BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Six Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
500 PM EDT Sun Oct 04 2020
…DISTURBANCE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXPECTED TO BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM AND STRENGTHEN FURTHER OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN
SEA…
…WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND WESTERN
CUBA…
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…16.7N 76.6W
ABOUT 90 MI…145 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 350 MI…565 KM ESE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH…17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1007 MB…29.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The government of the Cayman Islands has issued a Tropical Storm
Warning for the Cayman Islands, including Little Cayman and Cayman
Brac.
The government of Cuba has issued a Hurricane Watch for the Isle of
Youth and the Cuba provinces of Pinar del Rio and Artemisa. A
Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Cuban province of La
Habana.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and Artemisa
* Isle of Youth
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Cayman Islands including Little Cayman and Cayman Brac
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Cuba province of La Habana
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
16.7 North, longitude 76.6 West. The system is moving toward the
west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A west-northwestward to
northwestward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected
over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of the
disturbance is expected to pass near or just southwest of Jamaica
tonight and early Monday, move near or over the Cayman Islands
Monday night, and approach the Isle of Youth and western Cuba
Tuesday afternoon or evening. The system is forecast to move into
the southeastern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night or early Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected during the next 2 to 3 days and the
system is forecast to be a tropical storm when it nears the Cayman
Islands, and a hurricane when it moves near or over western Cuba.
Conditions are conducive for development and the system is forecast
to become a tropical depression or storm tonight or early Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Six can be found
in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1,
WMO header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast of the Isle of Youth and along the south coast of western
Cuba near and to right of where the center makes landfall. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.
RAINFALL: Through midweek, this system has the potential to produce
3 to 5 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches
across Jamaica, southern Haiti, and western Cuba. This rainfall
could lead to life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Over
the Cayman Islands, 2 to 4 inches of rainfall will be possible with
this system.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands
beginning late Monday. Hurricane conditions are possible within
the Hurricane Watch area by Tuesday afternoon, with tropical storm
conditions possible by early Tuesday. Tropical Storm conditions
are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in Cuba by early
Tuesday.