Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Sep 16 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on 
Post-Tropical Cyclone Nicholas, located near the central coast of 
Louisiana. 

1. Showers and thunderstorms have become slightly less organized in 
association with a tropical wave located a little more than 800 
miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.  However,  
environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for 
development during the next few days, and a tropical depression is 
still likely to form late this week or this weekend.  This system 
is expected to move westward to west-northwestward across the 
tropical Atlantic during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

2. Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased this morning over 
the eastern portion of a broad area of low pressure located about 
250 miles south-southeast of the Outer Banks of North Carolina.  
Environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for 
development, and a tropical depression is still likely to form 
during the next day or two while the system moves northward to 
north-northeastward off the southeast and mid-Atlantic U.S. coasts. 
Regardless of development, this system could bring high surf to 
portions of the southeast and mid-Atlantic U.S. coasts later this 
week and this weekend. Additional information on this system, 
including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued 
by the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.  An Air Force Reserve 
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance  
this afternoon. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

3. Showers and thunderstorms over the far eastern tropical Atlantic 
are associated with a tropical wave that will move off the west 
coast of Africa today. Environmental conditions are forecast to be 
marginally conducive for some gradual development over the next few 
days while the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward over 
the far eastern Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Public advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center on 
Post-Tropical Cyclone Nicholas can be found under AWIPS header 
TCPAT4, WMO header WTNT34 KWNH, and on the web at 
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov or hurricanes.gov

High Seas Forecasts for the system off the Outer Banks of North 
Carolina issued by the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center can be found 
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at 
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Sep 15 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Depression Nicholas, located near the Texas/Louisiana border. 

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area 
located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde 
Islands continue to show signs of organization.  Environmental 
conditions are expected to remain conducive for development, and a 
tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of 
days.  This system is expected to move westward to 
west-northwestward across the tropical Atlantic during the next 
several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

2. A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles northeast 
of the central Bahamas is producing a large area of disorganized 
showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions appear 
marginally conducive for development, and a tropical depression is 
likely to form during the next couple of days while the system moves 
north-northwestward to northward off the southeast U.S. coast. 
Regardless of development, this system could bring high surf to 
portions of the southeast and mid-Atlantic U.S. coasts later this 
week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

3. A tropical wave is expected to emerge off the west coast of 
Africa in a day or two. Thereafter, environmental conditions are 
forecast to be conducive for development while the system moves 
generally west-northwestward to northwestward over the 
far eastern Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Public advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center on 
Tropical Depression Nicholas can be found under AWIPS header TCPAT4, 
WMO header WTNT34 KWNH, and on the web at 
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov. 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Sep 14 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Nicholas, located over the upper Texas coastal plain near 
Houston.

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area 
located a few hundred miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde 
Islands continues to show signs of organization. Environmental 
conditions are expected to remain conducive for development, and a  
tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of 
days while system moves generally westward at about 15 mph across 
the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

2. A trough of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles 
northeast of the southeastern Bahamas is producing a large area 
of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental 
conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development 
during the next few days, and a tropical depression could form 
while the system moves north-northwestward to northward across the 
western Atlantic. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nicholas Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142021
100 PM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021

...NICHOLAS MOVING SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN 
PORTIONS OF THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
DEEP SOUTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.4N 95.0W
ABOUT 30 MI...55 KM SE OF HOUSTON TEXAS
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM WSW OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued west of High Island 
including Galveston Bay.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* High Island Texas to Sabine Pass

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* High Island Texas to Cameron Louisiana

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Sabine Pass to Cameron Louisiana

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For
a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For
a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicholas was
located near latitude 29.4 North, longitude 95.0 West. Nicholas is
moving toward the east-northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this 
general motion should continue through tonight.  An eastward turn 
is expected over Louisiana by Wednesday.  Little motion is 
anticipated on Thursday.

