emergency plan and emergency supplies
kit and take necessary actions to protect your family and secure your
home or business.

When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the
exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging
wind gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes extend well away from the
center of the storm.

If you live in a place particularly vulnerable to flooding, such as
near the ocean or a large inland lake, in a low-lying or poor
drainage area, in a valley, or near an already swollen river, plan to
move to safe shelter on higher ground.

When securing your property, outside preparations should be concluded
as soon as possible before conditions deteriorate. The onset of
strong gusty winds or flooding can cause certain preparedness
activities to become unsafe.

Check on those who may not be fully aware of the situation or who are
unable to make personal preparations.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather Radio and local news
outlets for official storm information. Listen for possible changes
to the forecast.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Jacksonville FL around 11 AM, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 24A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052021
800 AM EDT Tue Jul 06 2021

...ELSA JUST WEST OF KEY WEST...
...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.5N 82.6W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM W OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM S OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to the Aucilla
River, including Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, Havana, and Artemisa
* The Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas
* West coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to Ochlockonee River

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Egmont Key to the Steinhatchee River, Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* West of the Aucilla River to the Ochlockonee River, Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of the Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass, Florida
* Mouth of St. Marys River to South Santee River, South Carolina

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a
life-threatening situation.  Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic coast
should monitor the progress of Elsa.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was 
located near latitude 24.5 North, longitude 82.6 West. Elsa is 
moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this 
general motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn 
toward the north by tonight.  A north-northeastward motion is 
expected on Wednesday.  On the forecast track, Elsa will continue to 
pass near the Florida Keys this morning, and move near or over 
portions of the west coast of Florida later today through tonight. 
On Wednesday morning, Elsa is forecast to make landfall along the 
north Florida Gulf coast and then move northeastward across the 
southeastern United States through Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast through tonight, and Elsa
could be near hurricane strength before it makes landfall in
Florida.  Weakening is expected after Elsa moves inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.  A C-MAN station at Sand Key, Florida, recently
measured a wind gust of 52 mph (83 km/h). The Key West 
International Airport also recently measured a wind gust of 48 mph 
(77 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions should continue over portions of
central and western Cuba during the next several hours.  Tropical
storm conditions are beginning in the warning area in the Florida
Keys and are expected along the Florida west coast later today.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward into
west-central Florida and the Florida Big Bend region tonight and
early Wednesday, where hurricane conditions are possible. Tropical
storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Florida beginning
late tonight and in Georgia and South Carolina Wednesday night and
early Thursday.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal
tide levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore
winds within the Tropical Storm Warning areas...

Southern coast of Cuba...2 to 4 ft

The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally
dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving
inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the following
heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Englewood, FL to Aucilla River including Tampa Bay...3 to 5 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Englewood, FL including Charlotte Harbor...2 to
4 ft
Aucilla River to Ochlockonee River...2 to 4 ft
Flamingo, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...1 to 3 ft
Craig Key, FL to Dry Tortugas...1 to 2 ft
Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass...1 to 2 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Across portions of Cuba through tonight, rainfall of 5 to
10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected.
This will result in significant flash flooding and mudslides.

Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts and
impacts this week:

Across the Florida Keys into southwest and western portions of the
Florida Peninsula...3 to 5 inches with localized maximum totals up
to 8 inches through Wednesday, which may result in considerable
flash and urban flooding, along with minor to isolated moderate
river flooding.

Across the rest of Florida...2 to 4 inches with localized maximum
totals up to 6 inches through Wednesday night, which may result in
isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding.

Across portions of southeast Georgia and the Lowcountry of South
Carolina, 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals up to 8 inches
will be possible, which may result in considerable flash and urban
flooding.

Across coastal portions of North Carolina into southeastern
Virginia...1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches
Wednesday night through Thursday night, which could lead to isolated
flash and urban flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today through tonight across
the Florida Peninsula. The tornado threat will continue on Wednesday
across north Florida, southeast Georgia, and the Lowcountry of 
South Carolina. The tornado threat should shift to the eastern 
Carolinas and far southeast Virginia on Thursday.

SURF: Swells will spread northward across portions of the Florida
Keys and the west coast of Florida through early Wednesday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office
for more details.

