Monthly Archives: September 2020

Tropical Storm Wilfred born Advisory # 1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Wilfred Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL232020
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 18 2020

...WILFRED FORMS IN THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
...GET OUT THE GREEK ALPHABET FOR THE REST OF 2020...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.9N 32.4W
ABOUT 630 MI...1015 KM WSW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Wilfred was
located near latitude 11.9 North, longitude 32.4 West. Wilfred is
moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this 
general motion is expected for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is possible today, and weakening should 
start this weekend and continue into next week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None

Tropical Depression 22 Advisory # 4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Twenty-Two Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020
1000 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020

…SLOW-MOVING DEPRESSION CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH…

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…23.8N 93.9W
ABOUT 275 MI…445 KM ENE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 255 MI…405 KM SE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 7 MPH…11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1005 MB…29.68 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
Interests along the western Gulf of Mexico coast should monitor the
progress of the depression.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Twenty-Two was located near latitude 23.8 North, longitude 93.9
West. The depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 7 mph
(11 km/h), and this general motion is expected through early
Saturday. A slow westward motion is forecast to begin late Saturday
or Saturday night, and this motion will likely continue into early
next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the
depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today. The
system could be near or at hurricane strength by Sunday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
SURF: Swells are expected to increase and reach the coast of Texas
and the Gulf Coast of Mexico over the weekend, generated by a
combination of the depression and a cold front entering the
northern Gulf of Mexico. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

Hurricane Teddy remains a Category 4 Storm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Teddy Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
500 AM AST Fri Sep 18 2020

…TEDDY REMAINS A POWERFUL HURRICANE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC…
…LARGE SWELLS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC INCREASING RIP CURRENT THREAT…

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…21.6N 55.4W
ABOUT 550 MI…890 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 935 MI…1510 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…130 MPH…215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…947 MB…27.97 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interest in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Teddy.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located
near latitude 21.6 North, longitude 55.4 West. Teddy is moving
toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion
is expected to continue for the next couple of days, followed by a
turn to the north by early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Teddy is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in strength are expected
during the next day or so.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles
(370 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 947 mb (27.97 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting the Lesser
Antilles and the northeastern coast of South America and should
spread westward to the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and
the east coast of the United States by the weekend. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

T.D. 22 may be named today

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Twenty-Two Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020
400 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020

…SLOW MOVING DEPRESSION FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TODAY…

SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…22.9N 94.1W
ABOUT 245 MI…400 KM ENE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 285 MI…460 KM SE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 6 MPH…9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1005 MB…29.68 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
Interests along the western Gulf of Mexico coast should monitor the
progress of the depression.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Twenty-Two was located near latitude 22.9 North, longitude 94.1
West. The depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 6 mph
(9 km/h), and this general motion is expected through early
Saturday. A slow westward motion is forecast to begin late Saturday
that will likely continue into early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the
depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today. The
system could be near or at hurricane strength by Sunday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
SURF: Swells are expected to increase and reach the coast of Texas
and the Gulf coast of Mexico over the weekend, generated by a
combination of the depression and a cold front entering the
northern Gulf of Mexico. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

Teddy Category Four. Advisory # 22

BULLETIN
Hurricane Teddy Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
500 PM AST Thu Sep 17 2020

…TEDDY STRENGTHENS TO A POWERFUL CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE…
…LARGE SWELLS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC INTO THIS WEEKEND INCREASING RIP CURRENT THREAT…

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…20.1N 54.1W
ABOUT 575 MI…925 KM NE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
ABOUT 1070 MI…1725 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…140 MPH…220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH…20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…945 MB…27.91 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Teddy was located
near latitude 20.1 North, longitude 54.1 West. Teddy is moving
toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue for the next few days.

Data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near
140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts. Teddy is a category 4
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional
strengthening is expected tonight, and some fluctuations in
intensity are possible Friday and Saturday. A weakening trend is
expected to begin late this weekend.

