Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Oct 17 2024

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to form during the middle part
of next week well offshore of southwestern Mexico. Thereafter,
gradual development is possible as the system moves westward at 10
to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…30 percent.

Forecaster Hagen

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Oct 17 2024

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. East of the Leeward Islands (AL94):
A poorly-defined trough of low pressure located a couple of hundred
miles east of the Leeward Islands is producing some disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Development, if any, of this disturbance
should be slow to occur while it moves quickly westward to
west-northwestward at around 20 mph, passing near the Virgin Islands
and Puerto Rico on Friday, then near Hispaniola and the southeastern
Bahamas on Saturday. By late this weekend, further development is
not expected due to strong upper-level winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…20 percent.

2. Western Caribbean Sea (AL95):
Satellite images show a broad area of low pressure over the western
Caribbean Sea is gradually becoming better defined, and nearby buoy
observations indicate surface pressures are falling. The associated
shower and thunderstorm activity has increased since yesterday, and
environmental conditions appear conducive for some additional
development over the next couple of days. A short-lived tropical
depression or storm could form before the system moves inland over
Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Saturday. Regardless
of development, locally heavy rainfall is likely across portions of
Central America and southern Mexico through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days…medium…40 percent.

Forecaster Reinhart