Tropical Storm Watch
Beginning: 2021-07-05T21:10:00
Ending:
Extension in Area
WESTERN ALACHUA- 510 PM EDT MON JUL 5 2021
…TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT…
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE SOMEWHERE WITHIN THIS AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS
* LOCATIONS AFFECTED – HIGH SPRINGS – NEWBERRY – ARCHER
* WIND – LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND – PEAK WIND FORECAST: 25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH
– THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: POTENTIAL FOR WIND 58 TO 73 MPH – THE WIND THREAT HAS REMAINED NEARLY STEADY FROM THE PREVIOUS ASSESSMENT. – PLAN: PLAN FOR DANGEROUS WIND OF EQUIVALENT STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE. – PREPARE: REMAINING EFFORTS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETED AS SOON AS POSSIBLE. PREPARE FOR SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE. – ACT: MOVE TO SAFE SHELTER BEFORE THE WIND BECOMES HAZARDOUS.
– POTENTIAL IMPACTS: SIGNIFICANT – SOME DAMAGE TO ROOFING AND SIDING MATERIALS, ALONG WITH DAMAGE TO PORCHES, AWNINGS, CARPORTS, AND SHEDS. A FEW BUILDINGS EXPERIENCING WINDOW, DOOR, AND GARAGE DOOR FAILURES. MOBILE HOMES DAMAGED, ESPECIALLY IF UNANCHORED. UNSECURED LIGHTWEIGHT OBJECTS BECOME DANGEROUS PROJECTILES. – SEVERAL LARGE TREES SNAPPED OR UPROOTED, BUT WITH GREATER NUMBERS IN PLACES WHERE TREES ARE SHALLOW ROOTED. SEVERAL FENCES AND ROADWAY SIGNS BLOWN OVER. – SOME ROADS IMPASSABLE FROM LARGE DEBRIS, AND MORE WITHIN URBAN OR HEAVILY WOODED PLACES. A FEW BRIDGES, CAUSEWAYS, AND ACCESS ROUTES IMPASSABLE. – SCATTERED POWER AND COMMUNICATIONS OUTAGES, BUT MORE PREVALENT IN AREAS WITH ABOVE GROUND LINES.
* FLOODING RAIN – LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: – PEAK RAINFALL AMOUNTS: ADDITIONAL 2-4 INCHES, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS

– THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE FLOODING RAIN – THE FLOODING RAIN THREAT HAS REMAINED NEARLY STEADY FROM THE PREVIOUS ASSESSMENT. – PLAN: EMERGENCY PLANS SHOULD INCLUDE THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAIN. EVACUATIONS AND RESCUES ARE POSSIBLE. – PREPARE: CONSIDER PROTECTIVE ACTIONS IF YOU ARE IN AN AREA VULNERABLE TO FLOODING. – ACT: HEED ANY FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS. FAILURE TO TAKE ACTION MAY RESULT IN SERIOUS INJURY OR LOSS OF LIFE.
– POTENTIAL IMPACTS: SIGNIFICANT – MODERATE RAINFALL FLOODING MAY PROMPT SEVERAL EVACUATIONS AND RESCUES. – RIVERS AND TRIBUTARIES MAY QUICKLY BECOME SWOLLEN WITH SWIFTER CURRENTS AND OVERSPILL THEIR BANKS IN A FEW PLACES, ESPECIALLY IN USUALLY VULNERABLE SPOTS. SMALL STREAMS, CREEKS, CANALS, AND DITCHES OVERFLOW. – FLOOD WATERS CAN ENTER SOME STRUCTURES OR WEAKEN FOUNDATIONS. SEVERAL PLACES MAY EXPERIENCE EXPANDED AREAS OF RAPID INUNDATION AT UNDERPASSES, LOW-LYING SPOTS, AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. SOME STREETS AND PARKING LOTS TAKE ON MOVING WATER AS STORM DRAINS AND RETENTION PONDS OVERFLOW. DRIVING CONDITIONS BECOME HAZARDOUS. SOME ROAD AND BRIDGE CLOSURES.
* TORNADO – LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: – SITUATION IS FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES
– THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL TORNADOES – THE TORNADO THREAT HAS REMAINED NEARLY STEADY FROM THE PREVIOUS ASSESSMENT. – PLAN: EMERGENCY PLANS SHOULD INCLUDE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL TORNADOES WITH A FEW POSSIBLY INTENSE HAVING LARGER DAMAGE PATHS. – PREPARE: THOSE LIVING IN MANUFACTURED HOMES OR ON BOATS ARE URGED TO RELOCATE TO SAFE SHELTER BEFORE HAZARDOUS WEATHER ARRIVES. – ACT: LISTEN FOR TORNADO WATCHES AND WARNINGS. IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED, BE READY TO SHELTER QUICKLY.
– POTENTIAL IMPACTS: SIGNIFICANT – THE OCCURRENCE OF SCATTERED TORNADOES CAN HINDER THE EXECUTION OF EMERGENCY PLANS DURING TROPICAL EVENTS. – SEVERAL PLACES MAY EXPERIENCE TORNADO DAMAGE WITH A FEW SPOTS OF CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE, POWER LOSS, AND COMMUNICATIONS FAILURES. – LOCATIONS COULD REALIZE ROOFS TORN OFF FRAME HOUSES, MOBILE HOMES DEMOLISHED, BOXCARS OVERTURNED, LARGE TREES SNAPPED OR UPROOTED, VEHICLES TUMBLED, AND SMALL BOATS TOSSED ABOUT. DANGEROUS PROJECTILES CAN ADD TO THE TOLL.