Teddy is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up
to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 945 mb (27.91 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are reaching the Lesser
Antilles and the northeastern coast of South America and should
spread westward to the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and
the east coast of the United States by the weekend. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

Here we go again. Trop. Depression Advisory # 1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Twenty-Two Special Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020
600 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020

…TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO…
…EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY OVER THE WESTERN GULF INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK…

SUMMARY OF 600 PM CDT…2300 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…21.9N 94.3W
ABOUT 230 MI…370 KM E OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 330 MI…535 KM SE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 5 MPH…7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1005 MB…29.68 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
Interests along the western Gulf of Mexico coast should monitor the
progress of the depression.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 600 PM CDT (2300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Twenty-Two was located near latitude 21.9 North, longitude 94.3
West. The depression is moving toward the northeast near 5 mph (7
km/h), and it is expected to generally meander over the western
Gulf of Mexico into the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and
the depression could become a tropical storm on Friday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
None

Hurricane Teddy stronger. Advisory # 20

BULLETIN
Hurricane Teddy Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
500 AM AST Thu Sep 17 2020

…TEDDY STRENGTHENS OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC…
…EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY FRIDAY…

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…18.3N 52.3W
ABOUT 625 MI…1010 KM ENE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…105 MPH…165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…970 MB…28.65 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located
near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 52.3 West. Teddy is moving
toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue through the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple
of days, and Teddy could become a major hurricane Thursday night or
Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles
(405 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are reaching the Lesser
Antilles and the northeastern coast of South America and should
spread westward to the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and
the east coast of the United States by the weekend. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

Hurricane Teddy. Advisory # 17

BULLETIN
Hurricane Teddy Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020

…TEDDY EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS…

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…16.5N 49.7W
ABOUT 775 MI…1245 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…100 MPH…155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…973 MB…28.74 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located
near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 49.7 West. Teddy is moving
toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion
is forecast to continue for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening is expected over the next couple of
days, and Teddy could become a major hurricane by late tonight.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles
(315 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are expected to reach the
Lesser Antilles and the northeastern coast of South America
today and should spread westward to the Greater Antilles, the
Bahamas, and Bermuda by Friday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

Sally – Tropical Storm Advisory 22A

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sally Intermediate Advisory Number 22A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
100 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020

…CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OCCURRING OVER
PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA…

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT…1800 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…30.9N 87.1W
ABOUT 30 MI…45 KM NNE OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…70 MPH…110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 5 MPH…7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…982 MB…29.00 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning from the Mississippi/Alabama border to the
Okaloosa/Walton County line has been changed to a Tropical Storm
Warning.

The Storm Surge Warning from Dauphin Island, Alabama, to the
Alabama/Florida border has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Alabama/Florida border to the Walton/Bay County Line Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Mississippi/Alabama border eastward to Indian Pass Florida

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
occurring within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sally was
located by NWS Doppler radar and surface observations near latitude
30.9 North, longitude 87.1 West. Sally is moving toward the north-
northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h), and a north-northeastward to
northeastward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected
this afternoon and tonight. A faster northeastward motion is
forecast Thursday and Thursday night. On the forecast track, the
center of Sally will move across the extreme western Florida
panhandle and southeastern Alabama through early Thursday, move
over central Georgia on Thursday, and move over South Carolina
Thursday night.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected as the center
moves farther inland this afternoon and tonight, and Sally is
forecast to become a tropical depression by Thursday morning.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center. A sustained wind of 49 mph (80 km/h) and a gust
of 76 mph (122 km/h) was recently reported at an unofficial
observing site at Tate High School, near Pensacola, Florida. A
sustained wind of 47 mph (76 km/h) and a gust to 60 mph (96 km/h)
was recently observed at the Okaloosa Fishing Pier, near Okaloosa
Island, Florida.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
Key messages for Sally can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Through this afternoon, Sally will produce additional
rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches with localized higher amounts
possible along and just inland of the central Gulf Coast from west
of Tallahassee, Florida to Mobile Bay, Alabama. Storm totals of 10
to 20 inches to isolated amounts of 35 inches are expected. Historic
and catastrophic flooding, including widespread moderate to major
river flooding, is unfolding.

Sally will track across the Southeast through Friday, producing the
following rainfall totals:

Central Alabama to central Georgia: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated
amounts of 12 inches. Significant flash and urban flooding is
likely, as well as widespread minor to moderate flooding on some
rivers.

