TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Elsa Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 1100 AM AST Fri Jul 02 2021 ...CENTER OF ELSA PASSING NEAR ST. VINCENT AND ST. LUCIA... ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS SPREADING THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.4N 61.2W ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM N OF ST. VINCENT ABOUT 675 MI...1090 KM ESE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Hurricane Warning is now in effect for the southern portion of Haiti from Port Au Prince to the southern border with the Dominican Republic. The Meteorological Service of the Dominican Republic has issued a Hurricane Watch for the south coast of the Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque to the border with Haiti, a Tropical Storm Warning for the south coast from Cabo Engano to the border with Haiti, and a Tropical Storm Watch for the north coast from Cabo Engano to Bahia de Manzanillo. The Government of Jamaica has issued a Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning for Jamaica. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * St. Lucia * St. Vincent and the Grenadines * Southern portion of Haiti from Port Au Prince to the southern border with the Dominican Republic A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Barbados * Martinique * Dominica * The southern coast of Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the border with Haiti * The coast of Haiti north of Port Au Prince * Jamaica A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * South coast of the Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque to the border with Haiti * Jamaica A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Grenada and its dependencies * Saba and Sint Eustatius * North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Bahia de Manzanillo A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case in the next few hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands, Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Cuba, and the Cayman Islands should monitor the progress of Elsa. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Elsa was located near latitude 13.4 North, longitude 61.2 West. Elsa is moving toward the west-northwest near 29 mph (46 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days, with some decrease in forward speed expected Sunday night. On the forecast track, Elsa will move away from the Windward Islands during the next several hours, move across the eastern Caribbean Sea later today and tonight, and move near the southern coast of Hispaniola late Saturday or Saturday night. By Sunday, Elsa is forecast to move near Jamaica and portions of eastern Cuba, and move near portions of central and western Cuba Sunday night and early Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Some decrease in winds is possible on Monday as Elsa interacts with Cuba. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The Hewanorra Airport on St. Lucia recently reported sustained winds of 46 mph (74 km/h) and a wind gust of 79 mph (127 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area in the Windward Islands for the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the Windward and southern Leeward Islands within the tropical storm warning areas and are possible in the tropical storm watch areas later today. Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area in Haiti by late Saturday and are possible in the hurricane watch area in the Dominican Republic by late Saturday. Hurricane conditions are possible on Jamaica late Saturday or Sunday. STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds in the hurricane warning area in the Windward Islands and 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the southern coast of Hispaniola. RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches today across the Windward and southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados. This rain may lead to isolated flash flooding and mudslides. Over Puerto Rico, rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with localized amounts of 5 inches is expected late today into Saturday. This rain may lead to isolated flash flooding and minor river flooding, along with the potential for mudslides. Across portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica, rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is possible Saturday into Sunday. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward across the Caribbean Sea during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.