TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Oct 16 2024
For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. East of the Leeward Islands (AL94):
Recent satellite surface wind data showed the circulation associated
with a disturbance over the tropical Atlantic Ocean has become less
defined since yesterday. The trough of low pressure continues to
produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system is
forecast to move generally westward to west-northwestward, and
environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for gradual
development during the latter part of this week. A tropical
depression could form as the system moves near the Leeward and
Virgin Islands late this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days…medium…40 percent.
2. Western Caribbean Sea:
Showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Caribbean Sea are
associated with a broad area of low pressure. Some gradual
development is possible if the system stays over water while it
moves slowly northwestward toward Central America. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rainfall is possible across portions of
Central America and southern Mexico later this week and into the
weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…20 percent.
Forecaster Bucci/R. Zelinsky