NOAA Doppler weather radar and surface observations indicate that
maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next
couple of days, and the storm is forecast to become a tropical 
depression by tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km),
mainly over water to the southeast of the center. A TCOON observing
station at Texas Point, Sabine Pass, Texas, recently measured a
1-minute sustained wind of 40 mph (65 km/h) and a gust to 53 mph 
(85 km/h) while a NOAA Ocean Service observing station at Calcasieu 
Pass, Louisiana, recently reported a 1-minute sustained wind of 
39 mph (63 km/h) and a gust to 47 mph (76 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches)
based on nearby surface observations.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nicholas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages

RAINFALL:  Nicholas is expected to produce additional rainfall of
5 to 10 inches from the upper Texas coastal area into central to
southern Louisiana, far southern Mississippi, far southern Alabama
and the western Florida Panhandle through Thursday, with isolated
storm totals of 20 inches across southern Louisiana.
Life-threatening flash flooding impacts, especially in urbanized
metropolitan areas, are possible across these regions.

Widespread minor to isolated major river flooding is expected across
portions of the upper Texas Gulf Coast and southern Louisiana and
Mississippi.

For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with
Hurricane Nicholas see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4
with the WMO header ACUS44KWBC or at the following link
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

High Island, TX to Cameron, LA...2-4 ft
San Luis Pass to High Island, TX...1-3 ft
Galveston Bay...1-3 ft
Cameron, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...1-3 ft
Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas
of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue along the
Louisiana coast into this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions
in the warning area across the upper Texas coast will diminish this
afternoon as Nicholas moves farther to the east.

TORNADOES:  A tornado or two will be possible today into tonight
across southern Louisiana.

SURF:  Swells generated by Nicholas will continue affecting portions
of the northwest Gulf coast today. These swells are likely to cause 
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult 
products from your local weather office.

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nicholas Advisory Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142021
1000 AM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021

...NICHOLAS MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
DEEP SOUTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.6N 95.3W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM SE OF HOUSTON TEXAS
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM WSW OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued west of High
Island, Texas.

The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued south of Port
Bolivar, Texas.

The Storm Surge Watch has been discontinued east of Cameron,
Louisiana.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Port Bolivar Texas to Sabine Pass including Galveston Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* High Island Texas to Cameron Louisiana

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Sabine Pass to Cameron Louisiana

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For 
a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather 
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at 
hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons 
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to 
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for 
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other 
instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For 
a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather 
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at 
hurricanes.gov.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicholas was
located near latitude 29.6 North, longitude 95.3 West. Nicholas is
moving toward the northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h) and this general
motion should continue today. The storm should move more slowly
toward the east-northeast by tonight, and then turn eastward on
Wednesday over Louisiana.  Little motion is anticipated on Thursday.

NOAA Doppler weather radar and surface observations indicate that
maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next
couple of days as Nicholas moves farther inland, and the storm is
forecast to become a tropical depression by tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km),
mainly over water to the southeast of the center. A TCOON observing 
station at Texas Point, Sabine Pass, Texas, recently measured a 
1-minute sustained wind of 40 mph (65 km/h) and a gust to 51 mph 
(81 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches)
based on nearby surface observations.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nicholas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages

RAINFALL:  Nicholas is expected to produce additional rainfall of
5 to 10 inches from the upper Texas coastal area into central to
southern Louisiana, far southern Mississippi, far southern Alabama
and the western Florida Panhandle through Thursday, with isolated
storm totals of 20 inches across southern Louisiana.
Life-threatening flash flooding impacts, especially in urbanized
metropolitan areas, are possible across these regions.

Widespread minor to isolated major river flooding is expected across
portions of the upper Texas Gulf Coast and southern Louisiana and
Mississippi.

For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with
Hurricane Nicholas see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 
with the WMO header ACUS44KWBC or at the following link
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Port Bolivar, TX to Cameron, LA including Galveston Bay...2-4 ft
Port Aransas, TX to Port Bolivar, TX...1-3 ft
Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, and Matagorda Bay...1-3 ft
Cameron, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...1-3 ft
Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas
of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue along the 
Louisiana coast into this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions 
in the warning area across the upper Texas coast will diminish this 
afternoon as Nicholas moves farther to the northeast.

TORNADOES:  A tornado or two will be possible today into tonight
across southern Louisiana.

SURF:  Swells generated by Nicholas will continue affecting portions
of the northwest Gulf coast today. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please
consult products from your local weather office.

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nicholas Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142021
700 AM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021

...NICHOLAS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA... 
...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS EXPECTED ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH 
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.5N 95.5W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM SSW OF HOUSTON TEXAS
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM WSW OF BEAUMONT TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of San Luis 
Pass.

