Monthly Archives: September 2020

Hurricane Sally Advisory # 16A

Alerts, Weather

BULLETIN
Hurricane Sally Intermediate Advisory Number 16A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
700 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2020

…HISTORIC FLOODING IS POSSIBLE FROM SALLY WITH EXTREME LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODING LIKELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ALONG PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST…

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT…1200 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…29.1N 88.0W
ABOUT 65 MI…110 KM E OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 105 MI…170 KM SSE OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…85 MPH…140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 2 MPH…4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…982 MB…29.00 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line
Florida
* Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* East of the Mouth of the Pearl River to Navarre Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* East of Navarre Florida to Indian Pass Florida
* Mouth of the Pearl River westward to Grand Isle Louisiana,
including Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas and metropolitan
New Orleans

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sally was located
near latitude 29.1 North, longitude 88.0 West. Sally is moving
toward the northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue this morning. A northward turn is expected this
afternoon, followed by a slow north-northeastward to northeastward
motion tonight and continuing through Wednesday night. On the
forecast track, the center of Sally will pass near the coast of
southeastern Louisiana today, and make landfall in the hurricane
warning area tonight or Wednesday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Although little change in strength is forecast until
landfall occurs, Sally is still expected to be a dangerous hurricane
when it moves onshore along the north-central Gulf coast.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125
miles (205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air
Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 982 mb (29.00 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
Key messages for Sally can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

Ocean Springs, MS to Dauphin Island, AL including Mobile Bay…6-9
ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake
Borgne…4-7 ft
Dauphin Island, AL to AL/FL Border…4-7 ft
AL/FL Border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL including Pensacola
Bay and Choctawhatchee Bay…2-4 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas…2-4 ft
Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River…1-3 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Chassahowitzka, FL including Saint
Andrew Bay…1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
damaging waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the
hurricane warning area this late afternoon or tonight. Tropical
storm conditions are occurring in portions of the warning area
across the western Florida Panhandle and Alabama, and these
conditions will gradually spread westward this morning and continue
into Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Sally is expected to be a slow moving system as it
approaches land producing 10 to 20 inches of rainfall with isolated
amounts of 30 inches along and just inland of the central Gulf Coast
from the western Florida Panhandle to far southeastern Mississippi.
Historic flooding is possible with extreme life-threatening flash
flooding likely through Wednesday. In addition, this rainfall will
lead to widespread moderate to major flooding on area rivers.

Sally is forecast to move inland early Wednesday and move
across the Southeast producing rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with
isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches, across portions of
southeastern Mississippi, southern and central Alabama, northern
Georgia, and the western Carolinas. Significant flash and urban
flooding is likely, as well as widespread minor to moderate
flooding on some rivers.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible this morning in
coastal areas of the Florida Panhandle and Alabama. The tornado
threat should increase and slowly spread inland the rest of today
into Wednesday.

SURF: Swells from Sally will continue to affect the coast from the
Florida Big Bend westward to southeastern Louisiana during the next
couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.

Tropical Storm Teddy. Advisory # 9

Weather

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Teddy Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
500 PM AST Mon Sep 14 2020

…TEDDY STRENGTHENING…
…EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY…

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…13.0N 44.0W
ABOUT 1170 MI…1880 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH…22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1002 MB…29.59 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Teddy was
located near latitude 13.0 North, longitude 44.0 West. Teddy is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A west-northwestward
motion at a slower forward speed is expected tonight through
Tuesday night, followed by a northwestward motion Wednesday and
Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast for the next
several days, and Teddy is expected to become a hurricane Tuesday
and could reach major hurricane strength on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
SURF: Large swells generated by Tropical Storm Teddy are expected
to reach the Lesser Antilles and the northeastern coast of South
America on Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

Hurricane Sally Advisory 14A

Weather

BULLETIN
Hurricane Sally Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
700 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020

…OUTER RAIN BANDS OF SALLY MOVING ONSHORE IN THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE…
…LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, AND FLASH
FLOODING LIKELY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STARTING
LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY…

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT…0000 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…28.8N 87.5W
ABOUT 100 MI…155 KM E OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 135 MI…215 KM SE OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…100 MPH…155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 MPH…8 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…988 MB…29.18 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Port Fourchon Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne
* Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Navarre Florida
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New
Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* East of of Navarre Florida to Indian Pass Florida

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sally was located
near latitude 28.8 North, longitude 87.5 West. Sally is moving
toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (8 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue through Tuesday morning. A northward turn is
likely by Tuesday afternoon, and a slow north-northeastward to
northeastward motion is expected Tuesday night through Wednesday
night. On the forecast track, the center of Sally will move near
the coast of southeastern Louisiana tonight and Tuesday, and make
landfall in the hurricane warning area Tuesday night or Wednesday.

