Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Mon Jul 27 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Shower activity associated with a broad area of low pressure located about 1000 miles east of the Windward Islands has changed little in organization since this morning. Environmental conditions are expected to become somewhat more favorable for development during the next few days and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form during that time frame. The system is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph and it could bring heavy rain to portions of the Leeward Islands by late Wednesday, regardless of development. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should continue to monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.