The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued south of San Luis 
Pass.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* San Luis Pass to Sabine Pass including Galveston Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Luis Pass Texas to Cameron Louisiana

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Sabine Pass to Rutherford Beach Louisiana

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a
life-threatening situation.  Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of
areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

Interests elsewhere in southwestern Louisiana should monitor the
progress of Nicholas.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicholas was
located near latitude 29.5 North, longitude 95.5 West. Nicholas is
moving toward the north-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h) and that 
general motion should continue this morning. The storm should move 
more slowly to the northeast later today, and then turn eastward by 
Wednesday over Louisiana.  Little motion is anticipated on Thursday.

Data from NOAA Doppler radars indicate that maximum sustained winds 
have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.  Nicholas 
should weaken further today as it moves farther inland, and the 
storm is forecast to become a tropical depression by Wednesday 
morning.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.  During the past couple of hours, a Weatherflow 
station near Galveston Bay, Texas, reported a 1-minute sustained 
wind of 39 mph (63 km/h) and a gust to 52 mph (84 km/h). Farther 
to the east, an observing station at Texas Point recently reported 
a 1-minute sustained wind of 37 mph (60 km/h) and a gust to 45 mph 
(72 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches) 
based on nearby surface observations.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nicholas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages

RAINFALL:  Nicholas is expected to produce additional rainfall of 
5 to 10 inches from the upper Texas coastal area into central to
southern Louisiana, far southern Mississippi and far southern
Alabama, with isolated storm totals of 20 inches across central 
to southern Louisiana. Life-threatening flash flooding impacts,
especially in urbanized metropolitan areas, are possible across
these regions.

Widespread minor to isolated major river flooding is expected across
portions of the upper Texas Gulf Coast and southern Louisiana and
Mississippi.

For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with
Hurricane Nicholas see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with
the WMO header ACUS44KWBC or at the following link
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

San Luis Pass to High Island, TX including Galveston Bay...3-5 ft
High Island, TX to Rutherford Beach, LA...2-4 ft
Port Aransas, TX to San Luis Pass, TX...1-3 ft
Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, and Matagorda Bay...1-3 ft
Rutherford Beach, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...1-3 ft
Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas
of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue within
the warning area across the upper Texas coast through this morning, 
and begin along the Louisiana coast later this morning.

TORNADOES:  A tornado or two will be possible today along the upper 
Texas Coast and southern Louisiana.

SURF:  Swells generated by Nicholas will continue affecting portions
of the northwest Gulf coast today. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please
consult products from your local weather office.

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nicholas Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142021
700 PM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021

...NICHOLAS BRINGING HEAVY RAINS, STRONG WINDS, AND STORM SURGES TO 
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.1N 96.2W
ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM SSW OF MATAGORDA TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Port Aransas Texas to Sabine Pass
* Galveston Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, and Matagorda Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Port Aransas to San Luis Pass Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Baffin Bay to Sabine Pass

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Sabine Pass to Rutherford Beach Louisiana

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at 
hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of
areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in southwestern Louisiana should monitor the
progress of Nicholas.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicholas was
located near latitude 28.1 North, longitude 96.2 West.  Nicholas is 
moving toward the north-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this 
general motion is expected to continue through tonight, followed by 
a turn toward the northeast by late Tuesday.  On the forecast 
track, the center of Nicholas is expected to make landfall along 
the central Texas coast later tonight.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Some additional strengthening is possible during 
the next few hours, and Nicholas could become a hurricane when it 
reaches the Texas coast.  Weakening is anticipated on Tuesday and 
Wednesday while Nicholas moves over land.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.  A WeatherFlow station at Matagorda Bay recently 
reported a sustained wind of 55 mph (89 km/h) with a gust to 71 mph 
(115 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nicholas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages

RAINFALL:  Nicholas is expected to produce storm total rainfall of
6 to 12 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches, across
portions of the middle and upper Texas coastal areas through
Wednesday. Life-threatening flash flooding impacts, especially in
highly urbanized metropolitan areas, are possible across portions of
the upper Texas Gulf Coast and far southwestern Louisiana.