Western South Carolina into western and central North Carolina: 4 to
6 inches, with isolated amounts of 9 inches. Widespread flash and
urban flooding is possible, as well as minor to moderate river
flooding.

Southeast Virginia: 2 to 5 inches, with isolated amounts of 7
inches. Scattered flash and urban flooding is possible, as well as
scattered minor river flooding.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

AL/FL Border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL including Pensacola
Bay and Choctawhatchee Bay…3-5 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL to Walton/Bay County Line, FL…2-4
ft
Walton/Bay County Line, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL including Saint
Andrew Bay…1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
damaging waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue in portions of the
warning areas through tonight.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes may occur today and tonight across
portions of the Florida Panhandle, southeast Alabama, and southwest
Georgia.

SURF: Swells from Sally will continue to affect the Gulf Coast
from the Florida Big Bend westward to southeastern Louisiana during
the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

Hurricane Sally Advisory 21A

BULLETIN
Hurricane Sally Intermediate Advisory Number 21A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
700 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020

…HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS OCCURRING IN PENSACOLA FLORIDA…
…CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING LIKELY ALONG PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST…

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT…1200 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…30.4N 87.6W
ABOUT 15 MI…25 KM NNE OF GULF SHORES ALABAMA
ABOUT 25 MI…40 KM WSW OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…100 MPH…155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 3 MPH…6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…967 MB…28.56 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued west of Dauphin
Island, Alabama.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Dauphin Island Alabama to the Walton/Bay County Line Florida

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Okaloosa/Walton County line
Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* East of the Okaloosa/Walton County line Florida to Indian Pass
Florida
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Mouth of the Pearl River

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 12 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are occurring
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should have been completed.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
occurring within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of the eye of Hurricane Sally
was located by NOAA Doppler weather radars near latitude 30.4 North,
longitude 87.6 West. Sally is moving toward the north-northeast near
3 mph (6 km/h). A north-northeastward to northeastward motion at a
slightly faster forward speed is expected later today and tonight,
followed by a faster northeastward motion on Thursday. On the
forecast track, the center of Sally will move across the extreme
western Florida panhandle and southeastern Alabama through early
Thursday, and move over central Georgia Thursday afternoon through
Thursday night.

Doppler weather radar data indicate that the maximum sustained
winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is
expected as the center moves inland today and tonight.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125
miles (205 km). A sustained wind of 74 mph (119 km/h) and a gust to
92 mph (148 km/h) were recently reported at the Pensacola Naval Air
Station in Pensacola, Florida.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface
observations is 967 mb (28.56 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
Key messages for Sally can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Through this afternoon, Sally will produce additional
rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches with localized higher amounts
possible along and just inland of the central Gulf Coast from west
of Tallahassee, Florida to Mobile Bay, Alabama. Storm totals of 10
to 20 inches to isolated amounts of 35 inches is expected. Historic
and catastrophic flooding is unfolding. In addition, this rainfall
will lead to widespread moderate to major river flooding.

Sally is forecast to turn northeastward after making landfall today
and move across the Southeast through Friday, producing the
following rainfall totals:

Southern and central Alabama to central Georgia: 4 to 8 inches, with
isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. Significant flash and urban
flooding is likely, as well as widespread minor to moderate flooding
on some rivers.

Western South Carolina into western and central North Carolina: 4 to
6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 9 inches. Widespread
flash and urban flooding is possible, as well as minor to moderate
river flooding.

Southeast Virginia: 2 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of
7 inches. Scattered flash and urban flooding is possible, as well as
scattered minor river flooding.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

AL/FL Border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL including Pensacola
Bay and Choctawhatchee Bay…4-7 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL to Walton Bay County Line, FL…2-4
ft
Dauphin Island, AL to AL/FL Border including Bon Secour Bay…2-4 ft
Walton Bay County Line, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL including Saint
Andrew Bay…1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
damaging waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are spreading onshore within the
hurricane warning area in Florida and Alabama. Tropical storm
conditions will continue in portions of the warning areas through
tonight.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes may occur today and tonight across
portions of the Florida Panhandle, southern Alabama, and
southwestern Georgia.

SURF: Swells from Sally will continue to affect the coast from the
Florida Big Bend westward to southeastern Louisiana during the next
couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.