Data from reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the maximum
sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast tonight and early Tuesday and Sally is
expected to be a dangerous hurricane when it moves onshore along the
north-central Gulf coast.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125
miles (205 km). A buoy offshore of Orange Beach, Alabama, recently
reported sustained winds of 49 mph (79 km/h) and a wind gust of 60
mph (97 km/h).

The minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force
Reserve and NOAA reconnaissance aircraft is 988 mb (29.18 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
Key messages for Sally can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake
Borgne…7-11 ft
Ocean Springs, MS to Dauphin Island, AL including Mobile Bay…6-9
ft
Dauphin Island, AL to AL/FL Border…4-7 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas…3-5 ft
Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River…2-4 ft
AL/FL Border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL including Pensacola
Bay and Choctawhatchee Bay…2-4 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL including
Saint Andrew Bay…1-3 ft
Burns Point, LA to Port Fourchon, LA…1-2 ft

Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm
Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation
values may be higher than those shown above.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
damaging waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the
hurricane warning area later tonight and Tuesday. Tropical storm
conditions expected to begin within the warning area during the
next few hours.

RAINFALL: Sally is expected to be a slow moving system as it
approaches land, producing 8 to 16 inches of rainfall with isolated
amounts of 24 inches over portions of the central Gulf Coast from
the western Florida Panhandle to far southeast Louisiana through the
middle of the week. Life-threatening flash flooding is likely. In
addition, this rainfall will likely lead to widespread minor to
isolated major flooding on area rivers.

Sally is forecast to move farther inland early Wednesday and track
across the Southeast producing rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with
isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches, across portions of eastern
Mississippi, central Alabama, northern Georgia and the western
Carolinas. Significant flash and urban flooding is likely, as well
as widespread minor to moderate flooding on some rivers.

Outer bands of Sally are expected to produce additional rainfall of
1 to 3 inches across the Florida peninsula today. This rainfall may
produce flash and urban flooding and prolong high flows and ongoing
minor flooding on rivers across central Florida.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two are possible through tonight over
coastal areas of the Florida Panhandle and southern Alabama. The
threat of tornadoes is expected to increase on Tuesday in these
areas, as well as over parts of southern Mississippi and extreme
southeast Louisiana.

SURF: Swells from Sally will continue to affect the coast from the
Florida Big Bend westward to southeastern Louisiana during the next
couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.

Hurricane Sally Advisory # 13A

Weather

BULLETIN
Hurricane Sally Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
100 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020

…SALLY MEANDERING OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO…
…EXPECTED TO RESUME A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION…

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT…1800 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…28.7N 87.1W
ABOUT 125 MI…200 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 160 MI…260 KM SE OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…90 MPH…150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 MPH…11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…986 MB…29.12 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Port Fourchon Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida Border
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne
* Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida Border
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New
Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Alabama/Florida Border to Indian Pass Florida
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to west of Morgan City

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Indian Pass to Ochlockonee River Florida

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sally was located
near by NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near
latitude 28.7 North, longitude 87.1 West. Sally has been meandering
over the north-central Gulf of Mexico today, but a west-northwest
near 7 mph (11 km/h) should resume later today. A decrease in
forward speed and a turn toward the northwest is forecast tonight
and a northward turn is expected sometime on Tuesday. On the
forecast track, the center of Sally will move over the north-central
Gulf of Mexico today, approach southeastern Louisiana tonight, and
make landfall in the hurricane warning area on Tuesday or Tuesday
night. Afterward, Sally is expected to move slowly
north-northeastward near the northern Gulf Coast through Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or
so, and Sally is expected to be a dangerous hurricane when it moves
onshore along the north-central Gulf coast.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125
miles (205 km).

