TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024
For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL96):
An area of low pressure located several hundred miles southeast of
Bermuda continues to produce showers and thunderstorms north of its
center. Although environmental conditions are not very favorable
for development, a short-lived tropical depression can not be ruled
out if showers and thunderstorms become better organized while the
system moves generally northward at 5 to 10 mph over the central
subtropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…20 percent.
2. Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is likely to form during the next few
days over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the adjacent portions
of Central America. Thereafter, gradual development of this system
is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form as the
system moves slowly northward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea
and Gulf of Mexico through the end of the week. Regardless of
development, this system is expected to produce heavy rains over
portions of Central America during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days…high…70 percent.
3. Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move westward from the coast of
Africa over the next few days. Gradual development of this
system is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form
during the middle to latter part of the week while the wave moves
westward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days…medium…40 percent.
Forecaster Kelly