BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gamma Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020
700 AM CDT Sat Oct 03 2020
…GAMMA STRENGTHENS SOME MORE AS IT APPROACHES THE EAST COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA…
SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT…1200 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…19.7N 87.2W
ABOUT 40 MI…65 KM SSE OF TULUM MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…65 MPH…100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH…15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…987 MB…29.15 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Punta Herrero to Dzilam Mexico
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* South of Punta Herrero to Puerto Costa Maya Mexico
* West of Dzilam to Progreso Mexico
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gamma was
located near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 87.2 West. Gamma is
moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this motion
should continue at a slower forward speed today. A turn toward the
north is expected on Sunday, followed by a turn to the west or
west-southwest Sunday night or Monday. On the forecast track, the
center of Gamma should move inland over the eastern Yucatan
Peninsula later today, and be near the north coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula on Sunday.
Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph
(100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight additional strengthening
is possible before Gamma makes landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula
today. After landfall, some weakening is expected.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.
The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter
observations is 987 mb (29.15 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
Key messages for Tropical Storm Gamma can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.
RAINFALL: Gamma is expected to produce rainfall of 4 to 8 inches
across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and far western Cuba, with
maximum rainfall amounts as high as 10 to 15 inches possible across
the northeastern portion of the Mexican state of Quintana Roo. This
rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods.
A separate area of significant rain is expected to develop well away
from the center in the Mexican states of Campeche, Tabasco, and
northern Chiapas with rainfall of 8 to 12 inches and isolated
maximum amounts of 20 inches. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
Rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with maximum amounts of 5 inches is
expected in the Bay Islands of Honduras and over the Cayman Islands.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are spreading into the Tropical
Storm Warning area on the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, and
these conditions should spread across the remainder of the warning
area through Sunday. Tropical Storm conditions are possible
within the Tropical Storm Watch area later today and on Sunday.