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance
aircraft data is 986 mb (29.12 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
Key messages for Sally can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake
Borgne…7-11 ft
Ocean Springs, MS to Dauphin Island, AL…6-9 ft
Mobile Bay…5-8 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas…3-5 ft
Dauphin Island, AL to AL/FL Border…4-6 ft
Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River…2-4 ft
AL/FL Border to Chassahowitzka, FL including Pensacola Bay,
Choctawhatchee Bay, and Saint Andrew Bay…1-3 ft
Burns Point, LA to Port Fourchon, LA…1-2 ft

Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm
Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation
values may be higher than those shown above.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
damaging waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the
hurricane warning area tonight. Tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area today, and are expected to begin
within the warning area later today.

RAINFALL: Sally is expected to be a slow moving system as it
approaches land, producing 8 to 16 inches of rainfall with isolated
amounts of 24 inches over portions of the central Gulf Coast from
the western Florida Panhandle to far southeast Louisiana through the
middle of the week. Life-threatening flash flooding is likely. In
addition, this rainfall will likely lead to widespread minor to
isolated major flooding on area rivers.

Sally is forecast move farther inland early Wednesday and track
into the Southeast with rainfall of 6 to 12 inches possible across
portions of inland southeast Mississippi and Alabama. Significant
flash and urban flooding is likely, as well as widespread minor to
moderate flooding on some rivers.

Further heavy rain is then anticipated across portions of eastern
Tennessee, northern Georgia and western Carolinas Thursday into
Friday. Flash, urban, and minor river flooding is possible across
this region.

Outer bands of Sally are expected to produce additional rainfall of
1 to 3 inches across the Florida peninsula today. This rainfall may
produce flash and urban flooding and prolong high flows and ongoing
minor flooding on rivers across central Florida.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur this afternoon through
Tuesday over coastal areas of the Florida Panhandle, Mississippi,
Alabama, and extreme southeastern Louisiana.

SURF: Swells from Sally will continue to affect areas from the
west coast of the Florida peninsula westward through the coast of
southeastern Louisiana during the next couple of days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

Special Advisory # 13 Hurricane Sally intensifies.

Weather

BULLETIN
Hurricane Sally Special Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
1130 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020

…NOAA AND AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT REPORTS THAT SALLY HAS RAPIDLY
STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE…
…ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING EXPECTED…

SUMMARY OF 1130 AM CDT…1630 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…28.7N 87.0W
ABOUT 130 MI…210 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 165 MI…265 KM SE OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…90 MPH…150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 MPH…11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…986 MB…29.12 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Port Fourchon Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida Border
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne
* Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida Border
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New
Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Alabama/Florida Border to Indian Pass Florida
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to west of Morgan City

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Indian Pass to Ochlockonee River Florida

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 1130 AM CDT (1630 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sally was located
near latitude 28.7 North, longitude 87.0 West. Sally is moving
toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). This general motion
is expected to continue today, followed by a decrease in forward
speed and a turn toward the northwest tonight and a northward turn
sometime on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Sally
will move over the north-central Gulf of Mexico today, approach
southeastern Louisiana tonight, and make landfall in the hurricane
warning area on Tuesday or Tuesday night. Afterward, Sally is
expected to move slowly north-northeastward near the northern Gulf
Coast through Wednesday.

Data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that Sally has rapidly strengthened. The maximum
sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or so.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance
aircraft data is 986 mb (29.12 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
Key messages for Sally can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake
Borgne…7-11 ft
Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL Border…5-8 ft
MS/AL Border to AL/FL Border including Mobile Bay…4-7 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas…4-6 ft
Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River…3-5 ft
AL/FL Border to Chassahowitzka, FL including Pensacola Bay,
Choctawhatchee Bay, and Saint Andrew Bay…1-3 ft
Burns Point, LA to Port Fourchon, LA…1-3 ft

Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm
Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation
values may be higher than those shown above.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
damaging waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the
hurricane warning area tonight. Tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area today, and are expected to begin
within the warning area later today.

RAINFALL: Sally is expected to be a slow moving system as it
approaches land, producing 8 to 16 inches of rainfall with isolated
amounts of 24 inches over portions of the central Gulf Coast from
the western Florida Panhandle to far southeast Louisiana through the
middle of the week. Life-threatening flash flooding is likely. In
addition, this rainfall will likely lead to widespread minor to
isolated major flooding on area rivers.

