000
WTNT33 KNHC 080250
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cristobal Advisory Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
1000 PM CDT Sun Jun 07 2020
…CRISTOBAL BEGINS TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA…
…HEAVY RAINFALL AND STORM SURGE CONTINUE ALONG THE GULF COAST
FROM SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE…
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT…0300 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…30.3N 90.2W
ABOUT 20 MI…35 KM NNW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH…75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH…17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…993 MB…29.33 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs Mississippi
* Lake Borgne
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Florida line
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For
a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal
was located near latitude 30.3 North, longitude 90.2 West. Cristobal
is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and
this motion with an increase in forward speed is expected through
Monday. A turn toward the north is forecast on Monday night,
followed by a northeastward motion late Tuesday and Wednesday. On
the forecast track, the center of Cristobal will move inland across
southeastern Louisiana through early Monday morning, and northward
across Arkansas and Missouri Monday afternoon into Tuesday, and
then move over Wisconsin Tuesday night and into Canada on
Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Gradual weakening will continue overnight, and
Cristobal is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression Monday
morning.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center, primarily over water to the east and southeast of
the center. An observing site on the Okaloosa Florida Fishing
Pier has recently measured 39 mph winds (63 km/h) and a gust to 49
mph (80 km/h). A NOAA automated site at Dauphin Island has
recently reported sustained winds of 41 mph (67 km/h) and a gust to
48 mph (78 km/h).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs MS including Lake
Borgne…3-5 ft
Morgan City LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River…1-3 ft
Ocean Springs MS to Okaloosa/Walton County Florida line, including
Mobile Bay and Pensacola Bay…1-3 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds and will likely extend along the coast well to the
east of the center. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical
Storm Warning area along the northern Gulf coast through tonight.
RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce storm total rainfall
accumulations of 5 to 10 inches across portions of the central to
eastern Gulf Coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley, with isolated
amounts to 15 inches. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with
local amounts to 6 inches are expected across portions of the Mid to
Upper Mississippi Valley and Northern Plains near and in advance of
Cristobal. This rainfall will likely lead to flash flooding and
widespread flooding on smaller streams across portions of the
central Gulf Coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley. New and
renewed significant river flooding is possible along the central
Gulf Coast and into the Mississippi Valley.
TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible tonight across
southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, and southern Alabama.
SURF: Swells generated by Cristobal will affect portions of the
northern and eastern Gulf coast through Monday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
