Hurricane Zeta Advisory #9

BULLETIN
Hurricane Zeta Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL282020
700 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020

...LANDFALL OF ZETA EXPECTED IN A FEW HOURS WITH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS AND A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE...
...HURRICANE WARNINGS EXTENDED SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD
ALONG THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.9N 86.6W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning from South
of Tulum to Punta Allen Mexico on the east coast of Yucatan, and
from west of Dzilam to Progreso Mexico on the north coast.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Allen to Progreso Mexico
* Cozumel

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to Navarre Florida
* Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Vermilion Bay, Pensacola Bay, and
Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida
* West of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 6
hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Zeta was located
by NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft data near latitude 19.9 North,
longitude 86.6 West.  Zeta is moving toward the northwest near 12
mph (19 km/h).  A northwestward motion with some increase in forward
speed is expected over the next day or so, followed by a turn toward
the north Tuesday night. A faster northward to north-northeastward
motion is forecast on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center
of Zeta will move over the northern Yucatan Peninsula tonight, move
over the southern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, and approach the
northern Gulf Coast in the watch area on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Some additional strengthening is possible before Zeta makes
landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula.  Some weakening is likely while
Zeta moves over the Yucatan Peninsula late tonight and early
Tuesday.  Zeta is forecast to strengthen again when it moves over
the southern Gulf of Mexico later on Tuesday and be at or near
hurricane strength when it approaches the northern Gulf Coast on
Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115
miles (185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on NOAA Hurricane
Hunter dropsonde data is 983 mb (29.03 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Zeta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast in the Hurricane Warning area near and to the north of where
the center makes landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Port Fourchon LA to Dauphin Island AL including Lake Borgne...4-6
ft
Intracoastal City LA to Port Fourchon LA including Vermilion
Bay...2-4 ft
Dauphin Island AL to Navarre FL including Mobile Bay and Pensacola
Bay...2-4 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...2-4 ft
Navarre FL to Yankeetown FL including Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint
Andrew Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves.  Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances.  For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL:  Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with local amounts of 12
inches are possible through Tuesday along and east-northeast of
Zetas track across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, the Cayman
Islands, and central to western Cuba.

An initial area of heavy rains will begin to impact the central Gulf
Coast Tuesday night, spreading north into the Tennessee Valley on
Wednesday. The core of the heavy rains associated with Zeta will
push northeast from eastern Louisiana across southern Mississippi,
Alabama and northern Georgia through Wednesday night, and through
the southern Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday.
Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts of 6 inches
are expected across these areas, resulting in flash, urban, small
stream, and minor river flooding.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane
Warning area in the Yucatan Peninsula in a few hours.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area on
the northern Gulf Coast late Wednesday, and tropical storm
conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area on the
northern Gulf Coast late Wednesday.

Leave a Reply