BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Seventeen Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
500 AM AST Mon Sep 07 2020

…DEPRESSION MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC…
…EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY…

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…17.3N 42.1W
ABOUT 1200 MI…1930 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1380 MI…2225 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 MPH…9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1006 MB…29.71 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Seventeen was located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 42.1 West.
The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9
km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next few
days with a gradual increase in forward speed.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slow strengthening is forecast over the next few days, and the
depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
None.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Sep 6 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Thunderstorm activity associated with a well-defined low pressure 
system located about midway between the west coast of Africa and the 
northern Leeward Islands continues to get better organized. A 
tropical depression is expected to form later tonight or on Monday 
while the low moves westward or west-northwestward across the 
central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

Showers and thunderstorms continue to steadily increase and are 
showing signs of organization in association with a low pressure 
system located just west of Senegal. Environmental conditions 
are conducive for development, and a tropical depression is 
expected to form within the next day or so while the system moves 
generally westward over the far eastern tropical Atlantic. Interests 
in the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of this system 
as gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall are likely there Monday 
night and Tuesday. A Tropical Storm Watch or Warning could be 
required for the islands by early Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

A tropical wave located over the central Caribbean Sea south of 
Jamaica and extending northward across the island is producing 
limited shower and thunderstorm activity.  Upper-level winds are 
forecast to remain unfavorable for development for the next several 
days while the system moves westward, and tropical cyclone formation 
is not expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

A trough of low pressure located just to the southeast of Bermuda 
is producing disorganized cloudiness and showers.  Some slow 
development of this system is possible during the next several days 
while it moves west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

A new tropical wave is forecast to emerge off the west coast of 
Africa by the middle to latter part of this week. Some gradual
development will be possible thereafter while the system moves 
generally westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Sep 6 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An area of low pressure located about midway between the west coast 
of Africa and the Leeward Islands is gradually becoming better 
defined.  However, the associated showers and thunderstorms are 
still not well organized.  Gradual development of this system is 
expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form tonight or on 
Monday while it moves westward or west-northwestward across the 
central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Showers and thunderstorms are showing signs of organization in 
association with a broad area of low pressure located just 
off the coast of western Africa. Environmental conditions 
are conducive for development, and a tropical depression is 
expected to form within the next couple of days while it moves 
generally westward over the far eastern tropical Atlantic. Interests 
in the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of this system 
as gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall is likely there Monday 
night and Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

A tropical wave located over the central Caribbean Sea continues to 
produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Development, if 
any, of this system should be slow to occur during the next day or 
two while it moves westward across the central and western 
Caribbean Sea.  After that time, unfavorable upper-level winds 
should limit its formation chances.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

A trough of low pressure located just southeast of Bermuda is 
producing disorganized cloudiness and showers.  Some slow 
development of this system is possible during the next several days 
while it moves west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Sep 5 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Depression Omar, located about 500 miles east-northeast of Bermuda.

Shower activity has become less organized in association with a 
trough of low pressure located about midway between the west coast 
of Africa and the Windward Islands.  Significant development 
of this system is not expected, as it will likely be hindered by 
the interaction with a large tropical wave located a few hundred 
miles to its east.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

A tropical wave and area of low pressure located over the eastern 
tropical Atlantic continues to produce a large area of 
disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Gradual development of 
this system is expected while it moves westward to 
west-northwestward, and a tropical depression is likely to form late 
this weekend or early next week when the system reaches the central 
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Another tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of 
Africa on Sunday.  Gradual development of this system is then 
expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle 
of next week while it moves generally westward over the far eastern 
tropical Atlantic. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Sep 4 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Depression Omar, located about 475 miles east-northeast of Bermuda.

A nearly stationary and poorly-defined area of low pressure is 
located over the east-central tropical Atlantic about midway 
between the west coast of Africa and the Windward Islands.  This 
system continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms, 
and some slow development could occur during the next couple of 
days before it merges or interacts with the large tropical wave 
currently located just west of the Cabo Verde Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

A tropical wave and area of low pressure located just west of the 
Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large area of disorganized 
showers and thunderstorms.  Gradual development of this system is 
expected as it moves westward to west-northwestward, and a tropical 
depression is likely to form late this weekend or early next week 
when the system reaches the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Another tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of 
Africa on Sunday.  Gradual development of this system is then 
expected, and a tropical depression could form by the middle of 
next week while it moves generally westward over the far eastern 
tropical Atlantic. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Sep 4 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Depression Omar, located about 400 miles east-northeast of Bermuda.

A non-tropical area of low pressure is located over the 
north-central Atlantic about 500 miles south-southeast of Cape 
Race Newfoundland.  This low is expected to move 
north-northeastward near 15 mph, and some slight subtropical or 
tropical development of this system is possible before it reaches 
cooler waters tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

A nearly stationary broad area of low pressure is located over the 
east-central tropical Atlantic about midway between the west coast 
of Africa and the Windward Islands.  This system continues to 
produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms, and gradual 
development is possible after the larger tropical wave located near 
the Cabo Verde Islands passes to the north of this system on Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

A tropical wave located just west of the Cabo Verde Islands is 
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. 
Gradual development of this system is expected as it moves 
westward to west-northwestward, and a tropical depression is likely 
to form earlynext week when the system reaches the central 
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Another tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of 
Africa on Sunday.  Gradual development of this system is then 
expected, and a tropical depression could form by the middle of 
next week while it moves generally westward over the far eastern 
tropical Atlantic. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Sep 3 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Nana, inland near the Guatemala-Mexico border, and on 
Tropical Depression Omar, located a few hundred miles northeast of 
Bermuda.

A broad area of low pressure located over the eastern tropical 
Atlantic several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde 
Islands is producing a small area of disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms.  Gradual development is possible early next week as 
the larger tropical wave located off of the coast of Africa passes 
to the north of the system on Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

A tropical wave located off the coast of west Africa is merging with 
another disturbance located a couple of hundred miles south of the 
Cabo Verde Islands, resulting in an extensive area of disorganized 
showers and thunderstorms.  Development of this system is likely to 
be slow during the next couple of days while it moves west- 
northwestward at about 15 mph.  After that, a tropical depression 
is more likely to form early next week over the central tropical 
Atlantic where environmental conditions are forecast to be more 
favorable for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Another tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of 
Africa over the weekend.  An area of low pressure is expected to 
form from the wave, and some development of this low will be 
possible early next week while it moves generally westward over the 
far eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Sep 2 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Omar, located a few hundred miles northwest of Bermuda, 
and on Tropical Storm Nana, located a couple hundred miles 
northeast of the coast of Honduras.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure 
located about midway between the Windward Islands and west Africa 
remain disorganized.  Some development of this system, however, is 
possible this week as it meanders over the eastern and central 
tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Surface observations and satellite derived data indicate that a 
tropical wave has emerged off the coast of Africa.  The wave is 
expected to merge with a disturbance centered a couple of hundred 
miles southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands in the next day or so. 
Gradual development of this system is then possible, and a tropical 
depression could form by this weekend while it moves westward over 
the eastern and central tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Nana are issued under 
WMO header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Nana are issued under 
WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.