BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nicholas Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021
400 PM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021
...NICHOLAS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
GULF COAST...
...STORM SURGE WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF
THE TEXAS COAST...
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.8N 95.5W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SSE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended eastward to Freeport,
Texas.
A Storm Surge Warning has been issued for the coast of Texas from
Port Aransas to San Luis Pass, including Aransas Bay, San Antonio
Bay, and Matagorda Bay.
A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the coast of Texas from Port
Aransas to Sargent.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Port Aransas to San Luis Pass Texas
* Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, and Matagorda Bay
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Port Aransas to Sargent Texas
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Rio Grande to Freeport Texas
* Barra el Mezquital to the U.S./Mexico border
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Rio Grande to High Island Texas
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Port Aransas to High Island Texas
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of
areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests elsewhere along the upper Texas coast should monitor the
progress of this system.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicholas was
located near latitude 22.8 North, longitude 95.5 West. Nicholas is
moving toward the north-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this
general motion is expected through tonight. A slower northward or
north-northeastward motion is forecast by late Monday or Monday
night. On the forecast track, the center of Nicholas will pass near
or just offshore the coasts of northeastern Mexico and South Texas
on Monday, and move onshore along the coast of south or central
Texas coast Monday night or early Tuesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast until Nicholas reaches the northwest Gulf
coast Monday night or early Tuesday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nicholas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages
RAINFALL: Nicholas is expected to produce storm total rainfall of
8 to 16 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches, across
portions of the middle and upper Texas coastal areas today through
the middle of the week. Across the rest of coastal Texas into
southwest Louisiana rainfall of 5 to 10 inches is expected. This
rainfall may produce areas of considerable flash and urban flooding,
especially in highly urbanized metropolitan areas. Additionally,
there is the potential for isolated minor to moderate river
flooding.
Over the northeastern portions of the Mexican state of Tamaulipas
rainfall amounts of 2 to 5 inches can be expected today into Monday.
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide
will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Port O'Connor to San Luis Pass TX including Matagorda Bay...3-5 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port O'Connor, TX...2-4 ft
San Luis Pass to High Island, TX including Galveston Bay...2-4ft
Baffin Bay, Corpus Christi Bay, Aransas Bay and San Antonio
Bay...2-4 ft
High Island, TX to Intracoastal City including Sabine Lake and
Calcasieu Lake..1-3 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas
of onshore flow, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area in northeastern Mexico and southern
Texas Monday morning, making outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. These conditions will spread northward within the
warning area through Monday night. Hurricane conditions are
possible in the Hurricane Watch area Monday night. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area by late Monday night
or early Tuesday.
TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible Monday into Monday
night across the middle and lower Texas coast.
SURF: Swells generated by Nicholas will begin affecting
portions of the northwest Gulf coast later tonight and continue
into Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.
Monthly Archives: September 2021
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T.S. Nita Advisory # 1
BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nicholas Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021 1000 AM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021 ...TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS FORMS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE COASTS OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND TEXAS... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.5N 94.8W ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM NE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM SSE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the coast of Texas from the Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Aransas. The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from Barra el Mezquital northward to the U.S./Mexico border. A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for the coast of Texas from the Mouth of the Rio Grande to High Island. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the coast of Texas from north of Port Aransas to High Island. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Aransas Texas * Barra el Mezquital to the U.S./Mexico border A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Mouth of the Rio Grande to High Island Texas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Port Aransas to High Island Texas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the upper Texas coast should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicholas was located by reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 94.8 West. Nicholas is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A slower northward or north-northeastward motion is forecast by late Monday or Monday night. On the forecast track, the center of Nicholas will pass near or just offshore the the coasts of northeastern Mexico and South Texas late Monday, and approach the south or central Texas coast Monday night or early Tuesday. Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast while Nicholas approaches the northwestern Gulf coast during the next day or so. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Nicholas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages RAINFALL: Nicholas is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches, across portions of coastal Texas into southwest Louisiana today through the middle of the week. This rainfall may produce areas of flash, urban, and isolated river flooding. Over the eastern portions of the Mexican state of Tamaulipas rainfall amounts of 2 to 5 inches can be expected today into Monday. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of the Rio Grande to High Island, TX...2-4 ft Baffin Bay, Corpus Christi Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda Bay, and Galveston Bay...2-4 The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore flow, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area in northeastern Mexico and southern Texas by Monday afternoon, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by late Monday night or early Tuesday.
