670 
ABNT20 KNHC 211740
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Jul 21 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad trough of low pressure associated with a decaying frontal 
boundary over Mississippi and Alabama is forecast to move offshore 
of the southeastern United States coastline by the end of this week. 
Environmental conditions are forecast to be marginally conducive for 
some gradual development over the weekend into early next week while 
the system meanders offshore of the coasts of South Carolina, 
Georgia, and northeastern Florida.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Jul 15 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower activity has increased slightly since yesterday in 
association with a non-tropical area of low pressure, located 
several hundred miles south-southwest of Cape Race, Newfoundland. 
However, environmental conditions are only marginally conducive for 
development while the low moves little through tonight.  On Friday, 
the low is expected to accelerate northeastward and open up into a 
trough of low pressure to the south of Atlantic Canada.  Additional 
information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts 
issued by the National Weather Service.  
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be 
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and 
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Jul 13 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Satellite derived surface wind data indicate that the non-tropical 
area of low pressure, located several hundred miles southeast of 
Cape Race, Newfoundland, is producing winds below gale force and 
limited showers and thunderstorms.  Although environmental 
conditions are only marginally favorable during the next couple of  
days, some slight development is possible as it drifts generally 
southward over warmer waters.  Toward the end of the week, the low 
is expected to accelerate north-northeastward and open up into a 
trough of low pressure in response to an approaching frontal system 
moving off of the New England coast.  
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 30A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052021
200 PM EDT Wed Jul 07 2021

...ELSA INLAND AND WEAKENING OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.3N 83.5W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM W OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

All warnings have been discontinued south of the Suwannee River, 
Florida. 

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Florida from the Suwannee River to the Aucilla River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Florida from the Suwannee River to the Ochlockonee 
River
* Mouth of St. Marys River, Georgia to Little River Inlet, South
Carolina

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Little River Inlet, South Carolina to Sandy Hook, New
Jersey
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach and the tidal Potomac south
of Cobb Island
* Delaware Bay south of Slaughter Beach

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning
Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests in southeastern New England and the Canadian Maritimes
should monitor the progress of Elsa.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located near latitude 30.3 North, longitude 83.5 West.  Elsa is
moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h).  A turn toward 
the north-northeast is expected this evening, followed by a faster 
northeastward motion by late Thursday.  On the forecast track, Elsa 
will move over Georgia tonight, over South Carolina early on 
Thursday, over North Carolina later on Thursday, and move near or 
over the mid-Atlantic coast on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Continued weakening is expected through 
tomorrow as Elsa moves over land.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center. 

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue along the Gulf coast
of Florida in the warning area today.  Tropical storm conditions are
expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Georgia coast
by late today or tonight and along the South Carolina coast tonight
and early Thursday.  Tropical storm conditions are possible in the
watch area in the mid-Atlantic and northeastern states by Thursday
night and Friday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Suwannee River to Aucilla River...2 to 4 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Suwannee River including Tampa Bay...1 
to 3 ft
Aucilla River to Ochlockonee River...1 to 3 ft
Mouth of St. Marys River to South Santee River...1 to 2 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
and impacts the rest of this week:

Across western and northern portions of the Florida Peninsula...3
to 6 inches with localized maximum storm totals up to 9 inches
today, which may result in considerable flash and urban flooding,
along with minor to isolated moderate river flooding.

Across portions of southeast Georgia and the Lowcountry of South
Carolina, 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals up to 6 inches
will be possible, which may result in considerable flash and urban
flooding.

Across eastern North Carolina into southeastern Virginia...1 to 3
inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches tonight through Thursday
night, which could lead to isolated flash and urban flooding.

Across the Northeast and New England, 1 to 3 inches with isolated
totals up to 5 inches Thursday into Friday will be possible. This
could lead to isolated flash and urban flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight across
northern Florida and southeastern Georgia into eastern South
Carolina.  The tornado threat should shift to the eastern Carolinas
and far southeast Virginia on Thursday.

SURF: Swells will continue to affect portions of the west coast of
Florida through today.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office for more details.

Tropical Storm Elsa Local Statement Advisory Number 30
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL  AL052021
1116 AM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021

This product covers Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia

**CENTER OF ELSA MAKING LANDFALL IN TAYLOR COUNTY ALONG THE NORTH 
FLORIDA GULF COAST** 

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - The Tropical Storm Warning has been cancelled for Central 
      Marion and Eastern Marion

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Baker, Bradford, 
      Brantley, Clinch, Coastal Camden, Coastal Glynn, Eastern 
      Alachua, Echols, Gilchrist, Hamilton, Inland Camden, Inland 
      Glynn, Inland Nassau, Northeastern Charlton, Northern Columbia, 
      Northern Ware, Pierce, Southern Columbia, Southern Ware, 
      Suwannee, Union, Wayne, Western Alachua, Western Charlton, and 
      Western Marion