Sally is forecast move farther inland early Wednesday and track
into the Southeast with rainfall of 6 to 12 inches possible across
portions of inland southeast Mississippi and Alabama. Significant
flash and urban flooding is likely, as well as widespread minor to
moderate flooding on some rivers.

Further heavy rain is then anticipated across portions of eastern
Tennessee, northern Georgia and western Carolinas Thursday into
Friday. Flash, urban, and minor river flooding is possible across
this region.

Outer bands of Sally are expected to produce additional rainfall of
1 to 3 inches across the Florida peninsula today. This rainfall may
produce flash and urban flooding and prolong high flows and ongoing
minor flooding on rivers across central Florida.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur this afternoon through
Tuesday over coastal areas of the Florida Panhandle, Mississippi,
Alabama, and extreme southeastern Louisiana.

SURF: Swells from Sally will continue to affect areas from the
west coast of the Florida peninsula westward through the coast of
southeastern Louisiana during the next couple of days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

Hurricane Teddy. Advisory # 8

Weather

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Teddy Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020

…TEDDY POISED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC…

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…12.8N 42.8W
ABOUT 1250 MI…2015 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
ABOUT 1275 MI…2055 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH…22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1004 MB…29.65 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Teddy was
located near latitude 12.8 North, longitude 42.8 West. Teddy is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and a westward
motion is expected to continue today, followed by a slightly
slower west-northwestward motion tonight and Tuesday. A turn
toward the northwest and a further decrease in forward speed is
forecast by Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Steady strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and
Teddy is forecast to become a hurricane by Tuesday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
SURF: Large swells generated by Tropical Storm Teddy are expected
to reach the Lesser Antilles and the northeastern coast of South
America on Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

Hurricane Paulette Advisory # 31

Weather

BULLETIN
Hurricane Paulette Advisory Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020

…HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND TORRENTIAL RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SOUTHERN EYEWALL CONTINUE OVER BERMUDA…

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…33.2N 64.8W
ABOUT 65 MI…105 KM N OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…100 MPH…155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 355 DEGREES AT 14 MPH…22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…970 MB…28.65 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are occurring
on Bermuda in the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Paulette was
located near latitude 33.2 North, longitude 64.8 West. Paulette is
moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general
motion should continue into this afternoon. A turn toward
the northeast is expected later tonight followed by a turn toward
the east-northeast and an increase in forward speed Tuesday night
through Friday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening through Tuesday night is likely
as Paultette acclerates northeastward to east-northeastward.
Gradual weakening is forecast to begin on Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km). A weather station in Wreck Road, Bermuda recently
reported a sustained wind of 80 mph (130 km/h) and a gust to 107 mph
(170 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions should persist into
the mid afternoon hours.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves into this afternoon.

RAIN: Paulette will bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda through
today, with rainfall of 3 to 6 inches expected.

SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the
east coast of the United States. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

Tropical Storm Teddy. Advisory # 7

Weather

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Teddy Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
500 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020

…DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM TEDDY…
…EXPECTED TO BECOME A POWERFUL HURRICANE LATER THIS WEEK…

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…13.4N 40.4W
ABOUT 1110 MI…1785 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1405 MI…2260 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH…22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1004 MB…29.65 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Teddy was
located near latitude 13.4 North, longitude 40.4 West. Teddy is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A continued
west-northwestward motion is expected for the next day or two
followed by a turn toward the northwest by mid-week.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is anticipated, and
Teddy is forecast to become a hurricane in a couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
SURF: Large swells generated by Tropical Storm Teddy are expected
to reach the Lesser Antilles and the northeastern coast of South
America on Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

Tropical Storm Sally Advisory # 11A

Weather

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sally Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
700 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020

…SALLY A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO…
…LIKELY TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, HURRICANE-FORCE
WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
STARTING LATE TODAY…

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT…1200 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…28.4N 87.4W
ABOUT 115 MI…185 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 165 MI…265 KM SE OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…65 MPH…100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH…13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…994 MB…29.35 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Port Fourchon Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida Border
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne
* Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama Border
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New
Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Mississippi/Alabama Border to Indian Pass Florida
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to west of Morgan City

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Mississippi/Alabama Border to the Alabama/Florida Border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Indian Pass to Ochlockonee River Florida

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sally was
located near latitude 28.4 North, longitude 87.4 West. Sally is
moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). This general
motion is expected today, followed by a decrease in forward speed
and a turn to the northwest tonight and a northward turn sometime on
Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Sally will move over
the north-central Gulf of Mexico today, approach southeastern
Louisiana this afternoon, and make landfall in the hurricane warning
area on Tuesday. Afterward, Sally is expected to move slowly
north-northeastward near the northern Gulf Coast through Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected over the next day or
so, and Sally is forecast to become a hurricane by tonight, with
additional strengthening possible before the center crosses the
northern Gulf Coast.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center. NOAA buoy 42039, located about 130 miles (215 km)
south-southeast of Pensacola, Florida, recently reported peak
sustained winds of 49 mph (79 km/h) and a gust to 58 mph (94 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.35 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
Key messages for Sally can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs including Lake
Borgne…7-11 ft
Ocean Springs to MS/AL Border…5-8 ft
MS/AL Border to AL/FL Border including Mobile Bay…4-6 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas…4-6 ft
Port Fourchon to Mouth of the Mississippi River…3-5 ft
AL/FL Border to Navarre including Pensacola Bay…2-4 ft
Navarre to Chassahowitzka including Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint
Andrew Bay…1-3 ft
Burns Point to Port Fourchon…1-3 ft

Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm
Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation
values may be higher than those shown above.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
damaging waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area starting late today. Tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area during the next few hours, and are
expected within the warning area beginning this morning.

RAINFALL: Sally is expected to be a slow-moving system as it
approaches land producing 8 to 16 inches of rainfall with isolated
amounts of 24 inches over portions of the central Gulf Coast from
the western Florida Panhandle to far southeast Louisiana through the
middle of the week. Life-threatening flash flooding is possible. In
addition, this rainfall will likely lead to widespread minor to
isolated major flooding on area rivers.

Sally is forecast to move farther inland early Wednesday and track
into the Southeast with rainfall of 6 to 12 inches possible across
portions of inland southeast Mississippi and Alabama. Significant
flash and urban flooding is likely, as well as widespread minor to
moderate flooding on some rivers.

Further heavy rain is then anticipated across portions of eastern
Tennessee, northern Georgia and western North Carolina Thursday into
Friday. Flash, urban, and minor river flooding is possible across
this region.

Outer bands of Sally are expected to produce additional rainfall of
1 to 3 inches across the Florida peninsula today. This rainfall may
produce flash and urban flooding and prolong high flows and ongoing
minor flooding on rivers across central Florida.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur this afternoon through
Tuesday over coastal areas of the Florida Panhandle, Mississippi,
Alabama, and extreme southeastern Louisiana.

SURF: Swells from Sally will continue to affect areas from the
west coast of the Florida peninsula westward through the coast of
southeastern Louisiana during the next couple of days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

Hurricane Paulette Advisory # 30A

Weather

BULLETIN
Hurricane Paulette Intermediate Advisory Number 30A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
800 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020

…EYE OF PAULETTE MOVING AWAY FROM THE ISLAND OF BERMUDA…
…HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SOUTHERN EYEWALL AFFECTING THE ISLAND…

SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST…1200 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…32.9N 64.7W
ABOUT 40 MI…65 KM N OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…95 MPH…155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…970 MB…28.64 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are occurring
on Bermuda or will begin again in a couple of hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of the eye of Hurricane
Paulette was located over northeastern Bermuda or near latitude 32.9
North, longitude 64.7 West. Paulette is moving toward the
north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the north is
expected soon and should continue into this afternoon. A faster
motion toward the northeast is expected by this evening and
should continue through Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 95 mph (155 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is likely when Paulette
turns northeastward and moves away from Bermuda tonight through
Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km). Hurricane-force winds are returning as the southern
portion of Paulette’s eyewall continues to move over the island.
Tropical-storm-force winds will continue possibly into the early
afternoon across the entire island.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on hurricane
hunter aircraft and surface observations on Bermuda is 970 mb
(28.64 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are returning to Bermuda from the south
and southwest as the southern eyewall passes over the island soon.
Hurricane conditions should subside around mid-morning, but
tropical storm conditions will persist into late-morning and
possibly early afternoon.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves into this afternoon.

RAIN: Paulette will bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda through
today, with rainfall of 3 to 6 inches expected.

SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the
east coast of the United States. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.