Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Wed Jun 16 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue over the Bay of Campeche and southern Mexico in association with a broad low pressure area. This system will move little today and tonight, and little if any development is expected during that time due to interaction with land. However, the broad disturbance should begin to move northward on Thursday, and a tropical depression is likely to form by late Thursday or on Friday when the low moves across the western Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall will continue over portions of Central America and southern Mexico during the next several days. Heavy rains should also begin to affect portions of the northern Gulf Coast on Friday. Please consult products from your local meteorological service for more information. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chan
Monthly Archives: June 2021
6/15 Tropical Outlook
Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 200 PM EDT Tue Jun 15 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Bill, located a few hundred miles south-southeast of Halifax, Canada. 1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue over the Bay of Campeche and southern Mexico in association with a broad low pressure area. This system is expected to move little during the next day or two, and any development should be slow to occur during that time period due to its close proximity to land. However, the disturbance should begin to move northward by Thursday, and a tropical depression is likely to form late in the week when the low moves across the central and northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall will continue over portions of Central America and southern Mexico during the next several days. Heavy rains could also begin to impact portions of the northern Gulf Coast on Friday. Please consult products from your local meteorological service for more information. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. 2. Shower activity is limited in association with a tropical wave located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Development, if any, should be slow to occur during the next couple of days while the wave moves westward. Thereafter, a combination of dry air aloft and strong upper-level winds should end the chances of formation when the wave reaches the central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
Our Greatest Generation
COMMENTARY
The Tin Can Sailors of World War II
James Hornfischer, the historian who chronicled these naval heroes, dies at 55.
By Andrew Odell
James D. Hornfischer, a historian of the U.S. Navy, died June 2 at 55. The costs borne by Navy sailors in World War II seldom receive prime billing in history courses, but amid so much fresh attention on the Pacific, more Americans should thumb through Hornfischer’s work about the Navy’s “finest hour,” off the coast of Samar on an October morning in 1944.
Hornfischer’s “The Last Stand of the Tin Can Sailors” (2004) is dedicated to about two hours of action in the Battle of Leyte Gulf, mostly on “tin cans,” the Navy term of endearment for destroyers. The scene on Oct. 25 was grim. Adm. Bill Halsey and his carriers were lured away by a decoy, and the 13 ships of “Taffy 3” were exposed to the largest force of surface combatants the Japanese navy had ever assembled. The Navy’s tin cans, as Hornfischer said in a 2004 speech, “fought in broad daylight at point-blank range against Japanese battleships 35 to 60 times their size.”Hornfischer’s work isn’t a recitation of ship movements; it is about “the machinists, and the snipes in the engine rooms, and the gunners and the men in the handling rooms.” Best known is Ernest Evans, the Oklahoma-born captain of the USS Johnston. The Johnston, without waiting for orders, charged across miles of open sea, under withering fire, to fire a torpedo salvo and cripple the heavy cruiser Kumano.The ship would have been “entitled to call it a day,” as Hornfischer said in another speech, in 2014, but Evans had “a different understanding of his duty” and turned the heavily damaged Johnston back to engage Japanese ships with gunfire. His spirit: “Our lives don’t matter,” but the enemy “will not catch the carriers whose protection is our duty.”
Commanding the destroyer escort USS Samuel B. Roberts was reservist Lt. Cmdr. Bob Copeland, called away from his career as a lawyer. (Vermont Royster, editor of these pages from 1958 through 1971, interrupted his reporting career to command a tin can in the Pacific.) Copeland charged his diminutive ship into the fight, at great cost. Hornfischer tells of 18- year-old Seaman Second Class Jackson McCaskill, who, after a shell hit a boiler, calmly worked to secure the hot steam while his feet were burned to the bone.Both the Johnston and the Roberts would sink.
bone.Both the Johnston and the Roberts would sink. Copeland remembered seeing Evans, clothes blown off and short two fingers. Evans “turned a little and waved his hand.” Sailors spent days on rafts fighting off sharks drawn to the bloody mess. “On that raft,” Copeland said, “we were just 49 very wretched human beings,” and “it made no difference to us whether a man’s parents had been rich or poor” or whether someone was “black, brown or white.”
Evans posthumously became the first Native American in the Navy to win the Medal of Honor. Earlier this year, the Johnston was discovered in the Philippine Sea, 21,000 feet down, her hull still bearing the ship’s number in white paint: 557.
It’s no secret that interest in military service has been on the decline. But maybe more would be tempted if they encountered Hornfischer’s account of, as he put it, “how Americans handle having their backs pushed to the wall.”
Lt. Odell is a Navy pilot.
6/15 Tropical Update
Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Tue Jun 15 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Bill, located more than 300 miles east-northeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. 1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue over the Bay of Campeche in association with a broad low pressure area. Gradual development of this disturbance is possible during the next couple of days while it meanders near the coast of Mexico. The system should begin to move northward by midweek, and a tropical depression is likely to form late in the week when the low moves across the central or northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible over portions of Central America and southern Mexico during the next several days. Heavy rains could also begin to impact portions of the northern Gulf Coast on Friday. Please consult products from your local meteorological service for more information. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. 2. A tropical wave located several hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large area of cloudiness and disorganized showers. Any development of this system should be slow to occur during the next few days. Thereafter, a combination of dry air aloft and strong upper-level winds will limit chances of formation while the wave moves over the central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Tropical Storm Bill Advisory # 4
BULLETIN Tropical Storm Bill Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022021 500 AM AST Tue Jun 15 2021 ...BILL STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE... ...EXPECTED TO BE A SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL STORM... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...38.5N 67.2W ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM SSW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 31 MPH...50 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bill was located near latitude 38.5 North, longitude 67.2 West. Bill is moving rapidly toward the northeast near 31 mph (50 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today, followed by gradual weakening tonight and Wednesday morning when Bill will be moving over colder water. The system is forecast to become a post-tropical low by tonight and dissipate on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None.
6/14 Advisory #2 – Strengthening.
BULLETIN Tropical Depression Two Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022021 500 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021 ...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.5N 72.0W ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM E OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Two was located near latitude 35.5 North, longitude 72.0 West. The depression is moving toward the northeast near 18 mph, and this general motion is expected through Wednesday with increasing forward speed. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The depression is expected to become a tropical storm by tonight and could continue to strengthen on Tuesday. The system is expected to become a post-tropical low and dissipate on Wednesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None
Tropical Depression 2 Forms
BULLETIN Tropical Depression Two Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022021 1100 AM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFFSHORE OF NORTH CAROLINA... ...HEADING AWAY FROM THE UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.0N 73.7W ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM E OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Two was located near latitude 35.0 North, longitude 73.7 West. The depression is moving toward the northeast near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this general motion is expected through Wednesday with increasing forward speed. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The depression is expected to become a tropical storm by tonight and could continue to strengthen on Tuesday. The system should begin to weaken by Tuesday night and is expected to dissipate on Wednesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None
Large Rate Increases Coming.
City Commission votes to raise electric rates by 7%
June 13, 2021
BY JENNIFER CABRERA
At the June 7 Gainesville City Commission Special Meeting, Gainesville Regional Utilities (GRU) requested a 7% electric rate increase, saying it was the equivalent of 3% for last year (the City Commission decided not to increase rates last year during the pandemic), 3% for this year, and “1% for the Deerhaven 2 conversion.” GRU also requested a 5% increase in wastewater rates and asked the commission to approve a resolution to reduce the General Fund Transfer (GFT – the amount of money transferred from GRU to the City’s General Government budget) by $2 million a year through 2027. In addition, GRU requested 3% electricity and 5% wastewater rate increases through 2027 and a 3% water increase for FY22.
The General Government (GG) budget presentation followed the GRU budget presentation, starting with the caveat that the GG budget didn’t take into account the future reductions in GFT or the increases in the City’s utility bills. The City’s budget presentation recommended a $12/year increase per unit in the Fire Assessment Fee, from $133 to $145.
At current property tax levels, the increment requests for the GG budget (not including increments from City Commissioners) lead to a projected deficit of $3.7 million in FY 2022 and a $5.2 million deficit in FY 2023. The electric and wastewater rate increases will add to those deficits because General Government has to pay those rates as a customer. The projected budget also doesn’t include increased revenue from a utility tax increase, which would reduce the deficits. The presentation estimated that a 0.5 mill increase in property taxes (about a 9.4% increase on top of increases caused by higher property values) would be required to make up a deficit of $3.86 million.
Mayor Lauren Poe said that some of the budget items and expenses “could potentially be addressed through the American Rescue Plan (ARP), depending on what the commission decides to do with that money.”
Commissioner increment requests are due this Monday to the Office of Equity and Inclusion. The office will do an analysis and send the results back to the City Commission after their break, but the Commission is required to set the tentative millage (which can be reduced but not increased after it is set) at their first meeting back, on July 15. City Manager Lee Feldman said that made his “head hurt” because the requests go first to the Office of Equity and Inclusion, and he doesn’t even know when his office will get a chance to look at them to see how they affect the budget.
Utility bill assistance: How to “address the challenges with our low-income neighbors and their utility bills”
Given that the electric rate increase will be at least 7%, the Commission then turned to discussing ways they could “address the challenges with our low-income neighbors and their utility bills.” The Policy Research Team presented a report on various options for utility bill assistance.
GRU already has several programs, including an automatic 7-day grace period plus an additional automatic 7-day extension. GRU also has Project Share, in which voluntary donations from GRU customers and employees can be used to help the elderly and disabled in paying their utility bills. Those funds are distributed by community outreach agencies. GRU also works with customers to make arrangements to pay their balance after a disconnection and referral to collections (active accounts are not referred to collections). GRU currently has 561 active arrangements for repayment of about $326,000 in prior debt. GRU also has a low-income energy efficiency program that helps low-income customers with home improvements that reduce their energy use. GRU offers energy audits, and they offer personal hardship extensions. A number of community organizations also offer utility payment assistance, and there are also federal and state programs that assist with utility bill payments.
Commissioner Harvey Ward pointed out that ARP funds from the City can only go to City customers, so he wants to “strongly encourage [the County] to use their ARP to do the same thing for GRU customers outside the city limits.”
“GRU was asked to bring back a lot of non-discretionary and discretionary cuts. And a large portion of the General Government budget were increments, increases.” – Commissioner David Arreola
Commissioner David Arreola pointed out that there was a “stark difference” in the discussions of the GRU and GG budgets. “GRU was asked to bring back a lot of non-discretionary and discretionary cuts. And a large portion of the General Government budget were increments, increases.”
Poe said his recommendations for spending ARP money would focus on “the sort of permanent fix, getting into people’s homes and apartments, and fixing those, you know, let’s call them big leaks… And I really am going to be challenging our staff as well as our community, all those folks that have talked to us about apprenticeship programs and using local labor, to work together, to find a plan to identify, analyze, come up with solutions, and then implement solutions over a 24-month period. It’s going to be a huge lift, but go out and get as many done as we can and create a permanent solution. That’s one big pot of money.”
Poe also said he wanted to build into the General Government budget a recurring source of funds, probably from the utility tax, to provide assistance to customers that “every month are having trouble paying their bills… Of course… who is going to be adversely affected by this, it’s sort of everyone, because it lowers GRU revenue, but I’d rather have that problem than continuing… with this… recurring problem of homes… that just are going to be high-utility homes until they get fixed.”
Commissioner Adrian Hayes-Santos proposed several ways to increase GG revenue, including doubling neighborhood parking fees, “looking at free parking downtown,” and removing neighborhood parking spaces and adding metered parking spaces. On the expense side, he talked about adding additional employees in finance and community engagement, plus a greenway study and a lighting study.
Commissioner Gail John moved for staff to come back at the July 15 meeting with data for eligibility requirements for recurring assistance, a source of potential funds for recurring assistance, and as much data as possible about the efficacy of existing programs. That motion died for lack of a second.
Arreola moved that they accept GRU’s recommendations (increase electric rates by 7% for FY22, increase wastewater rates by 5% per year for FY22, bring back a resolution to reduce the GFT by $2 million per year through 2027, bring back a rate ordinance for FY23-FY27 that would include a 3% increase in electric rates and 5% increase in wastewater rates per year) and include the data request from Johnson. Johnson seconded the motion. Then, at Poe’s request, Johnson added a request that staff bring back information on a framework for a program to help people lower their utility bills by improving the homes of high energy users.
Feldman told the Commission that “a sustained $2 million [GFT] reduction every year until 2027 is going to be unsustainable for the General Government side and will have some negative consequences, as well, both in the services that you want to provide and/or fiscal stability.”
In public comment on the motion, Nathan Skop asked the Commission to consider the solution he has offered – cut their spending, reduce the GFT, don’t increase electric rates, ask GRU to defer Advanced Metering Infrastructure, and increase property taxes to make up the difference. He pointed out that subsidizing utility bills for some customers increases the costs to other customers, whose bills are increased to pay for the subsidies.
“Cut your bloated budget and get to the place where you stop raising GRU bills.” – Debbie Martinez
Debbie Martinez said the Commission should “cut your bloated budget and get to the place where you stop raising GRU bills. Sky-high GRU bills are not due to leaky homes. It is a result of the City Commission getting a grossly overpriced utility contract for power we do not need…. You killed the GRU goose that laid the golden egg, and now you want to blame leaky buildings, rather than looking into the mirror and remembering members of this City Commission are to blame.”
Armando Grundy-Gomes reiterated that the GG side didn’t bring back budget decrements as requested in a previous meeting. “You… said no, we’re going to come back with increases and 17 new full-time positions… Another point that seems to be missing is that crime is up. Fires are not up. But 17 new positions for firefighters. For what? If anything, that needs to translate to GPD.”
Commissioners split off the 7% electric rate increase into a separate motion and voted on the rest of Arreola’s motion, which passed 5-1, with Hayes-Santos in dissent and Commissioner Desmon Duncan-Walker absent. The vote for the 7% electric rate increase was also 5-1, with Johnson in dissent.
6/14 Tropical Weather
Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Satellite, radar and surface observations indicate that a well-defined low pressure system located about 90 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, is acquiring more tropical characteristics. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form later today or tonight. This system is expected to move northeastward away from the United States and move over colder waters south of Nova Scotia on Wednesday, ending any opportunity for further development by midweek. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. 2. Showers and thunderstorms located over the Bay of Campeche are associated with a broad low pressure area. Gradual development of this disturbance is possible during the next couple of days while it meanders near the coast of Mexico, and a tropical depression could form late in the week when the system moves northward into the central Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible over portions of Central America and southern Mexico during the next several days. Please consult products from your local meteorological service for more information. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. 3. A strong tropical wave just offshore of west Africa is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Some development of this system is possible during the next few days before a combination of dry air aloft and strong upper-level winds limit any chance of formation while the wave is over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean late week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Investigation 92L Forms
SUN 06/13/2021 – 12PM EDT
Invest 92L has been designated in the southern Gulf of Mexico by the NHC. There’s a 50% chance of development as it slowly drifts north in the Gulf this week. Residents along the Gulf coast should closely monitor the progress of this system. No immediate threat to land at this time.