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 130 miles west-southwest of Jacksonville FL or about 120 
      miles southwest of Waycross GA
    - 29.9N 83.6W
    - Storm Intensity 65 mph
    - Movement North or 360 degrees at 14 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Tropical Storm Elsa will continue to track inland across the Suwanee
Valley and across southeast Georgia through this evening. Rainbands 
from Elsa will continue to increase across southeast Georgia through 
the afternoon. Sustained tropical storm force winds will overspread 
portions of the Suwannee River Valley focused over counties along and 
west of Interstate 75 across northeast Florida, then the envelope of 
tropical storm force winds will progress northeast across portions of 
northeast Florida and southeast Georgia through this evening. The 
greatest widespread hazard from Elsa will be the potential for flooding
rainfall. Storm total rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches with locally 
higher amounts up to 9 inches are possible. The tornado threat will 
continue across northeast Florida this morning and expand across 
portions of southeast Georgia through the day. Hazardous beach 
conditions including frequent rip currents and rough surf will persist 
through Wednesday evening.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* FLOODING RAIN:
Potential impacts from the flooding rain are still unfolding across
portions of northeast Florida and southeast Georgia. Remain well
guarded against dangerous flood waters having possible limited to 
significant impacts. If realized, these impacts include:
    - Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in 
      multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may 
      become dangerous rivers. Flood control systems and barriers may 
      become stressed.
    - Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple
      communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed
      away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes.
      Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with
      underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous. Many
      road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out.

* WIND:
Potential impacts from the main wind event are now unfolding across
portions of northeast Florida and southeast Georgia. Remain well
sheltered from dangerous wind having possible limited impacts. If 
realized, these impacts include:
    - Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage 
      to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings 
      experiencing window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile 
      homes damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight 
      objects become dangerous projectiles.
    - Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater 
      numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several 
      fences and roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban 
      or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways, and access 
      routes impassable.
    - Scattered power and communications outages, but more prevalent 
      in areas with above ground lines.

* TORNADOES:
Potential impacts from tornadoes are still unfolding across Northeast
Florida and Southeast Georgia. Remain well braced against a tornado
event having additional limited impacts. If realized, these impacts 
include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution 
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power 
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys 
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned, 
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees 
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats 
      pulled from moorings.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Do not enter evacuated areas until officials have given the all clear
to return.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to stay inside and away from windows. Listen for
updates and be ready in case you lose electrical power. Keep a battery-
powered radio, charged cell phone and flashlight handy.

If a tornado warning is issued for your area, quickly move to the 
safest place within your shelter. Protect your head and body.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number  30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052021
1100 AM EDT Wed Jul 07 2021

...CENTER OF ELSA MAKING LANDFALL IN TAYLOR COUNTY ALONG THE 
NORTH FLORIDA GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.9N 83.6W
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM NNW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM WSW OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

All warnings south of Aripeka, Florida, have been discontinued.

The hurricane warning along the west coast of Florida has been
changed to a Tropical Storm Warning.

The Storm Surge Watch for the Florida Gulf coast has been
discontinued.

The Tropical Storm Watch has been extended northward along the
mid-Atlantic coast to Sandy Hook, New Jersey, including the
Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach, the tidal Potomac south
of Cobb Island, and Delaware Bay south of Slaughter Beach.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Florida from Aripeka to the Aucilla River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Florida from Aripeka to Ochlockonee River
* Mouth of St. Marys River, Georgia to Little River Inlet, South
Carolina

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Little River Inlet, South Carolina to Sandy Hook, New 
Jersey
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach and the tidal Potomac south
of Cobb Island
* Delaware Bay south of Slaughter Beach

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning
Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests in southeastern New England and the Canadian Maritimes
should monitor the progress of Elsa.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was 
located near latitude 29.9 North, longitude 83.6 West.  Elsa is 
moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h), and a generally 
northward motion is expected to continue through this afternoon.  A 
turn toward the north-northeast is expected late this afternoon or 
tonight, followed by a faster northeastward motion by late Thursday. 
On the forecast track, Elsa will continue to move inland into 
Florida this afternoon. The storm should then move across the 
southeastern and mid-Atlantic United States through Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is expected as Elsa moves further inland this 
afternoon into tomorrow.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center. An unofficial weather station at Horseshoe Beach, 
Florida recently measured a sustained wind of 62 mph (100 km/h) 
gusting to 71 mph (114 km/h). Earlier, a C-MAN station at Cedar 
Key, Florida measured a sustained wind of 44 mph (71 km/h) gusting 
to 59 mph (95 km/h). 

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue along the Gulf coast 
of Florida in the warning area today.  Tropical storm conditions are 
expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Georgia coast 
by late today or tonight and along the South Carolina coast tonight 
and early Thursday.  Tropical storm conditions are possible in the 
watch area in the mid-Atlantic and northeastern states by Thursday 
night and Friday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Aripeka, FL to Aucilla River...2 to 4 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Aripeka, FL including Tampa Bay...1 to 
3 ft
Aucilla River to Ochlockonee River...1 to 3 ft
Mouth of St. Marys River to South Santee River, SC...1 to 2 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
and impacts the rest of this week:

Across western and northern portions of the Florida Peninsula...3
to 6 inches with localized maximum storm totals up to 9 inches
today, which may result in considerable flash and urban flooding,
along with minor to isolated moderate river flooding.

Across portions of southeast Georgia and the Lowcountry of South
Carolina, 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals up to 6 inches
will be possible, which may result in considerable flash and urban
flooding.

Across eastern North Carolina into southeastern Virginia...1 to 3
inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches tonight through Thursday
night, which could lead to isolated flash and urban flooding.

Across the Northeast and New England, 1 to 3 inches with isolated
totals up to 5 inches Thursday into Friday will be possible. This
could lead to isolated flash and urban flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight across 
northern Florida and southeastern Georgia into eastern South 
Carolina.  The tornado threat should shift to the eastern Carolinas 
and far southeast Virginia on Thursday.

SURF: Swells will continue to affect portions of the west coast of 
Florida through today.  These swells are likely to cause 
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office for more details.