Across interior southeast Texas into southern-central Louisiana and
southern Mississippi, rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with locally
higher amounts near 10 inches are expected through Thursday.  This
rainfall may produce areas of considerable flash and urban
flooding.

The potential for minor to isolated moderate river flooding exists
across the entire region, along with isolated major river flooding,
especially in the smaller river basins and urban areas.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Port O'Connor, TX to San Luis Pass including Matagorda Bay...3-5 ft
San Luis Pass to Rutherford Beach, LA including Galveston
Bay...2-4 ft
Port Aransas, TX to Port O'Connor, TX...2-4 ft
Aransas Bay and San Antonio Bay...2-4 ft
Rutherford Beach, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...1-3 ft
Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake...1-3 ft
Baffin Bay to Port Aransas, TX...1-3 ft
Corpus Christi Bay...1-3 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande to Baffin Bay...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas
of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area across the central and upper Texas coasts through tonight, 
making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.  Hurricane 
conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area as early as this 
evening.

TORNADOES:  A couple of tornadoes will be possible through tonight,
mainly along the upper Texas coast.

SURF:  Swells generated by Nicholas will continue affecting portions
of the northwest Gulf coast through Tuesday. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please
consult products from your local weather office.

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nicholas Advisory Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142021
400 PM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021

...NICHOLAS NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL 
TEXAS COAST...
...FLASH FLOODING, STORM SURGE, AND GUSTY WINDS OCCURRING ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.4N 96.4W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM S OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM SSW OF MATAGORDA TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of Baffin 
Bay, Texas. 

The Storm Surge Watch from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas, Texas, 
including Corpus Christi Bay has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Port Aransas Texas to Sabine Pass
* Galveston Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, and Matagorda Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Port Aransas to San Luis Pass Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Baffin Bay to Sabine Pass

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Sabine Pass to Rutherford Beach Louisiana

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of
areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in southwestern Louisiana should monitor the
progress of Nicholas.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicholas was 
located by NOAA Doppler weather radars near latitude 27.4 North, 
longitude 96.4 West.  Nicholas is moving toward the north-northeast 
near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion is expected to 
continue through tonight, followed by a turn toward the northeast by 
late Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Nicholas is 
expected to make landfall along the central Texas coast later 
tonight.

Data from NOAA Doppler weather radars and an earlier reconnaissance 
flight indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 
65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts.  Some additional strengthening 
is forecast this afternoon and evening, and Nicholas could be near 
hurricane strength when it reaches the central Texas coast.  
Weakening is anticipated on Tuesday and Wednesday while Nicholas 
moves over land.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.  During the past couple of hours, NOAA buoy 42019 
located about 75 miles northeast of the center, reported a 
sustained wind of 45 mph (72 km/h) and a gust to 56 mph (91 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nicholas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages

RAINFALL:  Nicholas is expected to produce storm total rainfall of
6 to 12 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches, across
portions of the middle and upper Texas coastal areas through
Wednesday. Life-threatening flash flooding impacts, especially in
highly urbanized metropolitan areas, are possible across portions of
the upper Texas Gulf Coast and far southwestern Louisiana.

Across interior southeast Texas into southern-central Louisiana and
southern Mississippi, rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with locally
higher amounts near 10 inches are expected through Thursday. This
rainfall may produce areas of considerable flash and urban
flooding.

The potential for minor to isolated moderate river flooding exists
across the entire region, along with isolated major river flooding,
especially in the smaller river basins and urban areas.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Port O'Connor, TX to San Luis Pass including Matagorda Bay...3-5 ft
San Luis Pass to Rutherford Beach, LA including Galveston 
Bay...2-4 ft
Port Aransas, TX to Port O'Connor, TX...2-4 ft
Aransas Bay and San Antonio Bay...2-4 ft
Rutherford Beach, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...1-3 ft
Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake...1-3 ft
Baffin Bay to Port Aransas, TX...1-3 ft
Corpus Christi Bay...1-3 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande to Baffin Bay...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas
of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area across central and upper Texas coasts through tonight, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane conditions
are possible in the Hurricane Watch area as early as this evening.

TORNADOES:  A couple of tornadoes will be possible through tonight,
mainly along the upper Texas coast.

SURF:  Swells generated by Nicholas will continue affecting portions
of the northwest Gulf coast through Tuesday. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please
consult products from your local weather office.