BULLETIN Hurricane Sam Advisory Number 40 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 1100 AM AST Sat Oct 02 2021 ...STEADFAST SAM MAINTAINING CATEGORY 4 WINDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.9N 59.3W ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM ENE OF BERMUDA ABOUT 940 MI...1515 KM SSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sam was located near latitude 33.9 North, longitude 59.3 West. Sam is moving toward the northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h). This general track with an increase in forward speed is expected for the next few days. On the forecast track, Sam will continue to move away from Bermuda. Maximum sustained winds remain near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Sam is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some slow weakening is forecast during the next 36 hours, followed by more significant weakening early next week. Sam could become a powerful post-tropical cyclone on Tuesday. Sam is becoming a large tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 65 miles (100 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 945 mb (27.91 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Sam can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages. SURF: Swells generated by Sam will impact the northern Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the eastern United States and Atlantic Canada for the next couple of days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
Monthly Archives: October 2021
SP+ Predictions, UF @ UK
Florida played arguably its most complete half of football in the final 30 minutes against Tennessee, scoring three second-half touchdowns and shutting out the Volunteers in the final two quarters. That performance certainly gives the Gators a lot to build off of heading into what could be their toughest remaining test outside of Georgia.
This is a Kentucky team that has given Florida headaches in recent years, and this looks to be one of the better teams coach Mark Stoops has constructed in Lexington. With UF heading on the road in the SEC for the first time this season (in a night game, no less), things could certainly get a bit dicey for it in this one.
But worry not, Gators fans. The math is on your side.
According to this week’s score predictions from SP+, the analytics system created by ESPN college football writer Bill Connelly, Florida has a 75% chance to beat the Wildcats on Saturday night with a predicted score of 34-23.
We know that the SP+ is very high on UF, which places fourth in the rankings this week. And the system thinks that the Gators will manage to cover the 7.5-point spread currently listed by Tipico Sportsbook.
SP+ predicts that the game will produce 57 total points, meaning that the 55.5 over/under listed by Tipico would hit.
All of Florida’s goals are still in front of it this season, but it has to avoid a slipup in a game like this. SP+ thinks that Florida will win fairly comfortably, though, and get to 4-1 on the season.
Game Overview – UF vs. UK
The Florida Gators football team plays their first SEC road game of the season tomorrow as they travel to Lexington. The undefeated Wildcats will pose a challenge for the Gators as they try to improve to 4-1 and pick up a second SEC win.
A Trip Down Memory Lane
Kentucky has given the Gators some tough games in recent memory, going back to 2014 when Kentucky took Florida to three overtimes in the Swamp. 2018 of course was also the year Kentucky finally defeated Florida to end the then 31-year streak the Gators held. The last two times Florida has traveled to Lexington, it took late-game magic for the Gators to escape with a win.
The 2017 matchup saw the Gators trail 27-14 in the fourth quarter. Quarterback Luke Del Rio came off the bench to rally Florida to victory, with the aid of Kentucky leaving Freddie Swain uncovered in the end zone. Kentucky’s last-second field goal attempt landed short and Florida escaped to win 28-27.
The 2019 game was equally tense. Florida trailed Kentucky 21-10 in the fourth quarter and quarterback Feleipe Franks suffered his season-ending ankle injury. Here began the fairytale rise of Kyle Trask. Florida scored 12 unanswered points with Trask to pull ahead 22-21. Kentucky’s missed 35-yard field goal and Josh Hammond’s 76-yard touchdown run made for a 29-21 Gators victory.
This Year’s Teams
Four games into the 2021 season, both teams are playing about as expected. Starting with Kentucky, the Wildcats are 4-0 with wins over Louisiana-Monroe, Mizzou, Chattanooga, and South Carolina. The road for Kentucky thus far has been a fairly easy one, but they have taken care of business nonetheless.
However, Florida is the first real test for Kentucky this year. On top of that, this Saturday begins a three-week stretch where Kentucky plays Florida, LSU and at Georgia. This stretch of games is where we’ll find out how good Kentucky really is.
As for Florida, the Gators go to Lexington with a 3-1 record with wins over Florida Atlantic, South Florida and Tennessee and a two-point loss to top-ranked Alabama. With the Alabama game in the rearview mirror, the Gators entire season now hinges upon the result of the annual Florida-Georgia game. It is important for the Gators to not overlook the games between now and then, or else they might find themselves on the wrong end of a trap game.
The Offenses
Both teams bring explosive weapons to the table on offense. For Florida this season, it has been all about the running game. The Gators currently average 7.46 yards per rush, the best in the nation. Florida features a good stable of running backs, with most of the load being carried by Malik Davis, Dameon Pierce and Nay’Quan Wright. Quarterback Emory Jones has contributed a huge portion as well. Jones has 375 rushing yards on the season, the most on the team. 144 of those came last week against Tennessee.