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 22A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052021
800 PM EDT Mon Jul 05 2021

...ELSA PASSING JUST EAST OF HAVANA CUBA WITH HEAVY RAINS...
...EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS ON TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.9N 81.9W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM E OF HAVANA CUBA
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM S OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to the Aucilla River
including Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Villa Clara,
Mayabeque, Havana, and Artemisa
* The Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas
* West coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to Ochlockonee River

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* West of the Aucilla River to the Ochlockonee River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of the Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass, Florida

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening 
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, 
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction 
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm 
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a 
life-threatening situation.  Persons located within these areas 
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from 
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.  
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local 
officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests in coastal Georgia and the Carolinas should monitor the
progress of Elsa.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States, 
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor 
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast 
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the 
United States, please monitor products issued by your national 
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was 
located by radars from Key West, Florida, and Havana, Cuba, near 
latitude 22.9 North, longitude 81.9 West.  Elsa is moving toward the 
northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected 
to continue tonight, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest 
on Tuesday, and a turn toward the north on Tuesday night.  A 
north-northeastward motion is expected on Wednesday.  On the 
forecast track, Elsa should emerge off the coast western Cuba during 
the next hour or so, move into the Florida Straits this evening, and 
pass near the Florida Keys early Tuesday. Elsa is then forecast to 
move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida by late 
Tuesday and continuing into Wednesday.

Data from the NOAA Doppler weather radar in Key West indicate that 
maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts 
over water. Some restrengthening is forecast after Elsa moves over 
the Straits of Florida tonight and over the Gulf of Mexico on 
Tuesday. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is en route 
to investigate Elsa once the storm moves back over water.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km), 
mainly north through northeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions should continue over portions of
central and western Cuba for the next several hours.  Tropical
storm conditions are expected in the warning area in the Florida
Keys beginning tonight and along the Florida west coast beginning
Tuesday.  Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread
northward into the Florida Big Bend region within the Tropical
Storm Warning area Tuesday night and early Wednesday.  Tropical
storm conditions are possible in the watch area beginning
late Tuesday night.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal
tide levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore
winds within the Tropical Storm Warning areas...

Southern coast of Cuba...2 to 4 ft

The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally
dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving
inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the following
heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Englewood, FL to Aucilla River including Tampa Bay...3 to 5 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Englewood, FL including Charlotte Harbor...2 to
4 ft
Aucilla River to Ochlockonee River...2 to 4 ft
Flamingo, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...1 to 3 ft
Craig Key, FL to Dry Tortugas...1 to 2 ft
Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass...1 to 2 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Across portions of Cuba tonight, rainfall of 5 to 10
inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected.
This will result in significant flash flooding and mudslides.
Across the Cayman Islands tonight, rainfall of 3 to 5 inches is
expected. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding.

Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts and
impacts this week:

Across the Keys into southwest and western portions of the Florida
Peninsula...3 to 5 inches with localized maximum totals up to 8
inches through Wednesday, which may result in considerable flash 
and urban flooding, along with minor to isolated moderate river
flooding.

Across the rest of Florida into southeast Georgia and the Low
Country of South Carolina...2 to 4 inches with localized maximum
totals up to 6 inches through Wednesday night, which may result in
isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding.

Across coastal portions of North Carolina into southeastern
Virginia...1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches
Wednesday night through Thursday night, which could lead to isolated
flash and urban flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible across south Florida tonight
and across the Florida Peninsula on Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward along the
southern coast of Cuba tonight.  Swells will increase near the
Florida Keys and south Florida tonight and spread northward
along the west coast of Florida tonight through Tuesday night.
Please consult products from your local weather office for more
details.