BULLETIN Tropical Storm Rose Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021 800 PM CVT Sun Sep 19 2021 ...ROSE BECOMES THE SEVENTEENTH NAMED STORM OF THE BUSY 2021 HURRICANE SEASON... SUMMARY OF 800 PM CVT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.3N 29.9W ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM CVT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rose was located near latitude 14.3 North, longitude 29.9 West. Rose is moving toward the north-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A motion toward the northwest is forecast to begin by tonight and continue through Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected through Monday. By Tuesday, environmental conditions are expected to become less conducive, and Rose is forecast to begin a slow weakening trend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None.
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TS Peter Advisory # 5
BULLETIN Tropical Storm Peter Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021 500 PM AST Sun Sep 19 2021 ...PETER FENDING OFF STRONG WIND SHEAR... ...EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EARLY THIS WEEK... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.4N 57.8W ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Peter was located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 57.8 West. Peter is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general motion along with a gradual decrease in forward speed is is expected through Tuesday. A turn to the northwest is expected to occur by Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Peter is expected to pass well north of the Leeward Islands on Monday and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast tonight. Some slight weakening is expected on Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) primarily to the northeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Rainfall around the southern periphery of Tropical Storm Peter could produce rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches, with locally higher amounts possible, across portions of the Northern Leeward Islands, including the Virgin Islands, as well as Puerto Rico through Tuesday. This rainfall may lead to areas of urban and small stream flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Peter are expected to reach the northern Leeward Islands tonight and Monday, and then the Bahamas by midweek. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
T.D. 17, Advisory # 1
BULLETIN Tropical Depression Seventeen Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021 800 AM CVT Sun Sep 19 2021 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 800 AM CVT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.8N 28.2W ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM CVT (0900 UTC), the center of newly formed Tropical Depression Seventeen was located near latitude 11.8 North, longitude 28.2 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. A motion toward northwest is forecast to begin by tonight and continue through Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected for the next couple of days, and the depression could become a tropical storm later today or on Monday. By Tuesday, environmental conditions are is expected to become less conducive for development, and the system is forecast to begin a slow weakening trend. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None.
T.S. Peter Advisory # 3
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Peter Special Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021
900 AM AST Sun Sep 19 2021
...CENTER OF PETER FOUND FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST...
...STILL EXPECTED TO PASS WELL NORTH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...
SUMMARY OF 900 AM AST...1300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 56.0W
ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
Interests in the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and
Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this system.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM AST (1300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Peter was
located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 56.0 West. Peter is
moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. On the forecast
track, Peter is expected to pass well to the north of the northern
Leeward Islands on Monday and Tuesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or
so, followed by a slow weakening trend by late Monday and on
Tuesday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (170 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The outer bands south of the Tropical Storm Peter could
produce rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches across portions of the
Northern Leeward Islands, including the Virgin Islands, as well as
Puerto Rico late Sunday into Tuesday. This rainfall may lead to
areas of urban and small stream flooding.
SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Peter are expected to
reach the northern Leeward Islands Sunday night and Monday. These
swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
Tropical Update 9/18 1400 EDT
Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sat Sep 18 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Odette, located a few hundred miles southeast of Nantucket, Massachusetts. 1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located about 650 miles east-southeast of the northern Leeward Islands continue to show signs of organization. However, satellite-derived wind data from a few hours ago indicated that the system does not yet have a well-defined surface circulation. Only a slight increase in organization of this system would lead to the formation of a tropical depression or tropical storm, which is expected to occur later today or tonight while the low moves toward the west-northwest at about 15 mph. This system is expected to be near the northern Leeward Islands on Monday and Tuesday, and interests there should monitor its progress. Upper-level winds are likely to become less conducive for development when the system reaches the southwestern Atlantic by the early to middle part of next week. Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. 2. A low pressure system located over the far eastern Atlantic a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to show some signs of organization. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development of this system, and a tropical depression could form over the next couple of days while moving toward the northwest at 10 to 15 mph to the west of the Cabo Verde Islands. This system is expected to reach cooler waters and an area of stronger upper-level winds early next week, which could limit its development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Odette are issued under WMO header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Odette are issued under WMO header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5. High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
Stay safe
Stay Alert in These North Florida ZIP Codes
Toni Koraza
Photo by Kindel Media from Pexels
North Florida is plagued with unruly behavior.
Violent events such as murder, rape, robbery, and assault are among the neverending realities of life in North Florida. Not every region in the northern part of Florida has high crime rates. Some places are safe and family-oriented. But the following are considered to be the most dangerous ZIP Codes in North Florida.
Jacksonville is effectively the murder capital of the Sunshine state
Starting with the deadliest, the region of Jacksonville with the ZIP Code 32209 has the highest rate in the region. This region has reported an average of two homicides in one month since 2018. In 2019, the total numbers of homicide recorded in this region were 25 and 5 of the victims were under the age of 18. These five young victims include a 7-years old, a 14-years old, 17 years old, and two 16 years old. The remaining victims include seven women and a transgender woman who was gunned down by unknown people between two abandoned houses. From these 25 cases of 32209, Police have only made five arrests while another one was declared to be a justifiable homicide.