Florida’s other X-factor is the expected return of quarterback Anthony Richardson. Head coach Dan Mullen said earlier this week that Richardson is 100% and cleared to play. It is expected, and highly anticipated, that Richardson will return to action this week. In his two appearances, he has shown he can be one of the most explosive playmakers in the entire country.
Kentucky’s offense has big playmakers of its own. Junior running back Chris Rodriguez has rushed for 522 yards in Kentucky’s first four games. That puts him atop the SEC and tied for third nationally in total rush yards. Kentucky also features the SEC’s leading receiver in Wan’Dale Robinson. With 402 receiving yards and a pair of touchdowns, Robinson posts the big-play threat alongside Rodriguez.
The Wildcats’ offense is led by Penn State transfer Will Levis. This season Levis has passed for 902 yards and seven touchdowns, completing 65.3% of his throws. Levis has also thrown five interceptions so far. Kentucky’s turnover margin sits at -9, the second worst in the nation.
The Defenses
Florida’s defense has at times been lights out, yet at other times painful to watch. No game saw this better demonstrated than against Alabama. The Gator defense allowed touchdowns on the first three possessions and looked lost and confused. After settling in however, they held Alabama to just 10 points over the remaining three quarters.
The Gators’ pass rush is led by redshirt-senior Zachary Carter and his 4.5 sacks on the year. As a team the Gators have 16 sacks on the season, second in the SEC behind LSU and tied for fifth nationally. Alongside the pass rush, the Gators have the fifth best run defense in the SEC having allowed 106.5 per game. Florida’s weak spot has come in the secondary. With 241 pass yards allowed per game, this is the Kentucky offense’s greatest chance to hurt Florida, especially with cornerback Kaiir Elam questionable to play.
Opposite to them, the Kentucky defense has been strong in their opening games. The Wildcats defense has only allowed 17.8 points per game and only 260 yards per game, ranking them ninth in the country in total defense. Leading the team in sacks is sophomore linebacker J.J. Weaver. With his help up front, Kentucky has only allowed 87 rush yards per game, third best in the SEC.
TS Victor Advisory # 10
BULLETIN Tropical Storm Victor Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021 500 PM AST Fri Oct 01 2021 ...VICTOR LOSING ORGANIZATION OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.0N 34.3W ABOUT 745 MI...1195 KM WSW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Victor was located near latitude 12.0 North, longitude 34.3 West. Victor is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). The forward speed of the tropical storm has slowed and a turn to the northwest is anticipated by tomorrow. Victor is then expected to move northwestward over the weekend and into early next week with slight fluctuations in forward speed. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Victor is expected to gradually weaken over the next 72 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None.
Sam Advisory # 37
BULLETIN
Hurricane Sam Advisory Number 37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021
500 PM AST Fri Oct 01 2021
...CORE OF SAM FORECAST TO PASS WELL EAST OF BERMUDA TONIGHT...
...SWELLS EXPECTED TO REACH THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S. AND ATLANTIC CANADA ON SATURDAY...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.0N 61.8W
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Sam was located
near latitude 30.0 North, longitude 61.8 West. Sam is moving toward
the north near 20 mph (31 km/h). A turn toward the north-northeast,
at a slightly slower forward speed, is expected by tonight, followed
by a northeastward motion Saturday night through Monday. On the
forecast track, the center of Sam will pass well to the east of
Bermuda tonight.
Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher
gusts. Sam is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Although fluctuations in intensity are still
possible, weakening is forecast during the next couple of days.
However, Sam is expected to remain a major hurricane through at
least Saturday night.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles
(335 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 937 mb (27.67 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Sam can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning
tonight or early Saturday.
SURF: Swells generated by Sam will impact the northern Leeward
Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda during the
next couple of days. Swells are expected to reach the United States
east coast and Atlantic Canada on Saturday. These swells could
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
TS Victor Advisory # 9
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Victor Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021
1100 AM AST Fri Oct 01 2021
...VICTOR STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE...
...CENTERED SOUTH OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.5N 33.5W
ABOUT 710 MI...1140 KM WSW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Victor was
located near latitude 11.5 North, longitude 33.5 West. Victor is
moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). The
tropical storm is forecast to continue moving west-northwestward at
a slightly slower forward speed today. A turn toward the northwest
is anticipated over the weekend, and that motion will likely
continue into early next week.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today. Over
the weekend, Victor is forecast to slowly weaken.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
Sam Advisory # 36
BULLETIN
Hurricane Sam Advisory Number 36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021
1100 AM AST Fri Oct 01 2021
...SAM REMAINS A POWERFUL CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...
...CORE OF THE HURRICANE EXPECTED TO PASS WELL EAST OF BERMUDA
TONIGHT...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.4N 61.8W
ABOUT 325 MI...520 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...936 MB...27.64 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sam was located
near latitude 28.4 North, longitude 61.8 West. Sam is moving toward the north near 21 mph (33 km/h). A turn toward the north-northeast, at a slightly slower forward speed, is expected by tonight, followed by a northeastward motion Saturday night through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Sam will pass well to the east of Bermuda tonight.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher
gusts. Sam is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Although fluctuations in intensity are still possible today, weakening is forecast during the next couple of days. However, Sam is expected to remain a major hurricane through at least Saturday night.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 936 mb (27.64 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Sam can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussionunder AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning
tonight or early Saturday.
