TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024
For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL96):
An area of low pressure located about 700 miles southeast of
Bermuda continues to produce a small cluster of showers and
thunderstorms northeast of its center. However, the low is
embedded in a very dry environment, and therefore significant
development is not expected while it moves generally northward at 5
to 10 mph over the central subtropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…10 percent.
2. Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure should form during the next few days
over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the adjacent portions of
Central America. Thereafter, gradual development of this system is
expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form as the system
moves slowly northward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and
Gulf of Mexico through the end of next week. Regardless of
development, this system is expected to produce heavy rains over
portions of Central America during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days…high…70 percent.
3. Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move westward from the coast of
Africa on Sunday or Monday. Gradual development of this system is
possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form next week
while the wave moves westward across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days…medium…40 percent.
Forecaster Beven