Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Sep 11 2020

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Paulette and Tropical Storm Rene, both located over the
central Atlantic Ocean.

Shower and thunderstorm activity located over the northwestern and
central Bahamas and the adjacent waters continues to shows signs of
organization. In addition, surface observations indicate that
pressures have fallen over the area since yesterday and, along with
wind and satellite data, suggest that a broad area of low pressure
could be forming between the northwestern Bahamas and South Florida.
This system is forecast to move westward at about 10 mph, and it
could become a tropical depression while it is near South Florida
tonight. But if not, the disturbance is expected to become a
tropical depression while it moves slowly west-northwestward over
the northeastern Gulf of Mexico this weekend and early next week.
Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce
locally heavy rainfall over portions of the Bahamas, South Florida,
and the Florida Keys during the next couple of days, and interests
there, as well as along the northern and eastern Gulf coast, should
monitor its progress.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent.

Showers and thunderstorms have increased a little bit over the
north-central Gulf of Mexico near a surface trough of low pressure.
Some slow development of this system is possible while it moves
westward and then southwestward over the northern and western Gulf
of Mexico through the middle of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.

A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is
located a few hundred miles south and southwest of the Cabo Verde
Islands and is producing a large area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Development of this system is forecast, and a
tropical depression is expected to form within the next few days
while the system moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph across
the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.

Another area of disturbed weather is located just off of the west
coast of Africa. Environmental conditions could support development
during the next few days, and a tropical depression could form over
the far eastern tropical Atlantic early next week while the system
moves slowly westward. Upper-level winds could become less
conducive for development by Monday or Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent.