BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Eta Advisory Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
1000 PM EST Sat Nov 07 2020
…ETA FORECAST TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, FLASH FLOODS AND
STRONG WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA AND FLORIDA…
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST…0300 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…20.7N 79.9W
ABOUT 140 MI…220 KM WSW OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
ABOUT 355 MI…570 KM S OF MIAMI FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…65 MPH…100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 13 MPH…20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…991 MB…29.27 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the East Coast of
Florida from north of Jupiter Inlet to the Brevard/Volusia County
line and for the West Coast of Florida from north of Bonita Beach
to Englewood.
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the West Coast of
Florida from north of Englewood to Anna Maria Island.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* Florida coast from Golden Beach to Bonita Beach, including
Biscayne Bay
* Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, including
Florida Bay
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Florida coast from Deerfield Beach to Bonita Beach
* Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, including
Florida Bay
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus,
Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, and Matanzas
* Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island,
Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New
Providence
* Florida coast from Brevard/Volusia County line to Englewood
including Florida Bay
* Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas
* Lake Okeechobee
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del
Rio, and the Isle of Youth
* Florida coast from north of Englewood to Anna Maria Island.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests elsewhere in Cuba and the Florida peninsula should
monitor the progress of this system as additional Tropical Storm
Watches or Warnings could be required for some of these areas
on Sunday.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 1000 PM EST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was
located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 79.9 West. Eta is moving
toward the northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the north
and northwest at a slower forward speed is expected on Sunday and
Sunday night, followed by a westward motion on Monday. On the
forecast track, the center of Eta will cross central Cuba tonight,
approach south Florida and the Florida Keys on Sunday, pass near or
over south Florida and the Florida Keys Sunday night and Monday and
be over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some weakening is possible after landfall in Cuba
overnight, but Eta is forecast to re-strengthen later on
Sunday and could be near hurricane strength as it approaches and
moves near or over Florida.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the
web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.
RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Thursday morning:
Jamaica: An additional 2 to 4 inches (50 to 125 mm), isolated
maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).
The Cayman Islands into portions of Cuba: an additional 5 to 10
inches (200 to 400 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 25 inches
(650 mm).
The Bahamas and portions of the central and southern Florida
peninsula, including the Keys: 6 to 12 inches (150 to 300 mm),
isolated maximum totals of 18 inches (450 mm).
Significant, life-threatening flash and river flooding will be
possible in Cuba, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain.
Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for the Cayman
Islands, Jamaica, the Bahamas, and Southern Florida. Minor to
isolated moderate river flooding is also possible for Central
Florida.
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of Cuba
near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…
Bonita Beach, FL to Golden Beach, FL including Biscayne Bay…2-4 ft
Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas including Florida
Bay…2-4 ft
Flagler/Volusia County Line to Altamaha Sound…2-3 ft
Golden Beach to Flagler/Volusia County Line…1-2 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning areas
in Cuba overnight and Sunday, in the northwestern Bahamas on Sunday,
and in south Florida and the Florida Keys Sunday and Sunday night.
Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area in
Florida Sunday night and Monday. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the tropical storm watch area in Cuba tonight and
in the watch area in Florida by early Monday.
TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur Sunday evening and Sunday
night over south Florida and the Keys.
SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the Cayman
Islands, Jamaica, the southern coast of Cuba, the northwestern
Bahamas, and southern Florida and the Florida Keys during the next
couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.