SURF: Swells generated by Sam will impact the northern Leeward
Islands and the Greater Antilles, including Puerto Rico, during the
next couple of days. Swells are expected to reach Bermuda and the
Bahamas this afternoon, and then spread to the United States east
coast and Atlantic Canada on Saturday. These swells could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
Welcome Shane!
LEXINGTON, Ky. — Jeremy Foley and Lee McGriff have had a running back-and-forth for years. McGriff played wide receiver at Florida in the early 1970s, became a Gators assistant coach in the late-’70s and eventually was placed in the Gators Sports Network radio both as color analyst not once, but twice and has been there since 2004.
Foley, who retired as UF athletic director in 2017, still teases McGriff when he sees him on chartered flights to road games.
“How long are you going to be on scholarship?”
They always share a laugh about it.
“I’m so grateful for it all,” McGriff this week. “And, yes, it feels like I’ve been on scholarship for about 50 years now.”
McGriff, though, is about to give up his free ride, but for one he anticipates will every bit as rewarding. Probably more.
When Gator fans tune into Saturday night’s radio coverage of the Florida-Kentucky game from Lexington they’ll hear the familiar voice of Mick Hubert calling play-by-play, but a different voice — Shane Matthews, the former UF quarterback and two-time Southeastern Conference Player of the Year — providing the color commentary. McGriff, who turns 68 Sunday, is taking road games off this season as part of a roll back that will allow him to attend his grandson’s football games in 2022.
If the scenario sounds familiar it’s because, well, it is. In 1994, McGriff asked out of his UF radio duties so he could watch — and cheer — for oldest son Travis during his time as a wideout for the Gators from ’95-98. McGriff’s hiatus continued when middle son Britt, also a wideout, signed to play with UCF.
He did it then to play Dad.
Now he’ll do it to play Granddad.
“Easy decision,” said McGriff, whose grandson, Keil, is currently being coached at the middle-school level by Travis. “When you experience it with your own child, it’s their time and it’s such a big deal with how invested they are. But when it’s your grandchild, now you’re watching your child be who you were. I wasn’t going to miss any of that.”
So McGriff approached the University Athletic Association with a heads-up. Where it all leads down the line is yet to be determined, but for the time being it will be Matthews, who left UF in 1992 as the SEC’s all-time leader in passing yards and touchdowns, in the seat next to Hubert, now in his 33rd season.
Matthews played 13 seasons in the NFL for six different franchises, mostly as a backup. Now 51, Matthews has a daily podcast on Facebook and has done some color commentary for college games on Touchdown Radio.
“Those are some big shoes to fill,” Matthews said of McGriff. “Hopefully, I can stay out of Mick’s way and bring something to the broadcast.”
McGriff, who will be back in the booth for UF home games this season, has offered Matthews some tips, along with some well-wishes, as he prepares for what’s next.
It’s not exactly walk-on status, but it’s not a full ride, either.
“I’m on partial scholarship now,” McGriff smiled. “I get books and a few meals.”
And glorious grandson time to make up for the rest.
TS Victor Advisory # 8
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Victor Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021
500 AM AST Fri Oct 01 2021
...VICTOR MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.7N 32.3W
ABOUT 630 MI...1015 KM WSW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Victor was
located near latitude 11.7 North, longitude 32.3 West. Victor is
moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A motion toward
the west-northwest and northwest is expected today, followed by a
northwestward motion over the eastern tropical Atlantic over the
weekend.
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening will be possible through tonight,
followed by a slow weakening trend over the weekend.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
Sam Advisory # 35A
BULLETIN
Hurricane Sam Intermediate Advisory Number 35A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021
800 AM AST Fri Oct 01 2021
...SAM REMAINS A POWERFUL CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON BERMUDA BY TONIGHT OR
EARLY SATURDAY...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.5N 61.8W
ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...934 MB...27.58 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Sam was located near
latitude 27.5 North, longitude 61.8 West. Sam is moving toward the
north-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A turn toward the north and
north-northeast, at a similar forward speed, is expected later today
and tonight, followed by a northeastward motion Saturday night
through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Sam will pass
well to the east of Bermuda tonight.
Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher
gusts. Sam is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Although fluctuations in intensity are still
possible today, weakening is forecast during the next couple of
days. However, Sam is expected to remain a major hurricane through
at least Saturday night.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 934 mb (27.58 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Sam can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning
tonight or early Saturday.
SURF: Swells generated by Sam will impact the northern Leeward
Islands and the Greater Antilles, including Puerto Rico, during the
next couple of days. Swells are expected to reach Bermuda and the
Bahamas later today, and then spread to the United States east
coast and Atlantic Canada this weekend. These swells could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.