TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Nov 1 2024
For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
Surface observations and satellite imagery indicate that a broad
area of low pressure is forming over the southwestern Caribbean.
Additional gradual development is possible over the next several
days, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this weekend
or early next week while the system drifts generally northward or
northwestward over the central or western Caribbean Sea. Regardless
of development, locally heavy rains are possible over portions of
the adjacent land areas of the western Caribbean including Jamaica,
Hispaniola, and Cuba.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days…high…80 percent.
2. Northeastern Caribbean Sea and Greater Antilles:
A trough of low pressure located near Puerto Rico is producing a
large area of showers and thunderstorms over portions of the Greater
Antilles and the adjacent waters of the Atlantic and the
northeastern Caribbean. Slow development of this system is possible
during the next couple of days as it moves west-northwestward near
the Greater Antilles. After that time, this system is expected to
be absorbed into the low pressure area over the Caribbean.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible during
the next several days from the northern Leeward Islands westward
across Puerto Rico and Hispaniola to eastern Cuba and the
southeastern Bahamas.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…10 percent.
3. North Atlantic (AL96):
Showers and thunderstorms near the center of a low pressure system
located a few hundred miles west-northwest of the Azores continue to
show signs of organization. Environmental conditions appear
favorable for some development during the next day or two, and the
system could become a subtropical or tropical storm as it moves
generally east-southeastward during the next few days. Interest in
the Azores should monitor the progress of this system. Additional
information on this system is available in High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service and Meteo France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days…medium…50 percent.
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO
header FQNT50 LFPW and available on the web at
www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/
metarea2.
Forecaster Beven