Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Aug 17 2020

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A fast-moving tropical wave located a couple of hundred miles
east of the Windward Islands continues to produce disorganized
shower and thunderstorm activity. This disturbance is expected to
move westward at about 20 mph during the next few days, and that
fast forward speed is likely to limit significant development while
the system approaches the Windward and southern Leeward Islands
today, and moves across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea on
Tuesday and Wednesday. After that time, however, the system is
expected to move more slowly westward across the western Caribbean
Sea, where upper-level winds could become more conducive for the
development of a tropical depression during the latter part of this
week. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty
winds are expected over portions of the Windward and southern
Leeward Islands beginning today through Tuesday morning.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.

Another tropical wave located over the eastern tropical Atlantic
to the south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing
disorganized cloudiness and showers. The wave is forecast to move
westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph during the next few
days, and environmental conditions are expected to become more
conducive for the development of a tropical depression during the
middle-to-latter part of this week while the system moves across the
central and western portions of the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Aug 17 2020

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A fast-moving tropical wave located about 400 miles east of the
Windward Islands continues to produce disorganized shower and
thunderstorm activity. This disturbance is expected to move
westward at about 20 mph during the next few days, and that fast
forward speed is likely to limit significant development while the
system approaches the Windward and southern Leeward Islands today,
and moves across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea on Tuesday
and Wednesday. After that time, however, the system is expected to
move more slowly westward across the western Caribbean Sea, where
upper-level winds could become more conducive for the development
of a tropical depression during the latter part of this week.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds
are expected over portions of the Windward and southern Leeward
Islands beginning this evening through Tuesday morning.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.

Another tropical wave located over the far eastern tropical Atlantic
well to the south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing
a large area of cloudiness and disorganized showers. The wave is
forecast to move westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph
during the next few days, and environmental conditions are expected
to become more conducive for the development of a tropical
depression during the middle-to-latter part of this week while the
system moves across the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent.

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Josephine Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020
500 AM AST Sun Aug 16 2020

…JOSEPHINE LOSING ORGANIZATION AS IT PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND VIRGIN ISLANDS…

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…20.3N 64.0W
ABOUT 155 MI…250 KM NNW OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 190 MI…305 KM NE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH…24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1009 MB…29.80 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of this system.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Josephine was
located near latitude 20.3 North, longitude 64.0 West. Josephine is
moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through today. A turn
toward the northwest is expected by tonight, with Josephine
forecast to slow down and recurve toward the north and northeast on
Tuesday and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Josephine
is expected to become a remnant low or dissipate by Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
to the northeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Josephine is expected to cause storm-total rainfall of
1 to 3 inches over portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the
Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. Isolated minor flooding is
possible in Puerto Rico through Monday.

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kyle Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122020
1100 AM AST Sat Aug 15 2020

…TROPICAL STORM KYLE HEADING OUT TO SEA…

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…39.0N 65.6W
ABOUT 360 MI…580 KM ESE OF PROVIDENCE RHODE ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 21 MPH…33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1000 MB…29.53 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kyle was
located near latitude 39.0 North, longitude 65.6 West. Kyle is
moving toward the east-northeast near 21 mph (33 km/h) and this
general motion is forecast to continue today. A turn toward the
east is expected by early Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some slight additional strengthening is possible
today before Kyle becomes post-tropical later this weekend.
Gradual weakening is then expected through early next week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
None

BULLETIN Tropical Storm Josephine Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020 1100 AM AST Sat Aug 15 2020 …CENTER OF JOSEPHINE PASSING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS… SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION ———————————————– LOCATION…19.1N 60.2W ABOUT 200 MI…320 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH…75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH…26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1008 MB…29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS ——————– There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ———————- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Josephine was located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 60.2 West. Josephine is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next day or two followed by a turn toward the northwest early next week. On the forecast track, the center of Josephine is expected to pass to the northeast of the Leeward Islands today and tonight. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through today. After that, Josephine is expected to weaken as it encounters unfavorable upper-level winds. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) to the north of the center. The minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ———————- RAINFALL: Josephine is expected to cause storm-total rainfall of 1 to 3 inches over portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. Isolated minor flooding is possible in Puerto Rico through Monday.

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kyle Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122020
500 AM AST Sat Aug 15 2020

…TROPICAL STORM KYLE HEADING TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS OF THE
NORTHERN ATLANTIC…

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…38.7N 68.0W
ABOUT 280 MI…450 KM SE OF PROVIDENCE RHODE ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH…75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 21 MPH…33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1002 MB…29.59 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kyle was
located near latitude 38.7 North, longitude 68.0 West. Kyle is
moving toward the east-northeast near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days.
A turn to the east along with an increase in forward speed is
expected early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some additional strengthening is possible during the next day or so.
Kyle is forecast to become post-tropical on Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
None

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Josephine Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020
500 AM AST Sat Aug 15 2020

…AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE
JOSEPHINE LATER THIS MORNING…

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…18.9N 58.4W
ABOUT 310 MI…500 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH…75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH…24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1005 MB…29.68 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of
this system.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Josephine was
located near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 58.4 West. Josephine is
moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next day or two
followed by a turn toward the northwest late this weekend or early
next week. On the forecast track, the center of Josephine is
expected to pass to the northeast of the Leeward Islands over the
weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected through today. After that,
Josephine is expected to weaken as it encounters unfavorable
upper-level winds.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Josephine is expected to cause storm-total rainfall of
1 to 3 inches over portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the
Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. Isolated minor flooding is
possible in Puerto Rico through Monday.