Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Aug 25 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the 
southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next day or so from a tropical 
wave currently located over northwestern Colombia and the 
south-central Caribbean Sea.  Environmental conditions are forecast 
to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely 
to form late this week or over the weekend while the system moves 
west-northwestward to northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean 
Sea. The disturbance is expected to move near or across the Yucatan 
Peninsula of Mexico on Saturday, and move into the western Gulf of 
Mexico by Sunday where conditions could be favorable for additional 
development to occur. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

2. A broad trough of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms over the central tropical Atlantic about 800 miles 
southeast of Bermuda. Only slow development of this system is 
expected during the next day or so due to unfavorable upper-level 
winds. Afterwards, environmental conditions are forecast to become 
more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely 
to form late this week or this weekend while the system turns 
eastward over the central Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

3. A tropical wave over the far eastern tropical Atlantic located 
several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is 
producing a disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms. Some 
development of this system is possible over the next several days 
while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the eastern 
tropical Atlantic. Upper-level winds are forecast to become less 
conducive for development by this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Aug 24 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The Weather Prediction Center is issuing Public Advisories on 
Post-Tropical Cyclone Henri, located inland near southern New 
England.

1. A broad trough of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms over the east-central tropical Atlantic more than 1000 
miles west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Little development 
is expected during the next day or two due to marginally conducive 
ocean temperatures and strong upper-level winds. Afterwards, 
environmental conditions are expected to become more favorable for 
gradual development, and a tropical depression could form by the end 
of the week while the system moves northwestward to northward at 10 
to 15 mph over the central Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

2. A tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean Sea is expected to form a 
broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Caribbean Sea later 
this week.  Thereafter, environmental conditions are forecast to be 
favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression could 
form by the end of the week while the system moves 
west-northwestward to northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean 
Sea. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

3. Another tropical wave over the far eastern tropical Atlantic located 
about 500 miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is 
producing a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms. This 
activity has become a bit better organized tonight, and some 
additional development is possible over the next several days while 
this system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph 
over the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Public advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center on 
Post-Tropical Cyclone Henri can be found under AWIPS header 
TCPAT3, WMO header WTNT33 KWNH, and on the web at 
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Aug 23 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The Weather Prediction Center is issuing Public Advisories on 
Tropical Depression Henri, located inland over southern New 
England.

1. A broad low pressure system is producing disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms over the eastern tropical Atlantic more than 700 miles 
west of the Cabo Verde Islands.  Little development is expected  
during the next couple of days due to only marginally conducive 
ocean temperatures.  Thereafter, however, some gradual development 
will be possible through the end of the week while the system moves 
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

2. A tropical wave located over the eastern Caribbean Sea is expected 
to form a broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Caribbean 
Sea by late week.  Thereafter, environmental conditions are forecast 
to become favorable for gradual development while the system moves 
west-northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

3. Another area of disturbed weather has developed in association with 
a low pressure system located over the far eastern tropical Atlantic 
more than 500 miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands. Some 
slow development will be possible over the next several days while 
the disturbance moves westward to west-northwestward at around to 
15 mph over the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Public advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center on 
Tropical Depression Henri can be found under AWIPS header TCPAT3,
WMO header WTNT33 KWNH, and on the web at 
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Grace Advisory Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072021
500 PM EDT Mon Aug 16 2021

...TORRENTIAL RAINS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
...GRACE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 72.4W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM S OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM E OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Southern coast of the Cuban provinces of Santiago de Cuba, Granma,
Las Tunas, and Camaguey
* Cayman Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Entire coast of Haiti
* Jamaica
* Southern coast of the Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Sancti
Spiritus, Cienfuegos, and Matanzas, as well as Isla de la Juventud.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
should monitor the progress of Grace.  Additional watches or
warnings are possible tonight or on Tuesday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Grace
was located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 72.4 West. Grace is 
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h).  A west to 
west-northwest motion is expected during the next few days.  On the 
forecast track, the center of Grace will move near the Tiburon 
Peninsula of Haiti through tonight, move between Jamaica and 
southeastern Cuba on Tuesday, near the Cayman Islands Tuesday 
night, and approach the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico Wednesday and 
Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Grace is 
expected to regain tropical storm status on Tuesday.  Grace could 
be near hurricane strength when it approaches the Yucatan Peninsula 
of Mexico Wednesday night.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible in Haiti this evening 
into tonight, and in Jamaica on Tuesday.  Tropical storm conditions 
are expected along the southern coast of Cuba within the warning 
area on Tuesday, and over the Cayman Islands beginning late Tuesday 
into early Wednesday.  Tropical storm conditions are possible along 
the southern coast of Cuba within the watch area Tuesday night and 
Wednesday.

RAINFALL:  Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:

Over Haiti and the Dominican Republic...5 to 10 inches of rain with
isolated maximum totals of 15 inches are expected across the
southern terrain areas through Tuesday. This heavy rainfall may lead
to flash and urban flooding, and possible mudslides.

Over far southern Cuba, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands....2 to 4
inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches are expected
through Thursday. This heavy rainfall may lead to flash and urban
flooding.

SURF:  Swells generated by Grace will continue to affect portions of
Hispaniola over the next day or so, and will spread westward to 
Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, the southern coast of Cuba, and the 
Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico.  These swells are likely to cause 
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult 
products from your local weather office.

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Henri Advisory Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082021
500 PM AST Mon Aug 16 2021

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM HENRI...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.0N 62.9W
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSW OR 200 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was
located near latitude 31.0 North, longitude 62.9 West. Henri is
moving toward the south-southwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A slow
clockwise turn toward the southwest and then toward the west is
expected during the next day or two.  On the forecast track, the 
center of Henri should pass well to the south of Bermuda late 
Tuesday or Tuesday night.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) 
with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast during 
the next couple of days. 

Henri is a small tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds 
only extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible across Bermuda and
the nearby waters on Tuesday, particularly to the south of the
island.
I

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fred Advisory Number  29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062021
400 PM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021

...FRED MOVING FARTHER INLAND OVER THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
...HEAVY RAIN AND STORM SURGE THREAT CONTINUES...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.9N 85.3W
ABOUT 25 MI...35 KM NW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning west of the Okaloosa/Walton County line
is discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Coast of Florida from Indian Pass to Yankeetown

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Coast of the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend from the
Okaloosa/Walton County line to the Steinhatchee River

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary
actions to protect life and property from rising water and the
potential for other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow
evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was
located near latitude 29.9 North, longitude 85.3 West.  Fred is
moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this
general motion with an increase in forward speed is expected over
the next couple of days.  On the forecast track, Fred will move from
western Georgia on Tuesday across the southern Appalachian 
Mountains to West Virginia by Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Rapid weakening is expected, and Fred should become a tropical
depression by early Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.  A sustained wind of 49 mph ( 79 km/h) with a gust
to 68 mph (109 km/h) was recently observed at the Apalachicola
Airport.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL:

Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts:

Through Tuesday...

The Florida Big Bend and Panhandle... 4 to 8 inches of rain with
isolated maximum storm totals of 12 inches are expected.

Southeast Alabama through western and northern Georgia, and the
western Carolinas... 4 to 8 inches of rain with isolated maximum
storm totals of 10 inches are expected.

Through Wednesday...

Portions of the Mid-Atlantic States...2 to 4 inches of rain with
isolated maximum storm totals of 6 inches expected as Fred interacts
with a nearby front.

Heavy rainfall across portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic
States could lead to flash, urban, small stream and isolated river
flooding impacts.  An increased risk of landslides exists across the
mountains of North Carolina as well as portions of the Blue Ridge
Escarpment on Tuesday.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass to Steinhatchee River...3-5 ft
Steinhatchee River to Yankeetown, FL...2-4 ft

Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL to Indian Pass including
Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint Andrew Bay... 1-3 ft
Yankeetown, FL to Aripeka, FL...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
greatly over short distances.  For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions will continue in portions of the
Tropical Storm warning area for the next few hours.

SURF:  Swells generated by Fred are affecting the coasts of
Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, and could
causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please
consult products from your local weather office for more details.

TORNADOES:  A few tornadoes are possible this evening and tonight
across parts of the Florida Panhandle, southwest Georgia, and
southeast Alabama.  The tornado threat will shift northward into
parts of northeast Georgia, the western Carolinas, and southern
Virginia on Tuesday.