Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Sep 18 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Odette, located a few hundred miles southeast of 
Nantucket, Massachusetts.

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure 
located about 650 miles east-southeast of the northern Leeward 
Islands continue to show signs of organization.  However, 
satellite-derived wind data from a few hours ago indicated that the 
system does not yet have a well-defined surface circulation.  Only 
a slight increase in organization of this system would lead to the 
formation of a tropical depression or tropical storm, which is 
expected to occur later today or tonight while the low moves toward 
the west-northwest at about 15 mph.  This system is expected to be 
near the northern Leeward Islands on Monday and Tuesday, and 
interests there should monitor its progress.  Upper-level winds are 
likely to become less conducive for development when the system 
reaches the southwestern Atlantic by the early to middle part of 
next week.  Additional information on this system, including gale 
warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National 
Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

2. A low pressure system located over the far eastern Atlantic a few 
hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues 
to show some signs of organization.  Environmental conditions 
appear conducive for further development of this system, and a 
tropical depression could form over the next couple of days while 
moving toward the northwest at 10 to 15 mph to the west of the Cabo 
Verde Islands.  This system is expected to reach cooler waters and 
an area of stronger upper-level winds early next week, which could 
limit its development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Odette are issued under 
WMO header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Odette are issued under 
WMO header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Sep 18 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Odette, located a couple of hundred miles south-southeast of 
Nantucket, Massachusetts.

1. Showers and thunderstorms continue to become better organized in 
association with an area of low pressure located about 650 miles 
miles east-southeast of the northern Leeward Islands.  
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for further 
development during the next day or two, and a tropical depression 
or tropical storm is expected to form later today or tonight while 
the system moves toward the west-northwest at about 15 mph.  This 
system is expected to be near the northern Leeward Islands on 
Monday and Tuesday, and interests there should monitor its progress. 
Upper-level winds are likely to become less conducive for 
development when the system reaches the southwestern Atlantic by the 
early to middle part of next week.  Additional information on this 
system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts 
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

2. A broad area of low pressure is located over the far eastern 
Atlantic a few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands.  The 
associated shower and thunderstorm activity has become a little 
better organized since yesterday, and environmental conditions 
appear conducive for further development during the next couple of 
days.  A tropical depression could form while the system moves 
northwestward at about 10 mph to the west of the Cabo Verde 
Islands before it reaches cooler waters and stronger upper-level 
winds early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Odette are issued under 
WMO header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Odette are issued under 
WMO header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Odette Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152021
500 PM EDT Fri Sep 17 2021

...TROPICAL STORM ODETTE FORMS OFF THE U.S. MID-ATLANTIC COAST...
...FORECAST TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY SATURDAY NIGHT SOUTH OF
ATLANTIC CANADA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.7N 71.8W
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM SE OF CAPE MAY NEW JERSEY
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM SSW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Please refer to products issued by Environment Canada for Odette's 
potential impacts to Newfoundland as a post-tropical cyclone.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Odette was
located near latitude 36.7 North, longitude 71.8 West.  Odette is
moving toward the northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this  
general motion is expected to continue into tonight.  A turn toward 
the east-northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected to 
begin on Saturday and continue through Monday.  On the forecast 
track, the center of Odette will move away from the U.S. 
Mid-Atlantic coast and pass south of Atlantic Canada over the 
weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and 
Odette is expected to become a strong post-tropical low by Saturday 
night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Swells generated by Odette are affecting portions of
the United States Mid-Atlantic coast and are expected to spread
northward to portions of the U.S. Northeast and Atlantic Canada
coasts during the weekend.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Sep 17 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on 
Post-Tropical Cyclone Nicholas, located over Louisiana. 

1. Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized in association with a 
tropical wave and broad area of low pressure located about 1100 
miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.  However, 
environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for 
development during the next few days, and a tropical depression 
could still form over the weekend.  This system is expected to move 
westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the tropical 
Atlantic during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

2. A broad area of low pressure is located about 100 miles southeast 
of the Outer Banks of North Carolina.  Although the circulation of 
this system has become a little better defined since yesterday, the 
associated showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized and 
located mainly well to the east of the center.   Environmental 
conditions are becoming more conducive for development, and a 
tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or so 
while the system moves northward to north-northeastward off the 
southeast and mid-Atlantic U.S. coasts.   Regardless of development, 
this system could bring high surf to portions of the southeast and 
mid-Atlantic U.S. coasts through this weekend.  Additional 
information on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in 
High Seas Forecasts issued by the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

3. Disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms over the far eastern 
tropical Atlantic are associated with a tropical wave located a few 
hundred miles southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands.  Environmental 
conditions are forecast to be only marginally conducive, and 
development, if any, of this system should be slow to occur over the 
next few days while the system moves west-northwestward to 
northwestward over the far eastern Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Public advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center on 
Post-Tropical Cyclone Nicholas can be found under AWIPS header 
TCPAT4, WMO header WTNT34 KWNH, and on the web at 
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov or hurricanes.gov

High Seas Forecasts for the system off the Outer Banks of North 
Carolina issued by the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center can be found 
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at 
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Sep 16 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on 
Post-Tropical Cyclone Nicholas, located near the central coast of 
Louisiana. 

1. Showers and thunderstorms have become slightly less organized in 
association with a tropical wave located a little more than 800 
miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.  However,  
environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for 
development during the next few days, and a tropical depression is 
still likely to form late this week or this weekend.  This system 
is expected to move westward to west-northwestward across the 
tropical Atlantic during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

2. Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased this morning over 
the eastern portion of a broad area of low pressure located about 
250 miles south-southeast of the Outer Banks of North Carolina.  
Environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for 
development, and a tropical depression is still likely to form 
during the next day or two while the system moves northward to 
north-northeastward off the southeast and mid-Atlantic U.S. coasts. 
Regardless of development, this system could bring high surf to 
portions of the southeast and mid-Atlantic U.S. coasts later this 
week and this weekend. Additional information on this system, 
including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued 
by the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.  An Air Force Reserve 
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance  
this afternoon. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

3. Showers and thunderstorms over the far eastern tropical Atlantic 
are associated with a tropical wave that will move off the west 
coast of Africa today. Environmental conditions are forecast to be 
marginally conducive for some gradual development over the next few 
days while the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward over 
the far eastern Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Public advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center on 
Post-Tropical Cyclone Nicholas can be found under AWIPS header 
TCPAT4, WMO header WTNT34 KWNH, and on the web at 
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov or hurricanes.gov

High Seas Forecasts for the system off the Outer Banks of North 
Carolina issued by the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center can be found 
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at 
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Sep 15 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Depression Nicholas, located near the Texas/Louisiana border. 

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area 
located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde 
Islands continue to show signs of organization.  Environmental 
conditions are expected to remain conducive for development, and a 
tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of 
days.  This system is expected to move westward to 
west-northwestward across the tropical Atlantic during the next 
several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

2. A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles northeast 
of the central Bahamas is producing a large area of disorganized 
showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions appear 
marginally conducive for development, and a tropical depression is 
likely to form during the next couple of days while the system moves 
north-northwestward to northward off the southeast U.S. coast. 
Regardless of development, this system could bring high surf to 
portions of the southeast and mid-Atlantic U.S. coasts later this 
week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

3. A tropical wave is expected to emerge off the west coast of 
Africa in a day or two. Thereafter, environmental conditions are 
forecast to be conducive for development while the system moves 
generally west-northwestward to northwestward over the 
far eastern Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Public advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center on 
Tropical Depression Nicholas can be found under AWIPS header TCPAT4, 
WMO header WTNT34 KWNH, and on the web at 
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov. 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Sep 14 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Nicholas, located over the upper Texas coastal plain near 
Houston.

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area 
located a few hundred miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde 
Islands continues to show signs of organization. Environmental 
conditions are expected to remain conducive for development, and a  
tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of 
days while system moves generally westward at about 15 mph across 
the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

2. A trough of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles 
northeast of the southeastern Bahamas is producing a large area 
of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental 
conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development 
during the next few days, and a tropical depression could form 
while the system moves north-northwestward to northward across the 
western Atlantic. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.