Tropical Outlook, 9/12
Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sun Sep 12 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Bay of Campeche have increased overnight and are showing signs of organization. Environmental conditions are conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is expected to form later today or tonight while the system moves northwestward and then northward near the coast of northeastern Mexico. Additional development is possible through the middle of next week if the system remains over water, and interests along the western and northwestern Gulf coast should monitor the progress of this disturbance as watches may be required for portions of the coasts of northeastern Mexico and Texas later this morning or this afternoon. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently en route to investigate the system this morning. Regardless of development, the disturbance will continue to produce heavy rain across portions of southern Mexico today, which may lead to flash flooding and mudslides. By late today, heavy rain is expected to reach portions of the Texas and Louisiana coasts, with a heavy rain threat continuing across those coastal areas through the middle of the week. Localized significant rainfall amounts are possible, potentially resulting in areas of flash, urban, and isolated river flooding. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. 2. Disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms continue in association with a tropical wave located near the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are becoming less conducive for development, and the chances of tropical depression formation are decreasing while the system moves westward over the far eastern tropical Atlantic. By the middle of the week, stronger upper-level winds and marginally warm ocean temperatures are expected to limit additional development. This disturbance could bring locally heavy rain across the Cabo Verde Islands today. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. 3. A non-tropical area of low pressure is located over the far northeastern Atlantic a few hundred miles east-northeast of the Azores. This system is forecast to move south-southeastward towards warmer waters, which could allow the low to gradually acquire some tropical or subtropical characteristics during the next couple of days. After that time, the system is forecast to move inland over Portugal ending any further development chance. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. 4. Another tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa in a couple of days. Gradual development of this system is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form by the middle of the week while it moves westward across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. 5. An area of low pressure is expected to form north of the southeastern or central Bahamas in a few days resulting from a tropical wave interacting with an upper-level trough. Gradual development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression could form later this week several hundred miles southeast of the Carolinas while it moves northwestward across the western Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
Remember…..always
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Tropical Outlook, 9/11
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Sep 11 2021
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Larry, located over the Labrador Sea.
1. A tropical wave and an upper-level trough are producing a large area
of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over portions of Central
America, southeastern Mexico, and the adjacent waters of the
northwestern Caribbean Sea and southern Gulf of Mexico. Although
upper-level winds are not conducive for development currently, they
are expected to become more favorable for the system during the next
day or so. A tropical depression is likely to form on Sunday or
Monday while the disturbance moves northwestward and then northward
near the coast of northeastern Mexico. Further development will be
possible through the middle of next week if it remains over water,
and interests along the western and northwestern Gulf coast should
monitor the progress of this system.
Regardless of development, this disturbance is expected to produce
heavy rain across portions of Central America and the Yucatan
Peninsula through today which may lead to flash flooding and
mudslides. By late this weekend, heavy rain will likely reach
portions of the western Gulf coast, including coastal Texas and
Louisiana through the middle of next week. Localized significant
rainfall amounts will be possible, potentially resulting in areas of
flash and urban flooding.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
2. A tropical wave continues to produce a concentrated area of showers
and thunderstorms just southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands.
Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for gradual
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this
weekend or early next week while the system moves westward over the
far eastern Atlantic. Regardless of development, this system is
likely to bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain across the Cabo
Verde Islands later today and tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
3. Another tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of
Africa in a few days. Some development of this system will be
possible through the middle of next week while it moves westward
across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Mallard Fillmore 9/10/2021
Tropical Outlook. 9/10
Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Fri Sep 10 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Larry, located over the western Atlantic several hundred miles southwest of Newfoundland, Canada. 1. The northern portion of a tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over Honduras, the western Caribbean Sea, and portions of the Yucatan peninsula. This system is forecast to move into the Bay of Campeche and merge with a pre-existing surface trough located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by this weekend. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive to support gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form Sunday or Monday before the system moves onshore along the western Gulf of Mexico coast. Regardless of development, this disturbance is expected to produce heavy rains across portions of Central America through Saturday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. 2. A strong tropical wave is expected to emerge off of the west coast of Africa by tonight. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this weekend or early next week as the system moves west-northwestward over the far eastern Atlantic near the Cabo Verde Islands. Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
Tropical Outlook, 9/9
Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Thu Sep 9 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Larry, located over the western Atlantic a few hundred miles northeast of Bermuda, and on Tropical Depression Mindy, located offshore the southeast coast of the United States. 1. The northern portion of a tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over northeastern Honduras and the western Caribbean Sea. This system is forecast to move into the Bay of Campeche and merge with a pre-existing surface trough located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by this weekend. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive to support some gradual development, and a tropical depression could form by early next week before the system moves inland over mainland Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. 2. A strong tropical wave is expected to emerge off of the west coast of Africa in the next day or so. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form by early next week as the system moves west-northwestward over the far eastern Atlantic near the Cabo Verde Islands. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.