BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062021
800 AM AST Tue Aug 10 2021

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ENROUTE TO THE DISTURBANCE...
...LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 63.1W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM W OF GUADELOUPE
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM ESE OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Meteorological Service of Barbados has discontinued the 
Tropical Storm Watch for Dominica.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, including Culebra and Vieques
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Dominican Republic on the south coast from Punta Palenque
eastward and on the north coast from Cabo Frances Viejo eastward

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Martinique and Guadeloupe
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* Dominican Republic on the north coast from Cabo Frances Viejo to
the Dominican Republic/Haiti border
* Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to
Gonaives
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeastern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
16.0 North, longitude 63.1 West.  The system is moving toward the
west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this general motion is
expected to continue during the next few days.  On the forecast
track, the disturbance is expected to pass near or over the U.S.
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico late today and tonight, and be near
or over Hispaniola on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next day or so
and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm later
this morning.  Some weakening is likely while the system interacts
with Hispaniola on Wednesday.  A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 
currently enroute to investigate the disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours... high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Six can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1,
WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce the
following rainfall amounts:

Over the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico...2 to 4
inches, with isolated amounts of 6 inches.  Heavy rainfall could
lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding and potential
mudslides across the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

Over the northern Windward Islands...1 to 3 inches.

Over the Dominican Republic...3 to 6 inches.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
in the Lesser Antilles for the next few hours.  Tropical storm
conditions are expected in the warning areas in the U.S. Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico later today, and in the Dominican Republic
by early Wednesday.  Tropical storm conditions are possible
elsewhere along the northern coasts of the Dominican Republic,
northern Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern Bahamas
beginning late Wednesday.

SURF:  Swells generated by the disturbance are affecting portions of
the Leeward Islands.  These swells are expected to spread across the
U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today and across portions of
Hispaniola on Wednesday, and they could cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your local
weather office.

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062021
500 PM AST Mon Aug 09 2021

...DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES FORECAST TO BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 59.2W
ABOUT 165 MI...260 KM ESE OF DOMINICA
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM SE OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of France has been issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
Guadeloupe and Martinique.

The government of Barbados has been issued a Tropical Storm Watch
for Dominica.

The government of the Dominican Republic has issued a Tropical Storm
Watch for the Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque eastward along
the southern coast of the island and the entire northern coast to
the Dominican Republic/Haiti border.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the U.S. Virgin Islands 
and Puerto Rico, including Culebra and Vieques.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Martinique and Guadeloupe
* Dominica
* Puerto Rico, including Culebra and Vieques
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Dominican Republic on the south coast from Punta Palenque eastward
and the entire northern coast to the Dominican Republic/Haiti
border.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
14.2 North, longitude 59.2 West. The system is moving toward the
west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this general motion is 
expected to continue during the next few days. On the forecast 
track, the system is expected to move through a portion of the 
southern Leeward Islands tonight, pass near or over the U.S. 
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico late Tuesday and Tuesday night, and 
near or over Hispaniola on Wednesday. 

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours and the 
disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm tonight. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Six can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, 
WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce the
following rainfall amounts:

Over the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico...2 to 4
inches, with isolated amounts of 6 inches. This rainfall could lead
to flash, urban, and small stream flooding and potential mudslides
across the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

Over the northern Windward Islands...1 to 3 inches.

Over the Dominican Republic...3 to 6 inches.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
in the Lesser Antilles tonight, and are also possible within the
watch area in the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico beginning
Tuesday afternoon.  Tropical storm conditions are possible within
the watch area in the Dominican Republic beginning early Wednesday.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Aug 8 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles 
east of the Windward Islands continues to produce disorganized 
showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions are expected 
to be favorable to support some gradual development over the next 
few days, and this system could become a tropical depression while 
it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.  The disturbance is 
forecast to reach portions of the Lesser Antilles late Monday, and 
then move near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Tuesday, and 
near Hispaniola around the middle of this week.  Interests in those 
areas should monitor the progress of this system, as it could bring 
locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds to portions of that area.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

2. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure 
located over the tropical Atlantic about midway between the Cabo 
Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles have diminished this morning. 
Although environmental conditions appear to be only marginally  
conducive for development, this system could still become a 
tropical depression later this week while it moves toward the 
west-southwest or west at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

