Florida played arguably its most complete half of football in the final 30 minutes against Tennessee, scoring three second-half touchdowns and shutting out the Volunteers in the final two quarters. That performance certainly gives the Gators a lot to build off of heading into what could be their toughest remaining test outside of Georgia.

This is a Kentucky team that has given Florida headaches in recent years, and this looks to be one of the better teams coach Mark Stoops has constructed in Lexington. With UF heading on the road in the SEC for the first time this season (in a night game, no less), things could certainly get a bit dicey for it in this one.

But worry not, Gators fans. The math is on your side.

According to this week’s score predictions from SP+, the analytics system created by ESPN college football writer Bill Connelly, Florida has a 75% chance to beat the Wildcats on Saturday night with a predicted score of 34-23.

We know that the SP+ is very high on UF, which places fourth in the rankings this week. And the system thinks that the Gators will manage to cover the 7.5-point spread currently listed by Tipico Sportsbook.

SP+ predicts that the game will produce 57 total points, meaning that the 55.5 over/under listed by Tipico would hit.

All of Florida’s goals are still in front of it this season, but it has to avoid a slipup in a game like this. SP+ thinks that Florida will win fairly comfortably, though, and get to 4-1 on the season.