The next deadliest ZIP Code is 32210 bordering the 32209. The residents of this region may feel like they live in a warzone. According to the latest data, this region had 36,314 crimes last year, out of which 30,398 were property violations while 5,916 were violent events such as murder, rape, assault, and other transgressions. This ZIP Code had 11 homicides in 2019, including a triple shooting outside Raines High School football stadium that resulted in the death of 19 years old. A 16 years old boy was arrested and charged. The region also witnessed a 16 years old slaughtering 19 years old in June of 2019.
Tallahassee is one of the least safe cities
Moving forward, Florida’s capital and trade hub, Tallahassee, is one of the least safe cities in the whole country. The ZIP Codes of this region ranging from 32301 to 32317, are without any doubt some of the most dangerous ZIP Codes in North Florida. The total number of crimes in Tallahassee as of the latest data was 9,633 in the last year, of which 8,256 were property crimes while 1,377 were violent crimes. In addition, 28 were murdered in the Florida Capital in 2020, which is a 33% increase as compared to last year. As a result, people in these regions are afraid to come out of their houses, even during the day. However, there was an evident decrease in other crimes such as rapes and robberies.
Gainesville has made the deadly list
In the end, Gainesville has also made to the list of most dangerous regions of North Florida. Your chances of being a victim in the northeast part of the city having ZIP Code 20156 are 1 out of 1. December was the deadliest year for this region, with multiple homicides, including the murder of a woman and her infant child, a double homicide, and many others. With the increasing rate of murder and other related crimes, many residents of the region are considering migrating to a safer region.
Crime rates are dropping across Florida, but there’s no reason for celebration yet
Florida Department of Law Enforcement reports a steady drop in crime rates across the state for almost 50 consecutive years. However, your chance of becoming a victim of a violent crime in the above zip codes is still unusually high. Individual neighborhoods are comparable to warzones in the Middle East and Cartel-occupied parts of Central and South America.
The pandemic-induced unemployment spike has also affected the crime rate in these regions. Some also argue that fast pace urbanization and tourism also play a big part. I live in any of the above neighborhoods, please, stay mindful of your environment and exercise safety precautions.
Tropical Outlook 9/18
Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sat Sep 18 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Odette, located a couple of hundred miles south-southeast of Nantucket, Massachusetts. 1. Showers and thunderstorms continue to become better organized in association with an area of low pressure located about 650 miles miles east-southeast of the northern Leeward Islands. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for further development during the next day or two, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form later today or tonight while the system moves toward the west-northwest at about 15 mph. This system is expected to be near the northern Leeward Islands on Monday and Tuesday, and interests there should monitor its progress. Upper-level winds are likely to become less conducive for development when the system reaches the southwestern Atlantic by the early to middle part of next week. Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. 2. A broad area of low pressure is located over the far eastern Atlantic a few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands. The associated shower and thunderstorm activity has become a little better organized since yesterday, and environmental conditions appear conducive for further development during the next couple of days. A tropical depression could form while the system moves northwestward at about 10 mph to the west of the Cabo Verde Islands before it reaches cooler waters and stronger upper-level winds early next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Odette are issued under WMO header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Odette are issued under WMO header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5. High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
Happy Birthday !
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T.S. Odette Advisory #1
BULLETIN Tropical Storm Odette Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152021 500 PM EDT Fri Sep 17 2021 ...TROPICAL STORM ODETTE FORMS OFF THE U.S. MID-ATLANTIC COAST... ...FORECAST TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY SATURDAY NIGHT SOUTH OF ATLANTIC CANADA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.7N 71.8W ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM SE OF CAPE MAY NEW JERSEY ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM SSW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Please refer to products issued by Environment Canada for Odette's potential impacts to Newfoundland as a post-tropical cyclone. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Odette was located near latitude 36.7 North, longitude 71.8 West. Odette is moving toward the northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue into tonight. A turn toward the east-northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected to begin on Saturday and continue through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Odette will move away from the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast and pass south of Atlantic Canada over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Odette is expected to become a strong post-tropical low by Saturday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) to the north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Odette are affecting portions of the United States Mid-Atlantic coast and are expected to spread northward to portions of the U.S. Northeast and Atlantic Canada coasts during the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
Tropical Outlook 9/17
Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Fri Sep 17 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Post-Tropical Cyclone Nicholas, located over Louisiana. 1. Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized in association with a tropical wave and broad area of low pressure located about 1100 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. However, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development during the next few days, and a tropical depression could still form over the weekend. This system is expected to move westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the tropical Atlantic during the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. 2. A broad area of low pressure is located about 100 miles southeast of the Outer Banks of North Carolina. Although the circulation of this system has become a little better defined since yesterday, the associated showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized and located mainly well to the east of the center. Environmental conditions are becoming more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or so while the system moves northward to north-northeastward off the southeast and mid-Atlantic U.S. coasts. Regardless of development, this system could bring high surf to portions of the southeast and mid-Atlantic U.S. coasts through this weekend. Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. 3. Disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms over the far eastern tropical Atlantic are associated with a tropical wave located a few hundred miles southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are forecast to be only marginally conducive, and development, if any, of this system should be slow to occur over the next few days while the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward over the far eastern Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. Public advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center on Post-Tropical Cyclone Nicholas can be found under AWIPS header TCPAT4, WMO header WTNT34 KWNH, and on the web at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov or hurricanes.gov High Seas Forecasts for the system off the Outer Banks of North Carolina issued by the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php