670 
ABNT20 KNHC 211740
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Jul 21 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad trough of low pressure associated with a decaying frontal 
boundary over Mississippi and Alabama is forecast to move offshore 
of the southeastern United States coastline by the end of this week. 
Environmental conditions are forecast to be marginally conducive for 
some gradual development over the weekend into early next week while 
the system meanders offshore of the coasts of South Carolina, 
Georgia, and northeastern Florida.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Jul 15 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower activity has increased slightly since yesterday in 
association with a non-tropical area of low pressure, located 
several hundred miles south-southwest of Cape Race, Newfoundland. 
However, environmental conditions are only marginally conducive for 
development while the low moves little through tonight.  On Friday, 
the low is expected to accelerate northeastward and open up into a 
trough of low pressure to the south of Atlantic Canada.  Additional 
information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts 
issued by the National Weather Service.  
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be 
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and 
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Jul 13 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Satellite derived surface wind data indicate that the non-tropical 
area of low pressure, located several hundred miles southeast of 
Cape Race, Newfoundland, is producing winds below gale force and 
limited showers and thunderstorms.  Although environmental 
conditions are only marginally favorable during the next couple of  
days, some slight development is possible as it drifts generally 
southward over warmer waters.  Toward the end of the week, the low 
is expected to accelerate north-northeastward and open up into a 
trough of low pressure in response to an approaching frontal system 
moving off of the New England coast.  
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 30A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052021
200 PM EDT Wed Jul 07 2021

...ELSA INLAND AND WEAKENING OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.3N 83.5W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM W OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

All warnings have been discontinued south of the Suwannee River, 
Florida. 

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Florida from the Suwannee River to the Aucilla River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Florida from the Suwannee River to the Ochlockonee 
River
* Mouth of St. Marys River, Georgia to Little River Inlet, South
Carolina

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Little River Inlet, South Carolina to Sandy Hook, New
Jersey
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach and the tidal Potomac south
of Cobb Island
* Delaware Bay south of Slaughter Beach

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning
Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests in southeastern New England and the Canadian Maritimes
should monitor the progress of Elsa.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located near latitude 30.3 North, longitude 83.5 West.  Elsa is
moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h).  A turn toward 
the north-northeast is expected this evening, followed by a faster 
northeastward motion by late Thursday.  On the forecast track, Elsa 
will move over Georgia tonight, over South Carolina early on 
Thursday, over North Carolina later on Thursday, and move near or 
over the mid-Atlantic coast on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Continued weakening is expected through 
tomorrow as Elsa moves over land.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center. 

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue along the Gulf coast
of Florida in the warning area today.  Tropical storm conditions are
expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Georgia coast
by late today or tonight and along the South Carolina coast tonight
and early Thursday.  Tropical storm conditions are possible in the
watch area in the mid-Atlantic and northeastern states by Thursday
night and Friday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Suwannee River to Aucilla River...2 to 4 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Suwannee River including Tampa Bay...1 
to 3 ft
Aucilla River to Ochlockonee River...1 to 3 ft
Mouth of St. Marys River to South Santee River...1 to 2 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
and impacts the rest of this week:

Across western and northern portions of the Florida Peninsula...3
to 6 inches with localized maximum storm totals up to 9 inches
today, which may result in considerable flash and urban flooding,
along with minor to isolated moderate river flooding.

Across portions of southeast Georgia and the Lowcountry of South
Carolina, 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals up to 6 inches
will be possible, which may result in considerable flash and urban
flooding.

Across eastern North Carolina into southeastern Virginia...1 to 3
inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches tonight through Thursday
night, which could lead to isolated flash and urban flooding.

Across the Northeast and New England, 1 to 3 inches with isolated
totals up to 5 inches Thursday into Friday will be possible. This
could lead to isolated flash and urban flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight across
northern Florida and southeastern Georgia into eastern South
Carolina.  The tornado threat should shift to the eastern Carolinas
and far southeast Virginia on Thursday.

SURF: Swells will continue to affect portions of the west coast of
Florida through today.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office for more details.